Hi all, Ben here. Let me give you the latest updates quickly before we get into the details.
Here are the top stories we’re tracking:
Iran has rejected any temporary ceasefire and sent back a 10-point counter-proposal with sweeping demands, calling Trump’s 15-point framework a non-starter
Axios’ Barak Ravid floated a “45-day ceasefire” story last night, right before markets opened, only to quietly walk it back this morning
Trump held what was supposed to be an Easter egg hunt at the White House and turned it into a deranged press conference about bombs, oil, and a mystery group he says stole his guns
Iran’s South Pars petrochemical facility, responsible for roughly 85% of Iran’s petrochemical exports, was struck again by U.S.-Israeli forces
Sharif University of Technology, Iran’s top engineering school (often called “Iran’s MIT”), was hit in U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, with labs, buildings, a mosque, and a nearby data center damaged
Israel killed IRGC intelligence chief Brigadier General Majid Khademi and Yazdan Mir, the head of Quds Force Unit 840, in overnight targeted strikes
Israel is now awaiting U.S. authorization to strike Iran’s energy facilities, with both countries reportedly having a coordinated target list designed to make Iran’s recovery, in their words, “long and painful”
Trump, at his afternoon press conference, said: “[Iran] could be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night.”
Trump said his administration will pursue and potentially jail the reporter who revealed that a second U.S. F-15E pilot was missing unless they disclose their source, accusing them of “leaking”
Let’s get into it.
On Sunday, Trump and his team were doing what they always do: shopping a feel-good story around to friendly reporters right before the markets open Sunday night. It again landed with the usual suspect, Barak Ravid at Axios, who published a piece claiming the U.S., Iran, and regional mediators were deep in talks over a potential 45-day ceasefire. Markets reacted accordingly. As I wrote on social media in response to the story last night, “Please stop.” The laundering of these false claims from U.S. and Israeli officials every Sunday night has been like clockwork. We’re at a point you can know it’s Sunday not by looking at the calendar, but by seeing if Axios posted a story claiming a deal is imminent.
Then morning came, and surprise! The claims of an imminent end to hostilities again was proven to be complete BS.
Iran announced it had sent a 10-point counter-proposal through Pakistan, and it had nothing to do with a temporary ceasefire. Iran’s position is clear, and frankly it’s been clear for weeks: no ceasefire, no temporary pause, no negotiating within Trump’s 15-point framework. What Iran wants is a permanent resolution — and the terms are sweeping. A full end to regional fighting, which means security guarantees not just for Iran but for the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iranian-backed Shia groups in Iraq. Full sanctions relief. Reconstruction support. Control of the Strait of Hormuz with a permanent toll system. And Iran will not give up its ballistic missiles, Shahid drones, or major weapons systems. Those are its non-negotiables.
A U.S. official described Iran’s response as “maximalist” and expressed doubt it opens any path to real diplomacy. Meanwhile, Ravid was already updating his story: the “45-day ceasefire” was now just “one of many ideas being discussed,” the president hadn’t signed off on anything, and Operation Epic Fury continues. It’s clear Iran believes it has a stronger negotiating position now than prior to the war, when it was willing to come to an agreement with the United States.
Now. About that Easter egg hunt.
Trump was outside the White House this morning for what was billed as a family-friendly Easter celebration. Easter Bunny, kids, pastel decorations, and so on. And Trump, being Trump, immediately turned it into a press conference. With the Easter music still playing in the background, he continued to ramp up his war rhetoric.
A reporter asked how bombing Iran helps the Iranian people. Trump’s answer: the Iranian people love it when they hear bombs. They want to be free, he said, and bombing is how they know freedom is coming. When the bombs stop, that’s when Iranians are most unhappy. He said this twice, with full confidence, while a children’s Easter event was happening around him. The man looked a reporter in the eye and said that the most miserable moment in an Iranian’s life is when the explosions stop. 25th Amendment, anyone?
When asked whether he’d continue the war if Iran doesn’t meet his demands, he said, “You’ll have to watch. It’s an easy question. The answer is yes, but you’ll have to watch.”
A reporter then pointed out the obvious contradiction: Trump has repeatedly claimed Iran has been “obliterated,” so why are we still fighting? Trump’s answer was that Iran can’t really fight back, they had a “lucky shot” with one airplane, they’ve got a few missiles and drones left but essentially nothing. This, as we watch Iranian ballistic missiles hitting U.S. military assets across the region on a near-daily basis. The helicopters, he acknowledged, have “a lot of bullet holes.” But that’s just luck. They’re obliterated.
Then came the guns story. Trump said he sent weapons to a group of people who were supposed to fight back against the Iranian regime, but they kept the guns instead of using them. He’s angry about it. They’ll “pay a big price.” Who are these people? He didn’t say. Many suspect he may be referring to Kurdish forces who were armed ahead of the war and then didn’t move when fighting began. But Trump didn’t say. He also said, unprompted, that if it were up to him, he’d keep Iran’s oil.
At one point, with Melania standing directly beside him, he scanned the crowd and said he thought the First Lady was there “someplace.” She was right next to him. I repeat: 25th Amendment, anyone?!!!!
And wrapping it all up, with what I can only assume was Marco Rubio somewhere nearby in an Easter Bunny costume, Trump told the assembled children and reporters that he built the greatest military in the world during his first term and didn’t realize how much he’d be using it in his second.
Trump then held his press conference in the White House, which was equally deranged. While speaking to press, he said regarding Iran, “The entire country could be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night.”
Trump also threatened the press. He said his administration will contact the person who published the article "leaking" that the second US F-15E pilot was missing on Friday, warning the author of this article will "go to jail" if they do not release the name of the person who leaked this information.
While all this was unfolding at the White House, the war itself escalated significantly. The South Pars petrochemical complex in Assaluyeh was struck again — multiple explosions, major damage to what is Iran’s largest petrochemical facility. The last time South Pars was hit, Iran retaliated by striking a Qatari facility in the northern oil fields, given that Qatar and Iran share that same gas formation. We’ll be watching closely for what comes next there.
And Sharif University of Technology, Iran’s premier engineering institution, the school that produces the country’s top scientists, aerospace engineers, and tech minds, was hit in strikes this morning. Labs destroyed. Buildings damaged. A mosque hit. A data center possibly taken out. Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi responded by invoking a saying attributed to the Prophet Muhammad about Iranians’ relentless pursuit of knowledge, and warned that the aggressors “will see our might.”
Israel also confirmed the killing of IRGC intelligence chief Brigadier General Majid Khademi and Yazdan Mir, the commander of the Quds Force’s covert Unit 840. And Israel is now publicly waiting on a green light from Washington to begin striking Iran’s energy infrastructure across the board, a coordinated campaign, per both the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times, explicitly designed to cripple Iran’s economy and ensure any recovery is prolonged and severe.
That is where we are on this Monday. We’ll keep you posted every step of the way. Thanks for reading and subscribing. Be sure to like, restack, and spread the word.
