Today in Politics, Bulletin 327. 3/13/26
… CNN: “The Pentagon and NSC significantly underestimated Iran’s willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to US military strikes while planning the ongoing operation, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter. Trump’s national security team failed to fully account for the potential consequences of what some officials have described as a worst-case scenario now facing the admin.”
… “While key officials from the Depts of Energy and Treasury were present for some of the official planning meetings about the operation before it started, the agency analysis and forecasts that would be integral elements of the decision-making process in past admins were secondary considerations.”
… Sen. Andy Kim (D-NJ): “I worked at Pentagon, State and WH on Middle East and every assessment about possible conflict with Iran started with the real possibility of closing Strait of Hormuz. I guarantee Trump leaders were warned. They just thought they were better than the experts.”
… WaPo: “The Trump admin temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil shipments in an effort to calm markets and stem the economic fallout from its war on Iran, which has sent crude prices spiraling upward. This allows Russia to begin selling some 128 million barrels of oil that are estimated to have already been loaded onto tankers previously facing restrictions from the US.”
… On Thursday, futures for Brent crude oil closed at just above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022. The move will provide a huge financial boost to Russia, which experts say has already been receiving about $150 million per day from increased oil sales since the US attacked Iran two weeks ago. The lifting of the sanctions positions Putin as one of the biggest beneficiaries Trump’s war on Iran.”
… Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH): “As Putin helps Iran target Americans in the Middle East, Trump is now filling the Kremlin’s war coffers. Instead of squeezing Russia’s faltering economy, the President’s ill-planned war is giving Putin a windfall while American families face higher prices.”
… Javier Blas with Bloomberg: “US has further eased Russian sanctions, allowing ALL countries (and not just India) to buy Russian oil already loaded by March 12. Vladimir Putin continues to cash in on Trump’s attack on Iran. The Kremlin can sell stranded oil barrels at much higher prices.”
… Financial Times: “Moscow has so far earned an estimated $1.9 billion windfall from taxes on oil exports, making it the biggest winner from the conflict in the Middle East.”
… Kobeissi Letter today: “US oil prices erase losses and turn positive on the day, now back above $97/barrel, as the Trump Admin does not provide a timeline on when the Iran war will end. We are nearing $100/barrel as the US appears to have lost control of the oil market again.”
… Gregg Carlson with The Economist: “Trump is discovering in real time that you can’t bullshit your way out of trouble in commodities markets the way you can with a stock-market panic, because you need to actually get stuff moving in the physical world.”
… WSJ: “The Pentagon is moving a Marine expeditionary unit to the Middle East, as Iran steps up its attacks on the Strait of Hormuz. Pete Hegseth has approved a request from US Central Command, responsible for American forces in the Middle East, for the expeditionary unit, typically consisting of up to 2,500 Marines. The move comes as Iran’s attacks on the strait have paralyzed traffic through the strategic waterway, disrupting the global economy, driving up gas prices.”
… Rep. Keith Self (R-TX) on Fox: “You do not defeat a nation with air power only. We may need special forces to go in to do some of the operations on the ground.”
… Shashank Joshi with The Economist: “Let’s be clear: you would not be pulling THAADs from South Korea and moving a Marine Expeditionary Unit from Japan to the Gulf two weeks after launching a war on Iran if you had properly anticipated the fallout it would be likely to cause.”
… NYT: “All 6 crew members died after a US military KC-135 refueling aircraft that was part of the American and Israeli war against Iran crashed in neighboring Iraq. The deaths brought the number of US service members killed in operations related to the Iran conflict to at least 13.”
… Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) was asked about the latest news that the death toll for US service members during Trump’s War on Iran is now up to 13: “Well, America’s sons and daughters have signed up to give the ultimate sacrifice.”
… Financial Times: The US has burned through years worth of munitions since start of the Iran war. Concerns are reportedly mounting around rising costs and the US’ ability to replenish stockpiles. The rapid depletion of weaponry includes advanced long-range Tomahawk missiles. The Pentagon is set to request $50 billion in additional spending for the military.
… NYT: “Pete Hegseth has made contempt for what he calls ‘stupid rules of engagement’ - limits meant to reduce risks to civilians - central to his political identity, and has boasted that he unleashed the military to use ‘maximum authorities on the battlefield’ in the Iran war.”
… Hegseth 4 days before the girls school in Iran was bombed: “Our warfighters have maximum authorities granted personally by the president and yours truly. Our rules of engagement are bold, precise and designed to unleash American power, not shackle it.”
… “This and similar statements are now the backdrop to a body of evidence that the destruction of an Iranian elementary school during the opening hours of the war was likely caused by an American missile strike:
What standards of certainty were imposed on planners for the strikes for vetting and validating potential targets?
Does Hegseth’s repeated statement that he gave the military ‘maximum authority on the battlefield,’ compared with the practice in past wars, mean the standards were formally lowered?
Whatever the rules were on paper, did such comments contribute to a culture of moving faster and with less care - of ‘no hesitation,’ in his words - among the planners, resulting in negligence or recklessness?”
… Hegseth gave another batshit crazy press conference today. Here were some of the key things he said:
“No quarter, no mercy for our enemies. Yet some in the press just can’t stop. More fake news from CNN reports that the Trump admin underestimated the Iran war’s impact on the Strait of Hormuz. The sooner David Ellison takes over that network, the better.”
“Today will be yet again the highest volume of strikes that America has put over the skies of Iran and Tehran. The number of sorties and number of bomber pulses, the highest yet, ramping up and only up. And quantity has a quality of its own.”
“The only thing prohibiting transit in the straits right now is Iran shooting at shipping. It is open for transit should Iran not do that. We have a plan for every option here. We’re aware of that. We’re laser focused.”
… Ian Bremmer with Eurasia Group: “This is true. The strait is open and Iranian tankers are transiting with oil bound for China. The US is not interfering with Iranian tanker traffic. The US could stop them, but that would antagonize China and further escalate the war. So…here we are.”
Q - “On the girl’s school - there has been reporting that indicates a preliminary inquiry has determined that the airstrike was carried out by the US. Hegseth: We’re not going to let reporting lead us or force our hand into indicating what happened in a particular situation. There’s only one entity in this conflict between us and Iran that never targets civilians.”
“We fly over the top of Iran and Tehran, fighters and bombers all day, picking targets as they choose. Looking up, the Iranian regime sees only two things on the side of aircraft: the stars and stripes and the Star of David, the evil regime’s worst nightmare.”
Q - “You have said that the US military has air and naval superiority over Iran, yet we’re not escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Why? How did you not plan for this? Hegseth: We planned for it. We want to do it sequentially in a way that makes the most sense for what we want to achieve.”
“They are exercising sheer desperation in the Straits of Hormuz, something we’re dealing with. We have been dealing with it and don’t need to worry about it.”
… Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA): “Trump went guns blazing into this war without planning for predictable countermeasures like what’s happening with the Straight of Hormuz.
Staggering levels of incompetence that defy any coherent definition of American interests.”
“Here’s another example of a fake headline that I saw yesterday: ‘War Widening’. Here’s a real headline for you for an actual patriotic press: Iran shrinking, going underground. The only thing that is widening is our advantage.”
… Metro (UK): “Iran has launched their latest barrage of missiles hitting the International Financial Centre in Dubai as well as entering Turkish airspace. Tehran has rained drone strikes across the Middle East after the US and Israel killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This morning smoke could be seen billowing across the heart of Dubai after Iran launched their latest retaliatory strikes.”
… “Banks in Dubai ordered their staff not to return to the offices, after Iran swore to hit US and Israeli financial institutions. A luxury skyscraper filled with homes was hit yesterday, with a fire spreading throughout the building in Dubai Creek Harbor. Missiles have rained down on the city since Iran has launched retaliatory strikes across the Middle East since the US and Israel bombed Tehran.”
… Daily Mail: “Dubai has been deserted by its army of influencers and thousands of expats with its sun loungers and pools lying empty as Iran continues to pound the UAE. Once a tax-free haven attracting social media stars seeking warm weather and crime-free streets, Dubai’s carefully crafted image has been shattered and some residents believe it is ‘finished’.”
… “Thousands have fled the war-torn city, vowing to never return as the Islamic Republic sends barrages of missiles and suicide drones at glitzy skyscrapers and glamorous 5-star hotels, even striking the world famous Fairmont hotel on Palm Jumeirah.”
“We’re used to bad reporting. We’re used to ill informed reporting.”
“Their leaders have gone underground, cowering. That’s what rats do.”
… Iran’s National Security Council chief Ali Larijani responded by posting pictures of himself from earlier today with this caption: Mr. Hegseth! Our leaders have been, and still are, among the people. But your leaders? On Epstein’s island!”
“We know who the good guys are here. And the American people do too. And that makes my job simple. I serve God, the troops, the country, the Constitution, and the president and answer only to those all in service of victory on the battlefield and the military objectives that we’ve laid out from day one.”
… Hegseth once again providing ample material for SNL’s Colin Jost.
… Jim Acosta: “The major networks and news outlets were not participants in that Pentagon ‘briefing.’ Lindell TV, One America News, Real America News all asked ‘questions.’ This is happening in the United States. Fills you with confidence?”
… Financial Times: “European countries including France have opened talks with Tehran seeking to negotiate a deal to guarantee safe passage for their ships through the Strait of Hormuz, according to people briefed on the efforts.”
… NBC: “How the war in Iran is going, and what the ultimate goal is, depends on the day, the hour and which admin official is speaking at that moment. Trump initially said the strikes constituted ‘major combat operations’ that would likely be over in 4 or 5 weeks. But since then, he’s declared that the war is already ‘won’ while also saying the US still needs to ‘finish the job.’ The operations could end ‘soon’ or the military may need to go ‘further.’”
… Trump posted: “We are totally destroying the terrorist regime of Iran, militarily, economically, and otherwise, yet, if you read the Failing NYT, you would incorrectly think that we are not winning. We have unparalleled firepower, unlimited ammunition, and plenty of time - Watch what happens to these deranged scumbags today. They’ve been killing innocent people all over the world for 47 years, and now I, as the 47th President of the USA, am killing them. What a great honor it is to do so!
… Sky Sports: “Formula 1’s Grands Prix in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia in April are set to be called off this weekend due to the conflict in the Middle East.”
… CNBC: “Economic growth was much slower than expected in the final 3 months of 2025 while core inflation rose to start 2026, the Commerce Dept reported Friday. GDP rose at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate of just 0.7% in Q4. The first revision of the GDP reading was a sharp step down from the previous estimate of 1.4% and well below the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 1.5%.
… JD Vance: “A lot of people in the media said that the reason we made a change at DHS is because we are backing off of our illegal immigration policy. That couldn’t be further from the truth. The reason is because Kristi Noem has a great opportunity to serve in this Shield of Americas position.”
… He really does think everyone in America is an idiot just because many of his cultists are. Yeah right, this was a PROMOTION for Kristi because she really wanted leave presiding over a massive federal agency with a fleet of private planes, boats, helicopters, vehicles and posh residence to do some bullshit thing Trump came up in the Mar-a-Lago ballroom.
… Journalist Rachael Bade: “Trump to associates: Keep Noem away. The president has told confidants and staff that he doesn’t want Noem around anymore, per 3 people familiar. Noem or her team have been informed in recent days that she is not on the guest list for a couple of events at the WH, including Thursday’s Women’s History Month celebration, as well as today’s event for rodeo champions.”
… Getting frozen out of the rodeo champion thing definitely hurt.
Reminder that I am off on Saturdays so next Bulletin will be out Sunday night recapping the entire weekend. This is Maple Weekend in NH and next week is Maple Weekend in Maine, so we are heading out for some hands on experience as the farms open up for tours as they bring in the sap.
I like to support small family-owned businesses, and there is no better way to do that in New England than a maple farm. Plus it is going to be snowing tomorrow.
If you missed yesterday’s Bulletin, you can find it here.
… DC US Attorney Jeanine Pirro went off on a wild tirade against a reporter who asked her why the office has been on a historic losing streak since she took over: “Oh, cut it out. Cut it out! Historic? Really? I’ll tell you what’s historic I prosecute everything other than 10% of the cases that come in. I’m willing to take a not guilty! I’m willing to take a
