Is Texas the redistricting wake-up call the Democratic Party needed?

Democrats can’t win tomorrow’s elections by chasing yesterday’s map

Guest article by Meghan Hays, Democratic strategist and former special assistant to the president and director of message planning for President Joe Biden.

Editorial credit: T. Schneider / Shutterstock.com

For years, Democrats have fixated on turning Texas blue — a seductive dream fueled by shifting demographics and grassroots organizing. I worked on Wendy Davis’ failed governor’s race in 2014, which was filled with hope for Democrats all over the country — yet here we are ten years later still chasing that dream. The problem now is that the dream has a lot more challenges and there is a more urgent reality: the population is shifting west and south, and the next census will highlight that shift.

People are moving at alarming rates — the South is emerging as the country's 2030 hot spot, poised to reshape both Congress and the Electoral College. States like Texas and Florida are expected to gain multiple seats in Congress. Other Sun Belt states — Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee — are anticipated to pick up at least one seat, with mountain states like Arizona, Idaho, and Utah also gaining ground.

Which means Democratic strongholds are losing ground. California could lose multiple seats, same with New York and Illinois. All while Pennsylvania, Oregon, Minnesota, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin could each lose one seat.

These shifts could alter the balance of power in Congress but will also have huge impacts on how candidates run for President.

So what exactly does this mean for the presidential electoral map? The potential coming shift or reapportionment to the Electoral College would mean Democrats can win with the historic “Blue Wall” plus some small wins. But by 2032, that same configuration may net them only 259 electoral votes — 11 short of the 270 needed to win.

So what becomes critical in this new map? Battleground states will be redefined, at least until the next census in 2040. These are no longer nice-to-haves — they’re strategic imperatives. The many “paths to victory” Democrats once saw become a lot fewer.

This all means adjusting priorities today — not in six years. All of the Democratic Party’s committees — DNC, DSCC, DCCC, DGA — and the party’s presidential hopefuls must look at where the electoral votes will be in 2032, not just in 2024. It’s not enough to defend blue turf — Democrats have to plant seeds where the population is moving, even if the payoff takes years.

The reality is this: demography is destiny only if you do the work. The population shift southward is reshaping the political map in ways that could either doom Democrats or open new paths to power. The question is whether the party can look past Texas as a singular obsession and see the broader movement — before it’s too late.

If the Democratic Party does not pay attention NOW, it risks overlooking where the battleground is shifting in real time and we will be having redistricting fights like what is happening in Texas every year.

Here’s what needs to change:

• Invest in sustained organizing — Democrats must focus on populous, rapidly growing states across the South and Southwest, working beyond the election cycles to build infrastructure, candidate pipelines, and voter engagement.

• Fight for fair maps and voting rights — as these new districts emerge, resisting gerrymandering and protecting access to the ballot will be vital.

• Reallocate resources now — the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Governors Association, and presidential campaigns must gear efforts toward states like Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona — and even Florida — not Texas alone.

Meghan Hays is a Democratic strategist and former special assistant to the president and director of message planning for President Joe Biden.