Hi all, Ben here. It’s Monday. I hope you enjoyed your weekend. It was so inspiring to see so many of you on the ground during No Kings Day. Whether you were able to make it to a protest, or were uplifting the messaging of the protesters online, I just want to say thank you for being engaged in our democracy.
Now, I know some of you prefer the written updates, and some of you prefer video, so today I’m providing you with both! Let’s dive in, shall we?
Let’s start with what Donald Trump woke up and decided to do this morning—threaten to commit what would amount to mass war crimes on social media.
Trump posted that if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened immediately, the United States will “obliterate” Iran’s electric grid, oil infrastructure, Kharg Island, and even desalination plants. In plain English, that’s a threat to wipe out a country’s ability to produce water and electricity. That’s collective punishment targeting civilians. This was alongside yet another claim that the U.S. is in “serious negotiations” with Iran to end the war. The message was sent right on schedule, just before markets opened. This has become a pattern. Trump pumps “progress” and chaos at the same time, right when global markets are most sensitive. MeidasTouch editor-in-chief Ron Filipkowski even predicted over the weekend we’d see another one of these posts. And there it was.
Trump is claiming negotiations are going great. He told Bloomberg the war is going “unbelievably well.” There’s no evidence of that. None.
In reality, Iran’s leadership is signaling the opposite. Their demands remain maximalist. They’re not budging on the Strait of Hormuz, their missile programs, or regional influence. They want reparations, security guarantees, and even apologies. Their foreign ministry is calling U.S. proposals “excessive and illogical.” That’s not the language of a deal that’s about to happen.
Trump now says the U.S. is negotiating with Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf and we’ll “find out in about a week” if he’s workable. That’s another moving target. Another vague promise. Nobody credible believes these talks are anywhere near resolution. Ghalibaf has been one of the main officials calling Trump’s games in recent days. Over the weekend, he wrote on social media: “Heads-up: Pre-market so-called “news” or “Truth” is often just a setup for profit-taking. Basically, it’s a reverse indicator. Do the opposite: If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long. See something tomorrow? You know the drill.”
So to sum it up: Trump said last night and Rubio said this morning that they could not name the person they were negotiating with or he would be killed by others in Iran. But now he claims he’s negotiating with someone who has repeatedly denied it.
Sure.
Meanwhile, Iran continues to openly mock Trump.
State media joked they reopened the Strait of Hormuz—but only for two Chinese oil tankers. Trump yesterday claimed Iran is sending the U.S. a “tribute” of 20 oil tankers. What’s actually happening appears to be a limited arrangement involving ships under Pakistani flags. Trump is trying to take credit for something that has nothing to do with him or the United States.
Iran’s embassy in South Africa posted that American soldiers are dying for Israel while Iranian soldiers die for their homeland. They shared images of coffins draped in American flags, saying the U.S. is hammering nails into its own coffin. They’re framing this as a long war of endurance, not something that ends with a quick deal.
Now let’s talk about what’s actually happening on the ground.
Iran and its allies are continuing retaliatory strikes. Israel’s Haifa oil refinery was hit earlier today. Kuwait confirmed a strike on a power and water facility that killed a worker and caused major damage over the weekend. Satellite images show fires along key oil pipelines in the UAE that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Iran appears to be targeting alternative export routes used by U.S. allies.
There are also reports Iran is using deception tactics in the skies—launching decoy-equipped missiles that trigger expensive air defense responses. Hundreds of interceptor missiles, each costing millions, are being fired at essentially decoys. Then the real strikes come. This is modern warfare. And it’s exposing how unprepared Trump’s operation is.
And then there’s the humanitarian toll. On the first day of the war, the U.S. used a new ballistic missile that had never been used in combat. A New York Times analysis revealed it struck civilian areas—a sports hall, an elementary school, residential buildings—killing at least 21 people, including children. So when Trump talks about things going “unbelievably well,” understand what that actually looks like on the ground.
Now zoom out globally. Traditional U.S. allies continue to rebuke Trump and the U.S.
Italy’s defense minister said outright they do not support this war and weren’t even consulted. He warned that the consequences could be catastrophic for the global economy and compared the trajectory to the early days of COVID spreading across the world. Germany’s chancellor warned that if the war expands, the impact on Europe could be as severe as the pandemic. Spain has gone even further. They’ve closed their airspace to U.S. military aircraft involved in the war and banned the use of key bases like Rota and Morón. That’s a direct operational constraint on U.S. military logistics. Trump has spent years alienating allies. Now, in a moment of global crisis, they’re stepping back instead of stepping in.
Back home, the messaging from Trump’s own team is a mess. Marco Rubio went out and called Iranian leaders lunatics and religious zealots. Hmm… Sounds familiar. Then in the same breath suggested there are reasonable people they can work with.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to reassure markets by saying the U.S. will eventually regain control of the Strait of Hormuz. Eventually.
The economic fallout is real. This war has disrupted a greater share of global oil supply than any previous shock. There’s no spare capacity to make up the difference. Even if the war ended today, the ripple effects would be massive. Oil, gas, fertilizer, petrochemicals…everything tied to that region is being impacted. And as of now, there is no end in sight.
Meanwhile, Axios is reporting that Republicans in Congress are considering cutting federal health spending to help pay for a budget that includes up to $200 billion for the war and immigration enforcement. The American people just want health care. Republicans are giving them another Middle East war.
At the same time, the Department of Homeland Security shutdown continues. TSA workers went weeks without pay. Airport lines spiraled into chaos. Now that back pay is finally arriving, wait times are easing because workers can actually afford to show up again. One TSA worker said he could finally buy food, gas, and medication, per CNN. Others are trying to catch up on rent before eviction. And many TSA agents say that they’ve only been given a fraction of what they are actually owed.
This crisis didn’t have to happen and could have been over. The Senate passed a bipartisan bill to fund DHS with everything except ICE and Border Patrol. Trump and House Republicans refused. They want more money for ICE, despite it already being incredibly well-funded, and no reforms. So the shutdown drags on.
And because the chaos never stops, Trump also took time this morning to attack the Supreme Court again, calling it “stupid” and “dumb” as he tries to pre-spin a potential and likely loss in the case on birthright citizenship.
Then, of course, there are the stories where the weird meets the corrupt. The U.S. Army has launched an investigation after Apache helicopters flew low over a “No Kings” protest in Nashville and then maneuvered near Kid Rock’s home. Kid Rock himself posted video saluting the helicopters. Why is Kid Rock getting private Apache flybys from the U.S. military?
Here’s the bottom line. Trump is threatening catastrophic destruction while claiming peace is around the corner. He’s claiming victories that don’t exist. He’s alienating allies. He’s pushing policies at home that hurt working people while prioritizing massive war spending. And the world is responding with concern, resistance, and in some cases outright rejection of U.S. actions. Even if everything stopped today, the damage is already done. But it’s not stopping. And the gap between what Trump says and what’s actually happening keeps getting wider.
Stay with us. We’ll keep breaking it all down. Thanks for subscribing.
