Hi all, Ben here. It’s Wednesday afternoon. Before we dive into the details, here’s a quick look at everything we’re tracking today:
Trump lashing out at NATO on Truth Social following a meeting with Secretary General Mark Rutte
Iran threatening to walk away from the ceasefire as Israel continues striking Lebanon
Iranian senior source outlines the actual terms of the “deal,” which Trump is now disputing
As of now, if it holds, the US and Iran will hold in-person peace talks Saturday in Islamabad; the delegation includes JD Vance, Jared Kushner, and Steve Witkoff
Q4 2025 GDP revised down again, now sitting at 0.5%
US troops were left exposed in a known target zone with virtually no drone defenses — and injured soldiers are calling out the Pentagon’s cover story
House Republicans block Democrats’ Iran War Powers Resolution, refusing to even allow a vote
Trump used foreign steel to build his $400 million White House ballroom
First, I want to thank all our paid subscribers. By now, you’ve probably noticed that at MeidasTouch we don’t care about access. We care about the facts. And we invest in real reporting to actually get you the truth. If you’re already a Meidas+ Substack member, thank you. If not, join us today and help fuel what we’re building.
This morning you probably received MeidasTouch correspondent Scott MacFarlane’s daily editorial note. If you haven’t read it yet, you can read it here. These are the same daily notes Scott used to circulate throughout CBS News—now you get inside access to his sharp, behind-the-scenes analysis on what’s coming next and why it matters.
Now let me tell you what’s actually happening with this Iran situation, because Donald Trump is out here lying about it while the data tells the truth.
Oil Hits $100 Again
Oil just crossed $100 a barrel again. Up over 11% in 24 hours. The market is not buying what Trump is selling. And for good reason. Because what Trump sold to the American people as some kind of historic diplomatic triumph is, when you actually read it, a comprehensive, humiliating, total capitulation to Iran’s ten-point negotiating framework.
Here's What Iran Actually Got
Let’s be very clear about what Iran got in this deal. Iran gets to continue enriching uranium. Iran gets control over passage through the Strait of Hormuz, with all vessels subject to IRGC approval and capped at fewer than 15 ships per day. All US sanctions on Iran must be lifted. Iran’s frozen assets must be unfrozen within a two-week window. The terms of the agreement must be codified in a United Nations Security Council resolution on Iran’s terms. And the United States cannot increase its troop presence in the region during the two-week ceasefire window.
That is not a deal. That is a surrender document.
And Iran is now using the Strait of Hormuz as a pressure valve to enforce every single one of those terms. Yesterday, not a single oil or gas tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz. The four vessels that did transit were carrying dry cargo. The few ships getting through right now are being rerouted along the Iranian coastline, within direct strike range, paying around $2 million per tanker. Iran mined the strait. This is the new reality of what Donald Trump agreed to.
Trump Is Lying About The Deal
Now Trump is going on Truth Social this morning screaming that the ten-point plan reported by CNN and The New York Times is a “fake hoax” cooked up by “evil losers.” The problem is that Trump himself, in his own post announcing the deal, said he was using Iran’s ten-point framework. He said it. It’s in his own words. Iran’s parliament speaker is out there right now citing the ten points chapter and verse. Iran’s president Pezeshkian is citing them. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Sharif cited them when he announced the deal. And let’s not forget that the White House apparently wrote that post for him, because when Sharif first published it, the post still showed the draft title “Pakistan’s PM Message on X.” That’s how desperate this administration was to get anyone to announce this capitulation on their behalf.
So Trump agreed to Iran’s framework, had Pakistan announce it for him, and is now publicly claiming the framework doesn’t exist, or is vastly different than what the public has been shown. This is lying at a level the likes of which we have never seen, as some wannabe tyrant might say.
And the best they can come up with to explain the "misunderstanding" is JD Vance suggesting that Ghalibaf, Iran's parliament speaker, one of the most powerful figures in the Iranian government, might just not be very good at English.
A quick aside from one of our sponsors who has enabled us to bring you this video report ad-free. If you’re not taking creatine right now—or you’re using a form your body doesn’t absorb well—switching to one designed to actually work in your body could be the upgrade you’ve been looking for. When we’re young, our bodies naturally produce and regenerate high levels of creatine. But as we hit our 40s and beyond, that production declines. The result? Less readily available energy for both muscles and brain. Here’s the key: you can’t just take creatine and call it a day. It needs to get into your cells and be activated to do its job. Electrolytes help with absorption, and magnesium supports activation. That’s it. That’s why Qualia Creatine+ was built to work with your body, not against it. It combines two clinically studied forms of creatine with electrolytes—everything chosen to support uptake and activation. No other creatine formula addresses the full process, from mixing to absorption to activation, as completely as Qualia Creatine+. We’re long past the days of creatine being just for gym bros. It’s essential for energy, metabolism, cognition, and healthy aging—not just lifting. Go to qualialife.com/MEIDAS15 for 50% off, and use code MEIDAS15 for an additional 15% off your order.
Now back to our report.
Iran Is Threatening to Walk
And while all of this is collapsing, Israel is continuing to bomb Lebanon. Yesterday alone, at least 258 people were killed in Beirut and its suburbs. Close to 2,000 casualties since the ceasefire was announced Tuesday. Iran is furious. President Pezeshkian says the Israeli strikes are a “flagrant violation” of the initial agreement and a sign of outright “deception.” His exact message: the continuation of these actions will render negotiations meaningless, and Iran will not abandon its Lebanese sisters and brothers.
Here is where things get precarious. Mahdi Mohammadi, a strategic adviser to Iran’s parliament speaker, posted this morning that “only a limited number of hours remain” — and that without a complete halt to Israeli operations in Lebanon, there will be no ceasefire, no negotiations, and the missiles are ready to fly. Iran’s parliament speaker Ghalibaf then posted directly, citing point one of the ten-point proposal: Lebanon and the entire Resistance Axis are an inseparable part of the ceasefire. He said ceasefire violations carry “explicit costs and STRONG responses.”
Trump posted his own threats last night, declaring that all US ships, aircraft, and military personnel will remain in place around Iran until the “REAL AGREEMENT” is fully complied with, and that if it isn’t, the “Shootin’ Starts, bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before.” He also announced that Iran agreed long ago to no nuclear weapons and an open Strait of Hormuz, which, again, directly contradicts his claim that the ten-point framework is a fake hoax, since those terms come straight from it. He closed by saying the US military is “Loading Up and Resting, looking forward, actually, to its next Conquest.”
Iran’s deputy foreign minister meanwhile told ITV that Iran’s delegation will only show up to Saturday’s peace talks in Islamabad if Israel stops attacking Lebanon. The coming hours, he said, will be critical.
Europe Is Furious. Trump’s Response Is to Attack NATO.
The EU, France, the UK, Spain, Italy, and Belgium are all calling publicly for Lebanon to be included in any ceasefire agreement. Emmanuel Macron said Israeli strikes “pose a direct threat to the sustainability of the ceasefire.” Spain’s Prime Minister Sanchez said Netanyahu’s “contempt for life and international law is intolerable.” Even Italy’s Meloni accused Israel of disrespecting the fragile truce.
And Netanyahu? He said Israel “still has objectives to complete” and will achieve them either through agreement or by renewing the fighting. So he’s not exactly rushing to comply.
Meanwhile, Trump’s response to all of this is to attack Europe. Der Spiegel is reporting that NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who just finished a visit to the White House where he could not have been more complimentary toward Trump, has been told to inform European capitals that Trump expects concrete military commitments to the Strait of Hormuz within days. And Trump’s reaction to Rutte’s visit, after Rutte spent days flattering him? Trump posted this morning: “None of these people, including our own, very disappointing, NATO, understood anything unless they have pressure placed upon them.” That is how Trump treats an ally who just spent considerable political capital kissing his ring. This is why you can never appease someone like Trump. As I’ve said in the past, you give him an inch, he takes your life.
Back at Home
On the domestic front, Q4 2025 GDP has been revised down for the final time. It started at 1.4%, dropped to 0.7%, and is now sitting at 0.5%. Fox News, to no one’s surprise, responded by immediately pivoting to Kevin Hassett’s prediction of 4 to 5% growth this year. Incredible. Maria Bartiromo called it “a little bit of a dip.” Regime propaganda is doing regime propaganda things.
Then there’s the story of Trump’s $400 million White House ballroom being built with foreign steel. Rep. Haridopolos responded this morning by saying: “Well, that’s news to me. Breaking news. I have not heard that. Obviously we want to use American.” Well, obviously not.
Soliders Are Calling Out Hegseth’s Lies
And the story that deserves far more attention than it’s getting: injured US soldiers are contradicting the Pentagon’s account of the drone attack that wounded them. CBS News spoke to soldiers who disputed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s description of the incident as a drone that “squirted through” the defenses of a fortified position. One of the injured soldiers told CBS directly: “Painting a picture that ‘one squeaked through’ is a falsehood. The unit was unprepared to provide any defense for itself. It was not a fortified position.” These are American troops calling out their own Defense Secretary for lying about what happened to them.
And House Republicans, naturally, just blocked the Democrats from even holding a vote on an Iran War Powers Resolution.
Thanks for reading. And if you aren’t subscribed yet, subscribe now! Like, re-stack, and spread the word. Ron Filipkowski will post his daily bulletin later in the day with a full breakdown of all the news.
