Dems Outperformed 2024 in 38 out of 40 Races in 2025

Polls in several key races for governor in 2025/26 are also encouraging.

So far in 2025, Democratic candidates in state and federal races have outperformed previous results in 38 out of 40 elections. They outperformed in all 3 congressional races and 35 out of 37 races for state senate and representative.

Political pundits and TV hosts always tend to focus on the overall national approval rating of the party, which is not great. But those numbers don’t dictate election results, and include a lot of Democrats who also say they disapprove of the party because they are upset with leadership at the national level. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t still motivated to show up at the polls to help their local candidates defeat Trump acolytes.

Election data from The Downballot shows that the average Democratic overperformance margin for all races in 2025 is an astonishing 15 points. Democrats flipped 3 deep red districts that Trump won big in 2024:

• Mike Zimmer flipped an Iowa Senate District that Trump won by 21 points.

• James Malone flipped a Pennsylvania Senate seat that Trump won by 15 points.

• Catelin Drey flipped an Iowa Senate seat that Trump won by 11 points.

Drey’s win was especially significant because it broke the Republican supermajority in the Iowa Senate, which puts a check on the governor’s veto power and provides the ability to block far-right appointments. She also defeated an extremist who opposes all abortion - even for rape victims, compared abortion to the Holocaust, and downplayed the J6 insurrection.

Democrats have pulled off big upsets and overperformed across the board in even the deepest of red states. In Oklahoma, a state where Trump won every county in the last 3 elections, Amanda Clinton outperformed Kamala Harris’s results in her district by 50 points to win a state rep seat. 24-year-old Keishan Scott overperformed by 35 points to win a seat in South Carolina. Bracy Davis and Dondre Wise overperformed by 20 points to win Senate and House seats in Florida.

One of the two races where a Democrat underperformed was last night, where Xp Lee won by 22% to fill the MN House seat previously held by Melissa Hortman, who was assassinated by a right-wing extremist. Kamala Harris won the district by 27% points. However, a closer look at the numbers shows that a shift of only 213 votes would’ve put Lee at 27%. Lee still beat the Republican handily, as Hortman’s constituents kept her seat in Democratic hands.

Many of these races also had a significant impact on the balance of power in their states. Democrats protected one-seat majorities in the Virginia House, the Virginia Senate, the Minnesota Senate, and the Pennsylvania House with their wins. They also restored the tie in the Minnesota House with Lee’s win last night. That is 5 legislative chambers that could have flipped already if Democrats had not performed so well.

There have also been 3 special elections for congress this year, and Democrats have overperformed in all 3. Even in the races they lost. Democrat Josh Weil lost his race in FL by 14 points in a district Trump won by 30, Gay Valimont lost by 14 points in a FL district Trump won by 36, and James Walkinshaw won his race in VA by 50 points in a district Harris won by 34; improving on Harris’ already dominant performance in the district by 16 points.

There is another special election for congress in Arizona next Tuesday, which is especially noteworthy for several reasons. Former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva is running to replace her father who died of lung cancer. Raúl Grijalva won the district by 22 points in 2024. This race is in a key swing state that Trump won in 2024 but has two Democratic senators and a Democratic governor.

This race will also happen just two days after a huge memorial service this Sunday at Arizona State University for Charlie Kirk, who is from Arizona and has his Turning Point USA organization headquartered there. Trump and Vance are speaking at the event along with many prominent Arizona Republicans. Republicans are looking to post a strong showing in this race so they can trumpet a ‘Kirk bump’ heading into the governor’s race in 2026.

Why is this happening? Trump’s approval ratings are in the toilet, prices are up, unemployment is up, economic growth has flattened, tariffs are creating havoc for businesses, and the Republican budget is deeply unpopular. Democrats also continue to run superior candidates who have been focused on these kitchen table issues while Republicans rant about culture wars and pledge total fealty to an unpopular president.

Some of the biggest races of 2025/26 are for governor, where Virginia, New York, New Jersey, Ohio, Alaska and Arizona will hold key elections. The current polling looks strong for Democrats with overperformances projected almost across the board from previous results:

Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in VA (49%-40%).

Kathy Hochul leads Republican Elise Stefanik in NY (52%-27%).

Mikie Sherill leads Republican Jack Ciattarelli in NJ (47%-37%).

Katie Hobbs leads either of her Republican opponents by 2% in AZ.

Tim Ryan trails Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in OH (41%-49%).

Mary Peltola leads her closest Republican challenger in AK by 29 points.

So, despite the fact that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries remain unpopular with the rank and file of the party and in national polls overall, that does not seem to matter to voters around the country who want the best representation possible for their community.

You can read my daily column on politics here if you missed my Today in Politics Bulletin yesterday.