Today in Politics, Bulletin 107. 4/7/25

… Trump is planning to hold a military parade in DC on June 14, which is his birthday. Trump attempted to do one in 2018 but he angrily and begrudgingly canceled it after military leaders said it would cost $92 million and after DC officials complained that tanks and large vehicles would tear up the roadways, but this time he is determined to go ahead with it.

… Washington City Paper reported that the tentative plan is for the parade to go from the Pentagon in Arlington to the White House, which is 4 miles.

… It was a bizarre day on Wall Street as stocks tanked early as every overseas markets were way down with Japan the hardest hit, then they rallied sharply mid-morning after CNBC reported a false rumor that Trump was going to announce a 90-day pause on tariffs. Then they went back down when the WH said the story was “fake news,” then rallied again on a rumor that the EU was willing to zero-out all tariffs on the US. The markets then drifted back down for a 3rd consecutive negative day.

… The false rumor was started after Fox’s Brian Kilmeade asked WH Econ Advisor Kevin Hassett this morning if Trump would consider a 90 day tariff pause: “I think the president is gonna decide what the president is gonna decide - even if you think there will be some negative effect from the trade side, that's still a small share of GDP.”

… Somehow that got reported as Trump agreeing to pause tariffs.

… The White House social media account responded to the CNBC report: “Wrong. Fake News. Not only did Director Hassett not say this, POTUS has been clear - ‘it all has to change, but especially with CHINA!!!’”

… MAGA propagandist Rogan O’Handley, who goes by ‘DC Draino’ on X: “Markets are reversing and going up (for now). Trump just played economic chicken with the most powerful countries in the world and they all blinked. MAGA!”

… On his way back from Palm Beach to the WH after three days of golfing, Trump was asked if there is there a threshold of pain in the market that would cause him to back down on tariffs: “I think your question is so stupid. Sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something.”

… Fox host Maria Bartiromo: “It is going to have an effect on Main Street. Some things will become higher priced. We will see some products be raised in price because companies will pass on the costs of tariffs to consumers.”

… Pro-Trump CNBC host Joe Kernan to Trade Advisor Peter Navarro: “The methodology that was used has been universally derided as being non-serious. The tariffs are much higher than anyone anticipated. This has caused what you’re seeing in the stock market and a lot of head scratching and head shaking on whether anyone really knows what they’re doing.”

… Right-wing talk show host Trish Regan: “It’s pretty shameful. Trump surrounded himself with self-interested idiots that don’t care about HIS legacy and are illiterate at math. This is not what America voted for. Trump shouldn’t have to check their dumb math — THEY NEED to do their jobs. Unless it was deliberate sabotage? A mole within hopping to take down markets, the economy and thus MAGA? Crazier things have happened.”

… Oaktree Capital’s Howard Marks to Bloomberg: “We’ve gone from free trade and world trade and globalization to this system, which implies significant restrictions on trade in every direction and a step toward isolation for the US.”

… Goldman Sachs’s Tony Pasquariello: “Liberation Day was a knock-down, drag-out affair. There was a harshness that surprised even the most hawkish people I know.”

… JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon: “Whatever you think of the legitimate reasons for the newly announced tariffs or the long-term effect, good or bad, there are likely to be important short-term effects. We are likely to see inflationary outcomes, not only on imported goods but on domestic prices, as input costs rise and demand increases on domestic products. Whether or not the menu of tariffs causes a recession remains in question, but it will slow down growth.”

… Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a recession up to 45%.

… Trump was asked if he spoke to industry leaders and CEOs about his tariffs: “I've talked to the biggest in the world. I talked to the biggest of them all, many of them. You know what they said? We don't blame you.” Reporter: Who did you talk to? Trump: “I don't want to say.”

… The Dow was down another 349 points (0.91%). Tesla stock dropped another 6.14 points (2.56%).

… Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ): “The stock market is a reality check on government decisions — a million minds pricing the future. Right now, it’s screaming: DONALD TRUMP HAS LOST HIS MIND!”

… CNN’s Kasie Hunt asked Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) if this was Trump’s economy now: “Oh, I think it is. No question. I think once he decided to add the tariffs, clearly he will be held responsible, as he should.”

… WH Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett was asked for some specifics on Fox about Trump’s claim that he has at least 50 countries ready to make a deal with him to eliminate their tariffs: “When he does, he's gonna sign with that big long beautiful signature and he will have made a great deal for America.”

… Trump posted on Truth Social: “If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long term trading abuses by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, the US will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th. Additionally, all talks with China concerning their requested meetings with us will be terminated! Negotiations with other countries, which have also requested meetings, will begin taking place immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

… As with all things Trump, his words/promises/claims mean absolutely nothing. Until it is in black and white and signed, it is all BS as far as I am concerned.

… Reuters reported that the EU will impose reciprocal tariffs of 25% on U.S. goods effective May 16.

… Fox host Jesse Watters: “What Lutnick is saying is that American workers are not going to be screwing in little screws to iPhones. He is saying the future is AI, automation, and robotics. You’re going to need blue collar workers to service these robots.”

… Trump on Truth Social: “The US has a chance to do something that should have been done DECADES AGO. Don’t be Weak! Don’t be Stupid! Don’t be a PANICAN (A new party based on Weak and Stupid people!). Be Strong, Courageous, and Patient, and GREATNESS will be the result!”

… Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, who went all-in on Trump in 2024, made a series of posts on social media showing that he is rapidly getting disillusioned with the direction of the Admin. He said Trump’s tariff policies were causing “a self-induced, economic nuclear winter. We are in the process of destroying confidence in our country as a trading partner, as a place to do business, and as a market to invest capital.”

… Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) to Ackman: “If you enabled him in becoming president, may I suggest you shut the fuck up?”

… Ackman: “I just figured out why Howard Lutnick is indifferent to the stock market and the economy crashing. He and Cantor are long bonds. He profits when our economy implodes. It’s a bad idea to pick a Secretary of Commerce whose firm is levered long fixed income. It’s an irreconcilable conflict of interest.”

… Ackman, 12 hours later: “It was unfair of me to lash out at Howard Lutnick. I don’t think he is pursuing his self interest. I am sure he is doing the best he can for the country while representing the President as Commerce Secretary. It is not an easy job and we don’t know how the sausage was made. I am just frustrated watching what I believe to be a major policy error occur after our country and the president have been making huge economic progress that is now at risk due to the tariffs. I would love to be proven wrong and watch this approach to tariffs and/or their resolution be enormously beneficial to our country and the global economy.”

From Financial Times:

… Trump was asked if he was concerned that his tariffs might drive big US trading partners like Japan and South Korea into the arms of China: “I'm not worried about it. I'm not worried about it. The Chinese have turned out to be not very good at that.”

Amazing response from everyone to the Top 15 Signs post from the protests on Saturday that I made on Substack yesterday. Over 789,000 people checked it out, with over 9,000 comments. It also got 8.1 million views on X with 228,000 likes, and another 50,000 likes on Bluesky.

If you missed yesterday’s Bulletin, you can find it here. The Top 15 Signs post is here.

… After making a dozen or so posts a day for years on X, JD Vance strangely hasn’t made a single post in over 5 days.

… Punchbowl: “STEEL YOURSELF for a week of chaos. Futures tanking. On track for biggest 3-day drop in nearly 4 decades. House and Senate Republicans are beginning to panic about the trade war. But the leadership - principally Speaker