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As part of our commitment here at the Midas Touch Network to delivering the best analysis of voting data that's available, we're bringing on Matthew Dowd to talk about not just the polling that's out there, because I know lots of you have lots of questions about that, but also what we're seeing on the ground in the early vote.
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who's voting early can we extrapolate any trends at this point you know this is part of our continuing series here where we only bring on the midas touch network the best data analysts available for this stuff that's why we bring you simon rosenberg tom bonnier and matthew dowd
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I don't think there's anybody who's really as experienced as you, Matthew. You've run Democratic campaigns, Republican campaigns. You were a chief strategist in the Bush-Cheney election in 2004. You worked in the Schwarzenegger campaign. You're a leader in the pro-democracy movement today. But you know data. That's the point I want to make on the outset.

Matthew Dowd: Why Kamala Harris’s Lead is Stronger Than It Seems in a Tight Race

In a MeidasTouch interview, political strategist Matthew Dowd explains why early voting trends and Trump's campaign missteps could signal a Harris win.

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In a recent interview with MeidasTouch, veteran political strategist and former Bush-Cheney chief strategist Matthew Dowd broke down the 2024 election landscape, offering insights into the factors shaping the final days of the race. Dowd, known for his deep understanding of both Democratic and Republican campaigns, shared data-backed perspectives on polling stability, early voting patterns, and the potential impact of recent controversies surrounding Donald Trump.

At the outset, Dowd addressed the consistent 2-3 point national lead Vice President Kamala Harris has held over Donald Trump, based on the latest nonpartisan polling. Despite the media’s focus on “junk polls” skewing perceptions, Dowd emphasized that stable data consistently points to Harris maintaining a narrow but resilient edge. “This race has been about a three-point race for two months,” Dowd said, “and it’s not changed that much, despite the media’s fixation on certain things.” Cautioning against outlier data, he underscored that Harris’s advantage is reflected both nationally and within key battleground states.

One of Dowd’s more surprising predictions involved North Carolina. Dowd cited early voting data showing Harris potentially holding a lead, suggesting that Republicans may be underestimating the depth of anti-Trump sentiment even among traditionally Republican voters. “I think she squeaks out North Carolina, which will be a huge signal to Republicans,” Dowd said, explaining that a Harris win there would indicate a “political realignment” in favor of pro-democracy coalitions over MAGA-aligned Republicanism, which does not represent traditional conservatism.

Throughout the interview, Dowd dispelled misconceptions about early voting trends, particularly the assumption that higher Republican early turnout directly benefits Trump. “A lot of it is cannibalized votes—Republicans moving their Election Day votes to early voting,” he noted. Dowd warned against drawing premature conclusions, particularly in states like Nevada, where early Republican turnout has been emphasized but may not predict final results. Instead, he urged viewers to look at turnout shifts in the final days, referencing how Democratic voters, particularly independents, can create last-minute shifts that surprise media narratives.

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Dowd also highlighted two recent controversies as potentially demotivating Trump’s base. First, retired General John Kelly’s stark criticism of Trump as a “fascist” reignited scrutiny of Trump’s authoritarian tendencies. Second, Trump’s ill-received event at Madison Square Garden that further polarized voters. Dowd explained that these incidents could drive away moderate suburban voters and people of color, stating, “When he calls one group out, they know he feels the same way about their group.” These stories, Dowd said, risk deepening the divide within Trump’s base and pushing moderates toward Harris.

Looking ahead to the final week, Dowd urged voters to “run through the tape” by staying engaged in mobilizing and voting efforts. He warned that Trump’s recent stumbles could have lasting consequences, citing his record of campaign mismanagement, and pointed to the importance of maintaining voter motivation to secure a Harris win. Dowd’s closing advice to viewers was clear: “It’s okay to worry, but it’s not okay to sit in anxiety. Just do the work.”

In a campaign season marked by polling uncertainty and unexpected events, Dowd’s insights offer a reminder of the steady momentum within the Harris camp—and of how each remaining day of the race could determine the country’s future.

We are offering this interview to you ad-free here on Meidas+. If you appreciate our work, please consider becoming a paid subscriber today and help support independent media.

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Discussion about this video

User's avatar
John Hennigan's avatar

I believe Harris is much stronger than the incompetent pollsters and pundits suggest. She will win big!

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Catherine Diffley's avatar

I'm with you. I always thought democrats would win. If Biden stayed in the race It may have been closer But I have faith in the American people who see trump for what he is And once Kamala Harris harry Harris took over I believe it'll be a landslide.

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Bonnie Sue Miller's avatar

It's imperative that we all adjust our sails and ignore the negative noise from the MAGAs. Love Matthew Dowd and respect his opinion substantially. How about +5 for Harris at the end on November 6th?

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Lance Khrome's avatar

Media and pollsters concentrating way too much on the mythical "hidden tRump voter" - the low -propensity "bro" vote that if actually voting MAY result in a tRump "landslide" - and rather downplaying the enormous gender gap in REAL votes now being cast, where women are overwhelmingly showing up vs the male cohort. Oh, well, let them look stupid the "day after", it will be much deserved.

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LWms's avatar

Are the pollsters considering the fatigue dt supporters are feeling? Those leaving the maga crowd, for the more energetic (and more exciting) Harris/Walz Campaign!! Kamala WILL win if WE ALL VOTE!!!

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Jane's avatar

I am a greeter at an early voting place south of the Tampa area in Florida - I have experienced many of the Republican voters thank us (the Democrats) for being there and confess that they were voting Harris/Walz. Some were former military people - it has been quite surprising! One Republican who stopped to talk said that many are voting for Harris but they are just not talking about it. Happily hopeful.

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Crissy Bellon's avatar

The American people are voting "Democracy and Decency", not liberal or conservative. Love it. 🩵 Right-on!! ✊🏽

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andi (andrea) horowitz's avatar

Love, democracy and decency are today’s new categories of republicans and democrats. Wisest words heard today. ❤️

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Audrey Williams's avatar

The vice president will be the next President of these United States. And MAGA will want to start some mess or maybe Trump will leave the country.

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Fox.or.Ox's avatar

This article points out a common mistake of the Media, by referring to the Trump/Republicans' strategy as conservative. Many conservatives have stressed Trump's strategy has nothing to do with the conservative ideology. I am disappointed in Meidas touch for this article and I am a paid subscriber.

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Bob Botelho's avatar

I agree that the media consistently and incorrectly refers to Republicans as conservatives when they are radical, at the least, and frequently extremists. This mischaracterization is used by the GOP to claim most Democratic policies are radical when most recent legislation hasn't been far left of center. Look at the Biden administration accomplishments.

Was it radical to implement a long needed national infrastructure plan? No. In fact, it was genius to get it done during the pandemic while Dems the held Congress.

How about bringing high-tech chip manufacturing jobs back to America? DOH, no! tRump said he'd bring jobs back to America but, nope, he didn't. The Biden admin did. I'll stop there, though there is more.

Bottom line, Democrats have proven their policies are not radical but needed for the American people because they passed Congress with bi-partisan support and for what they're accomplishing to improve our economy for the vast majority of Americans; especially those earning less than $400,000/year.

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Michael Meenan's avatar

This race is not close. Consider these factors:

- Women vote.

- Democratic performance in the midterm and special elections.

- Cross-over Republican voters for Harris. Name one Democrat crossing over for Trump.

- Support for Ukraine

- January 6th is still fresh

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TINA RONEY's avatar

Kamala Harris : Article 3 of the constitution does not allow her to certify trumps’ presidency, due to his being an insurrectionist…??

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Kris Mountain Gardener's avatar

That didn’t age well.

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A. Hofferkamp's avatar

Mellon is the MAGA.

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Erin's avatar

My fear is about what I’m now reading and that is besides Trump and Johnson planning on the House electing Trump no matter what is that they plan to reduce the electoral vote. How does that happen? Is there a loophole we’re not aware of?

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Oct 30
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Christina Flores's avatar

Well said!!!!

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0:40
I don't think there's anybody who's really as experienced as you, Matthew. You've run Democratic campaigns, Republican campaigns. You were a chief strategist in the Bush-Cheney election in 2004. You worked in the Schwarzenegger campaign. You're a leader in the pro-democracy movement today. But you know data. That's the point I want to make on the outset.