Easier Said Than Drilled

Trump’s bravado meets reality as oil executives politely refuse to bankroll chaos, exposing the yawning chasm between his grand promises and the hard math of global energy markets.

Guest article by Michael Cohen

Benjamin Franklin had a knack for slicing through bullshit with surgical precision. “A well done is better than well said,” he wrote; colonial shorthand for put up or shut up. If Franklin were alive today, he wouldn’t need a quill. He’d need a laugh track and a stiff drink, because Donald Trump has turned well said into a performance art, entirely divorced from well done.

We’ve heard this soundtrack before. To name just a few; Trump said he’d end the Russia–Ukraine war in 24 hours. He didn’t. He said Israeli hostages would be home before he even took office. They weren’t. He promised to fix the economy in his first 100 days; an arbitrary deadline he loves because it sounds impressive, even when it’s meaningless. Now add another whopper to the ever-growing pile: Trump wants $100 billion in oil investment poured into Venezuela, a country whose own oil executives politely described as “uninvestable.”

Let that word sink in. Uninvestable. That’s not a partisan insult. That’s not a Democrat talking point. That’s ExxonMobil’s CEO, Darren Woods, sitting in the White House, explaining; carefully, diplomatically, and with corporate understatement, that his company has had its assets seized twice in Venezuela. And no, they’re not rushing back for a third round of economic Russian roulette.

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But Trump, undeterred by reality as always, announced that after a January 3rd raid that seized Nicolás Maduro, the United States would “unleash” Venezuela’s oil. He promised lower energy prices. He told oil executives, essentially, Don’t worry about Venezuela; you’re dealing with me. Which should terrify any serious business leader, because if there’s one thing Wall Street understands, it’s that Trump’s word is not collateral.

This is the same man who thinks shouting “We’re open for business!” magically creates physical security, legal certainty, and a functioning regulatory framework. Spoiler alert: it doesn’t. Oil isn’t sold on vibes and bravado. It’s sold on contracts, courts, stability, and trust; four things Trump routinely trashes before breakfast.

Yes, Venezuela has vast reserves. In real estate terms, as one smaller oil executive gushed, it’s “prime real estate.” But here’s the part Trump never understands: prime real estate in a war zone with no title insurance, no rule of law, and armed men deciding ownership at gunpoint is not an investment. It’s a guaranteed hostage situation.

Even the most optimistic analysts say that to triple Venezuela’s oil production by 2040; two decades from now, it would require roughly $8–9 billion per year. Not Trump’s fantasy $100 billion. And that’s under conditions of political stability that, at the moment, exist only in Trump’s imagination and on his teleprompter.

The executives who attended Trump’s White House meeting did what seasoned professionals do when trapped in a room with a man who confuses ambition with competence: they nodded, praised the “opportunity,” and committed exactly zero serious dollars. As one former State Department energy envoy translated the moment perfectly, they were being “as polite as humanly possible… without committing actual dollars.” In Trump-speak, that’s called a standing ovation. In reality, it’s a slow-motion rejection.

Here’s the deeper problem, and why this matters beyond oil markets and balance sheets. Trump governs the same way he sells: he announces first, pressures later, and assumes the world will bend to his certainty. But oil executives aren’t Fox News hosts. They don’t clap because he speaks loudly. They don’t invest because he promises dominance. They’ve already run the numbers; and the numbers don’t lie, even when Trump does.

Meanwhile, the administration is seizing oil tankers, selectively rolling back sanctions, and routing proceeds into U.S.-controlled accounts, all while claiming this will somehow stabilize Venezuela and lower gas prices for Americans. That’s not a plan. That’s improvisation dressed up as strategy. That’s piracy.

Trump wants Americans to believe that chaos creates leverage. In reality, chaos creates risk; and capital hates risk. The oil industry isn’t afraid of drilling. It’s afraid of unpredictability. And Trump is the human embodiment of unpredictability, wrapped in a red tie and a press release.

Benjamin Franklin understood something Trump never will: saying the thing is easy. Doing the thing requires discipline, patience, and credibility. Trump has mastered the art of well said. Venezuela is just the latest reminder that when it comes to well done, he’s drilling dry holes; again.

And the people who end up paying for it, as always, aren’t the men in the boardroom or the politicians at the podium. It’s the American public, sold another grand promise that was never investable to begin with.

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