It’s Monday, October 5. Hope you had a chance to recharge over the weekend. Now let’s get back into the news.
Here are the top stories we’re tracking:
Iran attacks more tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
The global oil supply crunch deepens
The war continues to spread across Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and the Black Sea
U.S. bombers flee a UK base over a suspected Iran-backed plot
Bessent walks back his “I am the house” brag
The suspected plague death at a Russian lab
FBI trained agents to flag Epstein documents naming Trump — and made at least 9 training videos explaining what to do
Former Prince Andrew challenges Epstein-linked search warrants
Lutnick-Epstein whistleblower Simon Andriesz mysteriously dies by “suicide”
Trump’s political standing continues to collapse
Ken Paxton gets caught on tape…again
A White House press shop shakeup
Dennis Hastert, former GOP Speaker of the House and serial child molester, dies
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Iran Hits More Tankers
Donald Trump has gone quiet as tanker after tanker got hit in the Strait of Hormuz, which he has falsely claimed the U.S. fully controls. The strikes we’ve been reporting every day are now confirmed by UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), which issued 3 warnings covering October 3 and 4, all in the narrowest part of the Strait. On the 3rd, a crude tanker was struck above the waterline by an unknown projectile. On the 4th, an inbound LPG tanker was struck and a crude tanker was hit by multiple projectiles. We’re also learning a tanker turned around this morning after receiving a warning.
The Wall Street Journal now reports that after several quiet days late last month, UKMTO has logged 7 strikes on vessels around the Strait since September 28. A U.S. official noted that Iran’s targeting has improved. Politico’s Gregg Carlstrom noted that oil flow data is still fuzzy, but the uptick in attacks is clear. By our count, at least 12 tankers have been hit in the southern corridor over the past 7 days.
The WSJ headline says oil was “pouring out of Hormuz” again, but it never was. The regime kept claiming more oil was moving than actually was, and Americans can see the truth every time they fill up on gas or diesel.
Let me run off a few fast facts here…
Flows are slowing: Analysts estimate a possible 2-3 million barrel/day drop, with Brent hovering around $100 as shipping, security, and insurance costs keep any recovery fragile
Record tanker rates: Poten & Partners says very large crude carrier (VLCC) rates have hit $1.3 million a day, which is 43 times January’s level of around $30,000. That adds around $33/barrel. Poten is putting the physical market price for Brent near $120 and blames the wars in the Middle East and Europe, plus the threats in Hormuz, the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, and the Black Sea, for spiking insurance and risk premiums
SPR Draining: The Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell another 767K barrels last week to 283 million, the lowest since 1982, marking 28 straight weekly declines and nearly 133 million barrels down from its high.
“Scarily thin”: Aramco CEO Amin Nasser told an energy conference in London that the world’s supply cushion is dangerously low, that around 3 million barrels of supply have been lost since the Iran War began, and that rebuilding inventories could take up to 2 years. That comes days after the G7 agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of oil and diesel reserves.
So basically, even if every barrel were flowing like it was pre-war, the risk premium alone makes it far more expensive by the time it reaches the refinery, and then your gas tank…
The War Keeps Spreading
The Bab al-Mandeb is now a battlefield. Last month, the Houthis launched a rapid offensive and captured around 93 miles of Red Sea coastline and areas around the strait. The Saudi-backed Yemeni government launched an offensive Sunday to retake that terrority, and today government forces say they’ve reclaimed the Dhubab district and key positions near the strait and launched a “strategic offensive” on the capital Sanaa. The Saudi-backed coalition says 100 fighter jets are supporting the operation. The Houthis, on the other hand, have denied the government made any gains.
The Houthis answered with a ballistic missile strike on an Aramco refinery in Jeddah. Smoke could be seen rising over the city in images reviewed by MeidasTouch.
In the Black Sea, the Turkish commercial vessel Royad Mammadov sank following a drone strike roughly 30 nautical miles south of Sfântu Gheorghe, inside the exclusive economic zone of Romania (a NATO member). Romanian authorities say 11 crew were rescued and 2 killed. Officials have not said who launched the drone, though many suspect Russia. Zelenskyy has called out the attack.
U.S. Bombers Flee UK Base
Asked why American bombers left RAF Fairford in England, Marco Rubio said rotations and asset movements aren’t unusual… But… Here’s what he left out.
The New York Times, citing 2 U.S. officials, reported the decision came after military commanders received new warnings about an alleged Iran-backed plot to target the base. Around a dozen B-1 bombers were pulled out over the weekend. The base has been used by the U.S. for long-range bombing missions in the Iran War.
The pullback goes beyond that. The USS George H.W. Bush has left the Arabian Sea for Phuket, Thailand, leaving the USS George Washington as the only carrier there. The USS Theodore Roosevelt strike group and an amphibious assault group won’t arrive until mid-November (after the midterms).
Bessent’s Bluff Gets Called, So He Walks It Back
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is now singing a different tune. He told The Axios Show that he “can’t control the bond market” and the best he can do is get people to “slow down and think.” This comes just weeks after he bragged “I am the house” and said he could exert control over the markets to stabilize them. Now he’s saying he simply meant he has “superior information,” not that he’s able to do anything special. As we’ve said, he may indeed be “the house.” But unfortunately for him, and us, he’s the house of a Trump casino — the only casino, apparently, where the house loses.
Suspected Plague Death in Siberia
A 28-year-old worker at the Anti-Plague Research Institute in Shelekhov died on October 2. People believe she died of the incredibly lethal and dangerous pneumonic plague. She reportedly broke a test tube of live bacteria while collecting samples. Nearly 200 contacts have since been placed under observation, the district hospital was quarantined, public events in Irkutsk were canceled, and a criminal investigation was opened into possible safety violations. Other nearby hospitals have since been quarantined, per reports.
Moscow is not revealing many details and they are trying to make it all go away. Rospotrebnadzor says tests of her biological material found no microorganisms linked to her work and no accidents involving pathogens were detected at the institute. An expert commission concluded the cause of death was “pneumonia of unknown aetiology.” Meanwhile, more than 60 of her colleagues remain isolated inside the building and several hospitals remain closed without explanations. Buryatia head Alexei Tsydenov initially said she died of plague before adding the word “maybe.”
Exclusive: Proof FBI Trained Agents to Flag Epstein Files Naming Trump
Allison Gill of MSW Media obtained descriptions of 9 FBI training videos used during the March 2025 review of the Epstein Files, when more than a thousand agents were brought in to comb through files taken from SDNY. She broke the news on her show The Breakdown on the MeidasTouch Network.
Two of those videos instruct agents to flag docs containing certain names, including Trump’s, for supervisory review. Gill’s FOIA fight began in July 2025, led to a lawsuit that August, and saw the FBI admit in July 2026 to 75 minutes of video it refuses to release. DOJ then sought a 90-day delay that would’ve pushed past the midterms. The judge refused that, and set a September 25 deadline. DOJ’s brief, filed late Friday, also reveals it relied on a search from over a year ago in someone else’s case to answer her request. DOJ still refuses to release the videos.
That’s not the only Epstein news this morning. Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor (formerly Prince Andrew) is seeking a judicial review of warrants Thames Valley Police obtained ahead of his February 18 arrest on suspicion of misconduct in public affairs following the Epstein Files revelations. A private hearing is set for Thursday afternoon.
Lutnick-Epstein Whistleblower Has Died
And Simon Andriesz, the former BGC Group managing director who flagged Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s links to Jeffrey Epstein, including a 2018 email chain about a startup they were both involved in, has died by “suicide.” Andriesz told the BBC’s File on 4 about his findings, reported evidence to the FBI in 2020 and 2021, and shared it with the House Oversight Committee, which later questioned Lutnick behind closed doors.
Donald “Hoover” Trump
CNN’s Harry Enten notes that Trump is likely the least popular Republican president at this point in a term since Herbert Hoover, with his net approval in Kansas, yes KANSAS, at -15, compared to +5 in 2018. The Kansas Senate race is currently tied in the polls. And then there’s this… Gallup’s Q3 party ID survey shows identification with Democrats at 50% and Republicans at just 39%, the largest Democratic margin since early 2009 and a 15-point swing from R+4 in late 2024.
The map is so bad that Trump is spending today in Nebraska to support Sen. Pete Ricketts in his race against independent challenger Dan Osborn.
And some other news: Barack Obama has announced he will hold an event with Dr. Abdul El-Sayed in the race for U.S. Senate in Detroit on October 24.
One more thing on the midterms: today is the last day to register to vote in several states, including Texas, Georgia, Florida, and Kentucky. Check your registration at vote.org or your preferred site today and send it to everyone you know in those states.
Paxton Caught on Tape… Again
We now have the second leaked recording of Texas U.S. Senate nominee Ken Paxton in a week. Last week, we heard audio of Ken Paxton complaining that Trump has been a drag on his candidacy and has dropped the numbers of all Republicans. Now, Politico has a new recording of Paxton venting that he has “never been in a race” where he felt less control over his campaign because it’s all being controlled by forces in DC. So Trump’s dragging him down and Trump’s people are running his campaign. Another reminder Texans: today is your registration deadline.
White House Press Shuffle
In the least surprising news ever, Karoline Leavitt is joining Fox as a contributor November 1. Meanwhile, Beni Rae Harmony has reportedly been named assistant press secretary and White House spokesperson. We found a photo of her from 2021 holding a scoped rifle in a “F**k Joe Biden” shirt. Lovely people.
Serial Child Molester and Former Top Republican Dennis Hastert Is Dead
Hastert, the longest-serving Republican Speaker, who admitted in federal court to sexually abusing boys he coached as a high school wrestling coach, was called a “serial child molester” by a federal judge, and was a registered sex offender, has died at 84.
Here’s a quick overview on how some of the top networks covered his death:
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"The pullback goes beyond that. The USS George H.W. Bush has left the Arabian Sea for Phuket, Thailand ..."
Yeah, they said "Phuket, let's get out of here ..."
Maybe the war over oil will lead to no oil for war.