Thursday Afternoon News Updates: Trump Boxed In and the World Knows It — 6/4/26
Here's your midday update.
Hi all, Ben here. It’s Thursday, June 4th. There’s a lot happening today, and as usual, I want to make sure you’re up to speed on all of it. Thanks to all of you for the kind words about these recaps and the format. Your insight is what has shaped these midday recaps.
Here are the top stories we’re tracking today:
Iran’s Supreme Leader declares the U.S.-Israeli military campaign a defeat, warns of “hybrid war” aimed at dividing Iranian society
Trump is boxed in on Iran with no clear strategy, as Lebanon ceasefire collapses within hours
Oil inventories hitting “tank bottom” with industry warning of catastrophic price spikes by mid-to-late June
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent both get torched in congressional hearings
Trump’s bizarre ballroom ambassador shows up at Putin’s economic forum in St. Petersburg
Polls continue to crater for Trump in Ohio and Iowa as DCCC data reveals massive openings in rural America
Judge Luttig delivers a major rebuke to the Trump presidency, exclusively on MeidasTouch
Rep. Jamie Raskin introduces the BLANCHE Act to block Trump’s corrupt IRS immunity deal
Before I go any further, if you haven’t yet joined as a paid subscriber, consider doing so now by clicking here to support our work. This is how we grow. And if you’re already a Meidas+ paid Substack subscriber, thank you for supporting pro-democracy media. We’re making this update free for everyone to read.
Iran Won’t Budge, Lebanon Burns, and the Ayatollah Is Calling Trump’s Bluff
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei addressed the Iranian people Thursday, and the message wasn’t directed inward, but rather it was directed squarely at Donald Trump. Khamenei declared that the U.S.-Israeli “system of domination” has suffered a historic military defeat and is now resorting to psychological warfare, propaganda, and attempts to sow division within Iranian society. He claimed the U.S. and Israel were using tools such as doubt, despair, fear, suspicion, and discord. He told Iranians not to fall for it. And then his office posted an AI-generated propaganda image showing Iran ascending as a great power, with the symbols of America, Israel, and imperial Rome toppled at its feet.
Iran’s envoy Dr. Mohammad Fathali called the entire U.S. military campaign a “strategic assessment failure.” He said they miscalculated Iranian society, Iranian leadership, Iranian military capability — all of it. And now Trump is frozen in this endless negotiation “loop.”
Allies and critics alike are warning that Trump has gotten himself completely boxed in. The AP is reporting that Iranian officials believe Trump is reluctant to restart bombing after depleting key weapons systems, so they have zero reason to yield to new U.S. demands. Trump wanted a bilateral deal, just the U.S. and Iran, without Lebanon in the picture. Iran said from the very beginning, in March, that a ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon, was their precondition for any deal. We talked about this in March. Nothing has changed on Iran’s end.
And then Trump announced a ceasefire in Lebanon. Within hours, Israeli strikes resumed. At least nine people were killed. A journalist reporting live from the Nabatieh area said there was no ceasefire, rather just a full Israeli war continuing. Israel’s National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir called a Lebanon ceasefire “a fantasy,” said Hezbollah has grown stronger throughout this conflict, and argued that Netanyahu should have told Trump directly: we love you, but the answer is no.
Meanwhile, the Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. went on CNN and described Trump and Netanyahu as “lovers” who had a little “lovers’ spat.” Lovers.
Hezbollah’s leader Naim Qassem issued his own warning, saying as long as villages are being bombed and people are being killed, northern Israel will not be safe. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said the region will never be stable until Israel withdraws from occupied areas in Lebanon.
Trump is not negotiating from a position of strength here. He’s negotiating from a position of exhaustion. And everyone can see it.
“Tank Bottom”
While Trump remains frozen on Iran strategy, the consequences of that frozen posture are about to hit every American at the gas pump even more — and potentially much worse than that.
Politico has a devastating report out today on what the oil industry is privately warning the Trump administration: we are approaching “tank bottom.” Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz when the U.S. and Israel launched strikes three months ago, the single biggest disruption to crude oil flows in history. U.S. crude stocks have fallen eight consecutive weeks. We’re now 3% below the five-year average. Gasoline stocks are 5% below average. Total U.S. commercial petroleum inventories are down 52 million barrels since the war began.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve was tapped for 8 million barrels last week alone, bringing it near its July 2023 low. Globally, inventories have been falling by roughly 5.8 million barrels per day.
Exxon’s Senior VP Neil Chapman warned that Brent crude could hit $150-$160 a barrel. Gas is already at $4.26 a gallon nationally, $1.28 higher than before the war began. One industry executive told Politico: “We’re at dangerously low levels already. We have shared those concerns at the highest levels of government about what’s coming in mid-to-late June... You’re hitting tank bottom.” Another executive warned that even after the Strait reopens, and there’s no timeline on that, July 4th gasoline prices will still be brutal.
RBC Capital Markets’ Helima Croft called the drained storage tanks “an iceberg under the water” and warned of potential industrial shortages by September or October. S&P Global’s Jim Burkhard said he has never seen inventory numbers fall so much so quickly.
The White House’s response? They denied receiving private industry warnings. Spokesperson Taylor Rogers said Trump “anticipated short-term market disruptions.”
This is Trump’s entire playbook, by the way. Stay frozen. Do nothing. When the catastrophic economic event arrives, and it’s already unfolding, find someone to blame. Biden. Democrats. The deep state. Whoever. He’s fine with America suffering as long as he personally isn’t held accountable. Then, he sits back and hopes someone bails him out. And then when something eventually improves, he takes credit for it. That’s the whole game.
Meanwhile, Trump is preparing a $700 million push to build new coal plants to keep up with the energy demands on AI. In 2026. While the global economy is screaming for stable energy supplies, while other countries are ramping up their clean energy production, Trump is throwing more money at coal.
Rollins and Bessent Get Grilled
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins had a rough day in front of the House Oversight Committee. Democrats came loaded.
Rep. Brown summed it up: “So this is what a golden age of agriculture looks like? Because if rising bankruptcies, falling farm income, and worsening financial conditions are a sign of a golden age, I’d hate to see what a downturn looks like.” Rep. Angie Craig went even further, cutting off Rollins’ attempt to blame Biden: “Joe Biden is no longer the president. Mr. Trump is. Your party controls Congress. You own these numbers at this point. I’m sick of hearing you blame an administration from a year and a half ago.”
And then there’s the screwworm crisis. A flesh-eating parasitic screwworm was detected in a Texas calf, the first case on U.S. soil since the 1960s, when it was eradicated. The crisis follows the Trump administration’s elimination of USAID foreign aid funding in 2025, which wiped out the monitoring programs that kept screwworm contained south of the border. Rollins had claimed in November 2025 that screwworm was “under control south of the border” and that beef prices would fall by spring 2026. A pro-Trump farming account is now warning in all caps about flesh-eating maggots wiping out the U.S. cattle supply and demanding a national emergency declaration. The people who voted for these cuts are now begging for the government intervention those same cuts destroyed.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s hearings weren’t any better. Rep. Boyle noted consumer sentiment is at an all-time low. Rep. Chu pointed out gas prices are up 50% since Trump’s war started. Rep. Sanchez called this “probably the most corrupt Treasury Department in our nation’s history,” at which point Bessent lost it and started shouting that the statement was slanderous. When asked directly whether the U.S. is currently at war, Bessent said “the conflict has been halted",” and when pressed, offered to call “the Secretary of War” to clarify.
Bessent also couldn’t name the ongoing litigation he cited as the reason he couldn’t discuss Trump’s IRS audit immunity deal. Convenient.
Trump, Ballrooms, and…Russia?
While the American economy is shedding jobs at the worst rate since 2020, with 97,006 job cuts in May, Trump sent his ballroom and fine arts commissioner, Rodney Mims Cook Jr., to St. Petersburg, Russia, for Putin’s international economic forum. You read that right. Trump’s ballroom guy is in Russia, showing off renderings of Trump’s new White House ballroom at what has been called Putin’s Davos.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he was “unaware” any U.S. delegation was attending. And now there are reports that Cook may be preparing to sign a memorandum of understanding on a tunnel under the Bering Strait between Russia and Alaska, which raises an entirely different question about what authority this man actually has to sign anything on behalf of the United States government.
Polls, Luttig, and the BLANCHE Act
The numbers continue to move. A new Fox News poll in Ohio shows Trump underwater by 15 points: 42% favorable, 57% unfavorable. That’s a more than 20-point swing from his +6 net positive in Ohio in November 2024. Democratic candidates are leading in both the Ohio Senate and governor’s races. In Iowa, Democratic candidate Rob Sand is up 50-41 over his Republican opponent. DCCC polling shows massive openings in rural America, with nearly 6 in 10 farmers reporting worsening finances, farm bankruptcies up 46%, and over 15,000 farms closed by end of 2025.
In an exclusive statement to MeidasTouch, conservative legal icon Judge J. Michael Luttig said the tectonic plates of American politics have shifted and the federal judiciary has brought about what he described as the “effective end of the Trump presidency.” Those are some big words from the renowned conservative judge.
And Rep. Jamie Raskin introduced the BLANCHE Act — the Block Lawless Agreements and Nullify Corrupt Handouts and Emoluments Act — to block Trump’s IRS audit immunity deal and prevent presidents from ever entering into sweetheart settlements with their own administration. It’s named after Acting AG Todd Blanche, of course, who championed the corrupt deal that handed Trump a $1.776 billion slush fund in exchange for his own immunity from IRS audit. The legislation would also require independent courts to review any presidential “super pardon” or immunity arrangement.
We’ll keep watching all of these stories and update you as things develop. Check back in later for Ron Filipkowski’s daily bulletin and more. And remember to add the MeidasTouch Podcast on audio platforms. It really helps us grow.
Thanks for liking, re-stacking, and subscribing! See you soon.
I see Brooke Rollins was blaming Biden again. This shit is getting old. I just wish this regime would take responsibility for their OWN actions. I guess that's asking too much 🙄
Only Trump could make Iran look reasonable