The Midterm War for Our Republic

Trump’s grip isn’t just in Washington; it’s rooted in 27 states where approval thrives, redistricting looms, and the 2026 midterms may be democracy’s final line of defense.

Guest article by Michael Cohen. Follow him on Substack for more by clicking here.

You’d think by now the act would have worn thin on everyone’s patience. That after years of lies, lawsuits, convictions, international embarrassment, and a federal government run like a bad vanity project for one man’s ego, people would have had enough. But no. Here we are in 2025, waking up every day to a world on fire; international conflicts burning out of control, Washington sliding further into federalized authoritarianism, tariffs squeezing small businesses until they squeal, and gerrymandering so shameless you’d think state legislatures were drawing maps while blindfolded with crayons—and President Trump’s popularity is still holding strong in over half the states in this country. Let me repeat this for those not paying close attention… President Trump’s popularity is still holding strong in over half the states in this country.

That’s not a typo. It’s not spin. It’s a cold, hard fact.

Morning Consult’s latest polling says it all: Trump has a net-positive approval rating in 27 states. In Wyoming, 66% of voters think he’s doing a good job. In Texas—ground zero for aggressive GOP redistricting—53% approve. And that’s despite the economic wreckage of his tariff obsession and the international humiliation his foreign policy blunders have racked up.

Now look, nationally, he’s underwater. RealClearPolitics has him at -5.4. The New York Times pegs it at -8. Gallup ranks his early-term numbers lower than any modern president: Obama, both Bushes, Clinton, Reagan, all of them. But here’s the reality: elections in America aren’t decided by national averages. They’re decided state by state. And in those 27 states, Trump has the wind at his back.

This matters for two reasons. First, state legislatures in those Trump-friendly territories aren’t just cheerleading from the sidelines; they’re actively shaping the battlefield. Take Texas. They’re pushing to redraw congressional maps to lock in more Republican seats. And here’s where it gets ugly. As I said in my Substack article yesterday, the redistricting war that’s coming benefits Republicans far more than Democrats. They’ve mastered the art of slicing and dicing districts to cement power. If Texas pulls the trigger, it won’t just tilt the next election; it will tilt the playing field for a decade, handing control of the House to Republicans who’ve pledged absolute fealty to Trump.

Blue states like California will threaten to respond in kind, but let’s be honest: this is a game Republicans play better and dirtier. And the end result is simple: the more they gerrymander, the harder it becomes for Democrats—or anyone outside the MAGA cult—to win.

Second, Trump’s approval in those states acts like political Kevlar. Every indictment, every scandal, every public disgrace—his voters just brush it off. In fact, the worse his press, the more they cling to him. He’s turned persecution into performance art, spinning every consequence of his own misdeeds into proof of his martyrdom. And in over half the country, that narrative works.

So when people ask me—whether on my Mea Culpa Podcast, in my Substack comments, or while doing LIVES—“Michael, what can I do?” my answer is always the same.

First, know the facts. If you’re going to fight, you can’t be sloppy with your ammunition. Half-truths and hearsay won’t cut it. We see too much of that here and on other platforms as well. Trump’s supporters already live in a reality distortion bubble, fed a steady diet of Fox News propaganda, fringe “news” blogs, and conspiracy podcasts that make Alex Jones look like Walter Cronkite. And if you walk into that without real data, real facts, you’re going to get shredded.

Second, speak up. Not to your Twitter, Substack, Instagram, BlueSky, or Threads followers. They already agree with you. Not to your curated group chats. I’m talking about your neighbor, your cousin, the parent in the pickup line at school with the MAGA hat. Ask them the hard questions: Why do you believe him? Isn’t that simply a lie? Where are you getting your information? How do you explain this fact? And when they throw out a lie, push back. Gently, firmly, repeatedly.

Third, accept that this isn’t a one-and-done conversation. You’re not going to “win” someone over in a single coffee shop chat. But you can plant seeds. And seeds grow. I’ve seen it happen.

Because here’s the ugly truth: without convincing enough people in these Trump-approval states to see through the con, the coming redistricting war will lock us into a system where Trumpism isn’t just a movement; it’s the law of the land. And if we don’t flip enough seats in the 2026 midterms, we lose our only remaining defense: our tripartite system of government.

The 2026 midterms aren’t just “another election.” They are the firewall—the only real chance we have to stop the collapse of our checks and balances. Without winning back enough seats to restore balance, the constitutional safeguards that keep this democratic republic alive vanish. You think it’s bad now? Imagine Trump truly unshackled, with a House, Senate, and state legislatures all fully in his pocket, rewriting the rules to guarantee permanent one-party rule. That’s not democracy; that’s autocracy with better branding.

So here’s your marching order: don’t just talk to the choir; go to the pews where the congregation still worships at the altar of Trump. Have the conversations no one else wants to have. Challenge the narrative. Force people to confront reality. And don’t do it once; do it relentlessly, between now and November 2026.

Because this isn’t about saving a party. This is about saving the very architecture of American democracy. If we lose that, there’s no rebuilding it in our lifetime. The house is already smoldering. The alarms are blaring. And if you’re still sitting back waiting for someone else to grab the hose, then congratulations—you’ve handed Trump the matchbook.

So, stand up. Speak out. Fight smart. The future of our republic isn’t going to be decided in Washington; it’s going to be decided in those 27 states where Donald Trump still plays king. And unless we flip enough of them in the next 14 months, the system our founders built—three branches, coequal power, checks and balances—will be nothing more than a chapter in a history book our children will be forbidden to read.

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