In a wide-ranging interview on MeidasTouch, host Ben Meiselas was joined by data experts Simon Rosenberg of Hopium Chronicles and Tom Bonier, CEO of TargetSmart, to unpack what early election data is telling us about the 2024 race. With early voting well underway in critical battleground states, Rosenberg and Bonier provided insights into key trends and shifts that could shape the outcome of the election. While it’s still early, the data already reveals some significant surprises, particularly concerning turnout and demographic patterns.
Surprising Gender Gap Trends
One of the most striking takeaways from the early data comes from the analysis of voting patterns in Pennsylvania and Michigan. Bonier noted a larger-than-expected gender gap in early voting, with women making up an even bigger share of the vote than they did at the same point in the 2020 election. "We expected to see a narrowing of the gap this time, particularly among younger men, because of concerted Republican efforts to target these voters," Bonier explained. "But instead, the gap has widened."


This gender gap is especially significant among younger voters, where women are turning out in larger numbers relative to men, a trend Bonier links to the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, which overturned Roe v. Wade. "Young women have been the most energized demographic in the post-Dobbs political environment," Bonier said, adding that Republican attempts to attract young male voters through figures like Joe Rogan and events like UFC fights don’t appear to be translating into a noticeable impact on early turnout.
Republican Early Voting Efforts Falling Short
Another key theme of the interview was the Republican Party’s attempts to improve early voting numbers, a tactic they notoriously struggled with in 2020. Following Donald Trump’s unfounded claims that mail-in voting was rife with fraud, many Republican voters were reluctant to vote early or by mail in 2020, and the party faced substantial deficits in early voting. The GOP vowed to fix this tactical error in 2024, but the early data suggests that these efforts have not borne fruit.
Bonier explained, “We anticipated seeing Republicans account for a much larger share of the early vote this time around, especially given the emphasis they’ve placed on correcting their mistakes from 2020. But so far, in key states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, that just isn’t happening. Democrats continue to hold the same large early voting advantages they had in 2020.”
In Pennsylvania, for instance, early voting data shows a 31-point lead for Democrats, a margin nearly identical to what was seen in 2020. “Where are the Republican efforts? We’re not seeing them materialize in the data,” Bonier remarked.
High Turnout Signals Strong Voter Engagement
Beyond the demographic shifts and partisan dynamics, both Rosenberg and Bonier stressed the importance of overall turnout trends. According to Bonier, all signs point to high turnout in 2024, similar to what was observed in the last two election cycles. Early voting records are being shattered in states like Georgia, where the first two days of in-person voting saw unprecedented numbers.
This high level of voter engagement, particularly in key Democratic constituencies, suggests that Republicans may face an uphill battle on Election Day. Bonier highlighted the high turnout among Black voters, particularly older Black women in Michigan, where Democrats have traditionally held strong. "It’s not just about the early vote. Voter registration efforts in these communities have been off the charts, and that enthusiasm is showing up in the early vote," he said.
Debunking Republican Spin
A notable part of the conversation centered on how Republicans are spinning the early voting data, particularly in Georgia. Bonier pointed out that despite claims from some on the right that Republicans are performing well in early voting, the reality is that the data tells a different story. While some rural Republican areas may show a higher percentage of returned ballots, Bonier emphasized that raw vote totals are what matter. In Democratic strongholds like Fulton and DeKalb counties, voter turnout is far outpacing those smaller Republican areas.
Simon Rosenberg added that the lack of Republican spin on early voting is a telling sign. "If Republicans had good news to share about early voting, they’d be shouting it from the rooftops," he said. "Instead, we’re seeing them talk about betting markets and crypto-based “prediction” models, which is pure spin because they don’t have the data to back up their claims."
The Problem with Polymarket
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The Importance of Early Voting
Both Rosenberg and Bonier ended the conversation by urging voters to take advantage of early voting. "Voting early is a critical piece of the puzzle," said Rosenberg. "When you vote early, you allow campaigns to shift resources to lower-propensity voters, which increases overall turnout." He also noted that Democrats performed exceptionally well in 2022 thanks to their strong early voting efforts, which built significant margins heading into Election Day.
Bonier agreed, emphasizing the role early voting plays in creating a "firewall" for Democrats. "We’re seeing those firewalls build in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. While it’s important to recognize that nothing is guaranteed, those early voting margins give Democrats a cushion going into Election Day, which Republicans will struggle to overcome."
As the early voting data continues to roll in, Rosenberg and Bonier remain optimistic about Democratic prospects in 2024, but they stress that high turnout and early voting are essential for maintaining that edge. The November election, they noted, could technically be won in October if Democrats continue to vote in large numbers ahead of Election Day.
Watch the full interview with Simon and Tom ad-free exclusively here on Substack! If you appreciate this data and analysis, please consider becoming a paid member of Meidas+ today!
Visit Hopium Chronicles to read more from Simon.
Visit TargetSmart to see Tom’s latest data.
It really shouldn't be close at all, there is no choice for reasonable people. An articulate, intelligent, conscientious, energetic, successful person with a vision for moving America forward in excellent ways vs. a convicted felon who instigated a lethal insurrection against the country/Constitution he took an oath to protect as well as defying the espionage act with the theft of top secret documents and who has nothing to offer America except cozying up to dictators, advancement of white supremacy, division and tax cuts for the very wealthy.
During Democrats, lower and middle class increase standard of living. During Republicans, billionaires become richer and lower and middle class Americans needs are ignored. That's a FACT.
Imagine wearing these kinds of t-shirts in a red state 👇 🤣
teespring.com/stores/libtees-2
Kamala: The only choice. She will preserve our Democracy.
Can't wait to vote for our FIRST woman president!
Very well said.
------------ TO EVERYONE WHO INTENDS TO MAIL IN YOUR BALLOT ---------
PLEASE MAKE SURE TO DATE IT, SIGN IT AND FOLLOW ALL THE OFFICIAL DIRECTIONS.
MR. DEJOY, A BIG TRUMP FAN, STILL RUNS THE POST OFFICE, SO MAKE SURE TO MAIL YOUR BALLOT IN NOW, NO LATER THAN OCTOBER 25th TO MAKE SURE IT ARRIVES ON TIME AND WILL BE COUNTED. IN ADDITION, FOR YOUR OWN AND YOUR FAMILY'S HEALTH AND PRESERVATION I SUGGEST YOU VOTE BLUE UP AND DOWN YOUR BALLOT FOR ALL STATE AND FEDERAL CANDIDATES. MAY WE ALL HAVE A HAPPY HOLIDAY SEASON IF ALL GOES WELL.
I would not trust the post office with my ballot. I want to make sure it gets there. Because I was watching my 2020 ballot, I realized that a week after I sent it from the same town it still was not received. I was able to get another ballot and get it in before the election, I will never trust mailing it again. I will always bring it to a drop box!
Just sad that some people have to travel many, many miles to find one.
Since Covid we deliver our ballots directly to election headquarters. Drop box right inside the office.
Voted early in New Mexico (maybe not so important) and still writing Vote Forward letters to low propensity voters in North Carolina.
I voted yesterday here in Arizona. I got a mail in ballot and dropped it in a drop box. Vote blue!
Energy and enthusiasm are proving BIG for the Dems...it certainly was hoped for after Joe Biden abandoned his reëlection bid, but honestly, these early-vote numbers are YUUGE! And notably, the female v male divide is crazy!
GOP hoped tRump would pump up the young-male cohort, but their historical low-participation numbers don't seem to be altered by tRump's macho pitch...too busy cracking 'nother can of Coors Lite to give a fuck.
I'm overseas and have already voted. Democrats Abroad is calling everyone to make sure they're voting.
I live in Pennsylvania, I requested a mail in ballot. I made sure I signed it, dated, double checked, etc. The one very important thing that I DID NOT do, was to check & see if it was a pre-paid envelope. As I was dropping it in the mail box, I saw the 'First Class Postage Here', and luckily caught it in time! The bad thing is, I don't have a stamp, or a car (had to sell my car due to being hospitalized for so long with Covid complications - long story) or a way to get to the post office to get a stamp :/ I couldn't wait to be able to say, "Yay, I voted!!" Oh well.... I will grab my cane/walker and hike it if I have to (I live in small-town red rural PA), just to do my part to beat tRump!! Ain't no mountain 🏔️ high enough to keep this Gen X'er from voting!!! 🗳️📊✔️
I will get it done this weekend.
I do not think the poles are correct at all. I got my ballot three days ago, Vote Democrat down the ballot, took it to my polling place and now wait to see that Kamala will be the first woman President of this great country. I pray it will be a landslide !! Vote Please and go Blue for democracy !!
Thank you Ben, Simon and Tom for your excellent reporting. For anyone who feels anxious about this election, quell your nerves by Doing Something. I mailed 200 GOTV postcards to Wisconsin today. This weekend I’ll be distributing door hanger voting guides in my local California precinct. Call your local Democratic HQ to find out where help is needed. Doing Something feels good!
Early voting is also a way to avoid the debacles that may emerge during the main event. Like crazies deciding to turn up and ‘audit’ the activities.
Why is all the Pennsylvania early vote mail, as opposed to in person? Like in Georgia.
Please please have these guys on every single day. They are truth tellers. I’m so grateful for them. They are credible and smart.
Tom and Simon were very interesting and I like their data and their information about elections!
I found a state-by-state table describing in detail how each state reports election information - BUT - that was a 2020 project done by 538.com. It was really quite informative. Here is the link:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/
The closest to it for 2024 seems to be from the National Conference of State Legislatures with table 16:
https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin
My question:
Where is the information cited above coming from? It's not vote count information from the state(s). It can't be related to the actual ballots. I don't understand how folks know what the gender/age/party breakdown is....
Help?
Thanks.
tbh polls aren't accurate and shouldn't be trusted