The Blue Wave Awakens

Forty-seven lawmakers are quitting, chaos is spreading, Republicans are exposed, and Democrats are quietly preparing to turn this mass exit into a historic political advantage in 2026.

Guest article by Michael Cohen. Remember to follow him on Substack for more by clicking here. Michael is also racing to 500K followers on YouTube! Subscribe today for free here.

It is Sunday, and you and I are both doing what most Americans are doing: trying to make sense of another week under an administration staffed with people who treat governing like an improv exercise they never rehearsed for. The weeks keep flying by, but the consequences don’t. They stack up, they linger, and they remind us, day after grinding day, that we’re living through a level of incompetence so profound it’s practically a governing philosophy. And yet, every now and then, Washington provides a reminder that even dysfunction has limits. This week, that reminder came courtesy of 47 members of Congress deciding they’ve had enough.

You don’t see a stampede like this unless the people inside the building know it’s not structurally sound. The polls tell the story no one in power wants to admit. Trump’s approval rating has crashed to second-term lows. Gallup has him at 36% approval and 60% disapproval. Reuters/Ipsos clocks him at 38%. Even Fox News, normally the political equivalent of a drunken stupor, can’t push him above 41%. Every aggregator shows the same picture: underwater and sinking. And on the economy, the story is brutal. Fox News’ own polling shows 61% disapprove of his handling of it. Reuters/Ipsos says only 26% approve of how he’s managing the cost of living. AP-NORC puts his economic approval at 33%. Voters aren’t whispering their frustration; they’re shouting it.

And they have every reason to. Prices are soaring because of tariffs that were sold as painless. ICE raids are tearing through communities like political theater gone wrong. SNAP benefits are being slashed while inflation squeezes families from every direction. The shutdown in November only reinforced the perception that no one is at the wheel. Nearly 70% of Americans say they’ve had enough. When voters get to that point, the politicians who rely on those voters start making decisions that read like escape routes.

What’s remarkable about this mass exit is that it actually benefits Democrats more than it harms them. On their side, the retirements—Nancy Pelosi, Jerry Nadler, Jan Schakowsky, Bonnie Watson Coleman, Danny Davis, Lloyd Doggett, Dwight Evans—are coming from solidly blue districts. These departures don’t weaken the party; they renew it. These are safe seats that will stay blue. Even Jared Golden and Jesús “Chuy” García’s departures, while notable, don’t spell doom. Democrats have the ability to hold those districts with a disciplined recruitment effort and a decent candidate.

Across the aisle, the picture is more chaotic. Don Bacon stepping down. Michael McCaul leaving. Jodey Arrington, Morgan Luttrell, Troy Nehls calling it quits. These aren’t fringe members or backbenchers. They represent districts that could become competitive with the right Democratic challenger, especially when independents and suburban voters are drifting away from the GOP in large numbers. And then there’s the noisy departure of Marjorie Taylor Greene, stepping down after clashing with the administration. Her district will stay Republican, but the political drama surrounding her exit says something bigger: the MAGA label no longer guarantees longevity. Loyalty to this administration is no longer a shield; it’s a liability.

Then you have the career climbers: twenty-four House members running for higher office. Elise Stefanik wants to be governor of New York. Nancy Mace is going for South Carolina. Byron Donalds wants Florida. Andy Biggs, Dusty Johnson, David Schweikert, John Rose, John James—heading out in search of statewide power. In another era, this would be chalked up to ambition. Right now? It looks a lot like strategic distancing. Politicians don’t abandon comfortable House seats when they believe their party is strong. They do it when they see the ground shifting under their feet.

The Senate isn’t immune either. Mitch McConnell, arguably the most consequential Republican leader of the modern era, is retiring. Joni Ernst and Thom Tillis are leaving too. These aren’t minor exits; they reshape the political map. On the Democratic side, departures from Dick Durbin, Gary Peters, Tina Smith, and Jeanne Shaheen matter, but those seats are winnable. They don’t create a structural disadvantage.

All of this is happening against a backdrop of November’s special elections, which weren’t just Democratic wins; they were warnings. Democrats overperformed in places that traditionally lean conservative. These weren’t isolated blips. They were the result of voters pointing fingers at the cost of living, SNAP cuts, ICE raids, tariffs that made essentials more expensive, and a government shutdown that made dysfunction unavoidable. The message was clear: this administration isn’t delivering stability, prosperity, or even basic competence.

Which brings us to 2026. Democrats are walking into a political landscape filled with opportunity: open seats, damaged incumbents, vulnerable districts, and voters who have finally hit their breaking point. The people inside the system—the lawmakers, the staffers, the strategists—are reading the same tea leaves the rest of us are. They’re just reacting faster because their careers depend on it.

While each week under this administration feels like its own small crisis, politically, the momentum is shifting. The Great Congressional Exodus of 2025 is not routine turnover. It’s the first structural crack in an already fragile foundation. And if Democrats recognize the moment for what it is and meet it with discipline and clarity, the 2026 midterms won’t simply be a check on power.

They’ll be the beginning of restoration.

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