The Hoax of Christmas Present

Polling and focus group data show voters across parties feel crushed by rising costs, even as Trump dismisses affordability concerns as a “hoax” that contradicts Americans’ lived reality.

Guest article by Margie Omero, a principal at the Democratic polling firm GBAO

President Trump is known for having a pretty deceptive relationship with the truth. He calls things hoaxes that are true, and calls things true that are hoaxes. His latest claim is affordability is a “hoax” – but polls show he couldn’t be more wrong.

It doesn’t matter how you ask it – voters are deeply, acutely worried about costs. It’s by far the top issue voters say Washington should work on. Almost half – even a plurality of Trump voters – say the cost of living is “the worst I can remember it ever being.” And digging deeper, voters feel squeezed across the board; on housing, utility prices, food, and health care, over 70% say the cost of each is going up. Economic indicators confirm voters’ perceptions; consumer confidence is down, the lowest level since April, while inflation continues to climb.

Yet Trump’s declaration America is in a “golden age,” where people are “doing better than you’ve ever done” – is completely at odds with voters’ reality. Two-thirds of Americans feel the country is “on the wrong track,” including three in ten (29%) Republicans. Gallup found just 21% think the economy is going well.

Come the holidays, these struggles seem likely to get even worse. Navigator Research shows nearly half of Americans (47%) plan to cut back for the holidays. And Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index has dropped to a 17-month low, with sharply lower holiday spending than predicted a few short months ago.

Focus groups bring to light this widespread national sourness. In groups I’ve conducted over the last few months for AARP, Navigator, and others, people have vivid examples of how they’re trying to save money, like using buy-now-pay-later apps to afford dog food, considering moving to another state to better afford utility bills, renting out part of their house through AirBnB, selling off many of their possessions, buying and selling Pokemon cards, or even moving in with an ex-boyfriend.

This economic pessimism mirrors Trump’s own downturn. His Trump’s ratings on the economy have fallen dramatically since he took office, across polling outlets. Clear majorities – of both Democrats and Republicans – say “inflation and the cost of living” should be Washington’s top priority – the top in a long list of 22 items (respondents could pick five). Yet when given the same list, and asked which were Trump’s and Congressional Republicans’ top five priorities, inflation ranked 8^th.

When Trump does have policies allegedly aimed at addressing the economy and inflation, Americans say they are more worried than not. Majorities are concerned about tariffs, or about cuts to Medicaid and SNAP, and more oppose repealing Obamacare than support it.

With this backdrop, it’s no wonder Trump’s own voters are turning on him. Navigator Research shows a steady, sizable share of Trump voters (about 15% of them) say they “regret” their vote, with even more saying they are “disappointed” in him. There are enough Trump regretters to impact the 2026 midterms, either by voting Democratic or staying home altogether. We’ve already seen this in action this year in Democratic overperformance in races across the country.

By shouting things like “our prices are coming down tremendously,” Trump is telling voters to “reject the evidence of their eyes and ears.” But this is 2025, not 1984, and voters aren’t buying it. There’s only one real “con job” right now, and it’s not Americans’ worries about affordability.

By: Margie Omero, Principal at the Democratic polling firm GBAO, has nearly 30 years studying public opinion. Her clients have included Senator Ruben Gallego (AZ), Governors Tony Evers (WI) and Laura Kelly (KS), and organizations like AARP, Navigator Research, the New York Times Opinion Page, and American Bridge’s Working Class Project.