Today in Politics, Bulletin 332. 3/20/26

… NYT: “Trump’s meeting with PM Sanae Takaichi at the WH was the talk of Japan on Friday. But the focus wasn’t just on investment deals and geopolitics: It was on Trump’s Pearl Harbor joke. Many Japanese scholars, politicians and commentators were aghast.”

… “Some criticized Trump, saying he should not have revived a painful World War II chapter so casually. Others directed their anger at Takaichi, saying she should have spoken up. Still others said they were concerned that it might harm relations between Japan and the US.”

… Popular Japanese morning show host Toru Tamagawa on his broadcast: “This showed an unpleasant side of Trump. He doesn’t care at all that the Japanese prime minister is sitting next to him.”

… Izuru Makihara, a political science professor at Univ of Tokyo: “This is something that absolutely shouldn’t be said. He might start saying things like, ‘Hiroshima and Nagasaki were fine, weren’t they?’ For Japanese people, we can’t accept that.”

… Assistant AG Harmeet Dhillon was asked on Newsmax if DOJ intended to release any more of the Epstein files: “We’ve released all the documents that we’re able to release. There’s about 200,000 pages worth of documents that have been withheld for legal privilege reasons.”

… NBC: Pete Hegseth met privately Wed with the families of 6 service members who died in the Iran war and, in a press briefing the next morning, said the message he got was consistent and supportive: “They said, ‘Finish this. Honor their sacrifice. Do not waver. Do not stop until the job is done’.”

… One of the people he met at Dover Air Force Base was Charles Simmons. His son, Tech. Sgt. Tyler Simmons, was among the crew members killed when their refueling plane crashed in Iraq last week. Simmons recalled his exchange differently: “I can’t speak for the other families. When he spoke to me, that was not something we talked about.”

… Trump is signaling an intent to bail out of his Great Iran Folly, by redefining his “objectives” on the fly to give him an off ramp. He posted this: “We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran:

• Completely degrading Iranian Missile Capability, Launchers, and everything else pertaining to them.

• Destroying Iran's Defense Industrial Base.

• Eliminating their Navy and Air Force, including Anti Aircraft Weaponry.

• Never allowing Iran to get even close to Nuclear Capability, and always being in a position where the U.S.A. can quickly and powerfully react to such a situation, should it take place.

• Protecting, at the highest level, our Middle Eastern Allies, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and others.

… The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it - The US does not! If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn't be necessary once Iran's threat is eradicated. Importantly, it will be an easy Military Operation for them.”

… Translation: Trump is about to bail out of his Great Iran Debacle and let everyone else pick up the pieces of the chaos he left behind.

… WaPo: “Nearly 3 weeks into the conflict, the war aims are diverging between a US president who saw the historic opportunity of a quick military victory with only modest economic pain and an Israeli leader with grander visions of toppling a regime he’s sought to vanquish for 40 years, said multiple US, Israeli and Middle East officials.”

… “Trump has marveled at the devastation the military campaign has wrought on Iran’s regime while recoiling at the catastrophic economic impacts rippling across the globe. Netanyahu’s months-long campaign to convince Trump to attack Iran and Marco Rubio’s off-the-cuff disclosure that Israel’s determination to strike compelled US officials to act, infuriated Trump’s ‘America First’ supporters, who questioned a foreign power’s role in bringing the US to war.”

… “The admin tried to reset the narrative that the war was Trump’s decision alone but that message was undercut by this week’s resignation of the president’s top counterterrorism official, Joe Kent, who wrote in his resignation letter that the US was dragged into another Middle East war ‘due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby’.”

… “Netanyahu, for his part, is seizing an opportunity to decimate an arch rival under a US president that has given him a longer military leash than any other leader in American history. Senior Trump admin official: “Israel is pursuing a scorched-earth campaign of regime change, which is not what our goal is. Bibi wants to wreck Iran’s economy and decimate its energy infrastructure. Trump wants to keep it intact.”

… Although it certainly sounds from the words coming from Trump and his admin officials that they are looking for an off-ramp, they are still behaving like people who intend to escalate. But that could also be because Trump has changed his mind ten times over the last 48 hours because he has no plan and is bumbling his way through this disaster.

… WSJ: “The Pentagon is sending 3 warships and thousands of additional Marines to the Middle East, even as Trump insists he won’t put American boots on the ground in Iran. Roughly 2,200-2,500 Marines from the USS Boxer amphibious ready group and 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit are heading to the US Central Command.”

… “This is the second massive deployment of Marines in the past week, after the Pentagon sent the Japan-based USS Tripoli and 31st MEU to the region. The news comes just a day after Trump said he had no plans to put American troops on the ground in Iran.”

… Axios: The Trump admin is considering plans to occupy or blockade Iran’s Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump can’t end the war, at least on his terms, until he breaks Iran’s chokehold on shipping through the strait. In the meantime, global energy prices are surging. But an operation to take over Kharg Island, which sits 15 miles offshore and processes 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports, could put US troops more directly in the line of fire.”

… Senior admin official: “He wants Hormuz open. If he has to take Kharg Island to make it happen, that’s going to happen. If he decides to have a coastal invasion, that’s going to happen. But that decision hasn’t been made.”

… Second senior official: “We’ve always had boots on the ground in conflicts under every president, including Trump. I know this is a fixation in the media, and I get the politics, but the president is going to do what’s right.”

… Trump was asked about it today: “I seem to have great support. CNN came out with a poll today that I'm at 100%. They said they have never seen a poll like that. The CNN poll said I'm at 100%.”

… Of course he’s completely misrepresenting this “poll”, where CNN pollster Harry Enten claimed that 100% of MAGA Republicans supported the war. Even that is BS - other polls have shows as many as 17% of MAGA opposing it. But I will say that the second I saw the segment from CNN on this I knew exactly what Trump was going to do with it. CNN increasingly serving as Trump’s useful idiot.

… Middle East analyst Dennis Citrinowicz: “Even a blockade of Kharg Island would not force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This (yet again) reflects a persistent misunderstanding of Iran’s strategic doctrine. For Tehran, control over the Strait is not just economic leverage—it is a core component of regime survival and deterrence.
Under pressure, Iran is more likely to escalate than concede.”

… “Reopening the Strait would likely require one of two extreme options: either regime change, or a large-scale military campaign to seize and secure the waterway. Such an operation would take months and still wouldn’t prevent Iran from disrupting traffic through asymmetric means.”

… “There is no silver bullet to the Iran problem. The regime will hold onto Hormuz the same way it defends every pillar of its survival—with persistence and escalation. If reopening the Strait is the strategic objective, policymakers should recognize the cost: a prolonged, high-intensity conflict, and likely retaliation against Gulf energy infrastructure.”

… NYT columnist Nicholas Kristof: “There’s a parallel with China. After Trump started his trade war with Beijing, Xi Jinping picked up rare earths as a counterweapon - and now continues to use it. Likewise, Iran discovered how much leverage it has by controlling Hormuz and may not want to put the weapon down again.”

… Trump was asked today how he planned to open the Straight of Hormuz: “At a certain point, it will open itself.”

… Geopolitical analyst Shaiel Ben-Ephraim: “Israel has been pummeled all night. Based on my counts of alerts and reports of landings from open sources the number increased tonight. My Whatsapp groups are filled with people having breakdowns after not sleeping for 2 weeks. In Jerusalem, 4 alerts were heard in a 90 minute span. Iran has been able to increase the number of launches daily. Everyone seems angry at the IDF and Netanyahu for lying about the destruction of Iranian capabilities.”

… Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) on Fox: Q - “The Pentagon is sending thousands of Marines to the Middle East. Trump says he doesn’t want boots on the ground, so what are these Marines doing there? Ernst: Hahaha. Well, they provide a lot of leverage. I love the president when he keeps reporters on their toes. Believe me, Donald J Trump has the best interests of the US at heart.”

… Rep. Mike Haridopolos (R-FL) on CSPAN: Q - Would you consider the military taking over Kharg island boots on the ground? Haridopolos: I think people would see that as an occupation of a vital economic interest. As a history teacher, I consider boots on the ground occupying an entire country like we did after WW2 in Japan.”

… As a Marine, I would consider my boots on Iranian territory during a war with Iran having my boots on the ground.

… Trump posted: “Without the USA, NATO IS A PAPER TIGER! They didn’t want to join the fight to stop a Nuclear Powered Iran. Now that fight is Militarily WON, with very little danger for them, they complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay, but don’t want to help open the Strait of Hormuz, a simple military maneuver that is the single reason for the high oil prices. So easy for them to do, with so little risk. COWARDS, and we will REMEMBER!”

… Ukrainian journalist Igor Sushko: “Russia is sending a massive load of weapons and munitions to Iran disguised as a ‘humanitarian convoy’ via Tajikistan. Exact playbook Russia used to send arms into east Ukraine in 2014 after annexing Crimea.”

… Politico EU: “Moscow proposed a quid pro quo to the US under which the Kremlin would stop sharing intelligence information with Iran, such as the precise coordinates of US military assets in the Middle East, if Washington ceased supplying Ukraine with intel about Russia. The proposal was made by Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev to Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner during their meeting last week in Miami. The US rejected the proposal, according to sources.”

… “Nevertheless, the sheer existence of such a proposal has sparked concern among European diplomats, who worry Moscow is trying to drive a wedge between Europe and the US at a critical moment for transatlantic relations. One EU diplomat called the Russian proposal ‘outrageous.’”

… “The suggested deal is likely to fuel growing suspicions in Europe that the Witkoff-Dmitriev meetings are not delivering concrete progress toward a peace agreement in Ukraine, but are instead seen by Moscow as a chance to lure Washington into a deal between the two powers that leaves Europe on the sidelines.”

… Interior Secretary Doug Burgum on Fox: “What we might consider our traditional allies from Europe have been less than reliable. And from the time that we've spent working with those folks in Eastern Europe, the closer they are to Russia, the more aligned they are with Trump and the more aligned they are on energy policy.”

… This is a disgusting statement that reflects the general view of the Trump admin and increasingly the Republican Party as a whole.

… FBI Director Kash Patel issued this statement today: “The FBI has identified cyber actors associated with Russian Intelligence Services targeting users of commercial messaging applications, including Signal. The campaign targets individuals of high intelligence value, including current and former US govt officials, military personnel, political figures, and journalists.”

… “Globally, this effort has resulted in unauthorized access to thousands of individual accounts. After gaining access, the actors can view messages and contact lists, send messages as the victim, and conduct additional phishing from a trusted identity. It's important for you to be aware and take action - this vulnerability is not with the application - but you as the end user.”

… The Times (UK): Ukrainian instructors sent to assist in the Middle East are shocked by how the US intercepts targets. According to Ukrainian officers and instructors from the Ukrainian Armed Forces, who were involved in the defense of the Gulf countries, the US launched as many as 8 Patriot missiles at a single enemy target, each costing over 3 million dollars.

… One Ukrainian officer deployed to the Middle East to assist US forces with drone interception: “I don’t understand what they were doing, what they were watching for 4 years while we’ve been at war.”

… ABC: “Sticker shock has plagued drivers at the gas pump since the outbreak of war with Iran, but higher prices could soon follow them to the grocery store, the mall and just about everywhere else they shop. The reason for that is a surge in the cost of diesel fuel, which powers many of the trucks, trains and ships that transport products across a vast global supply chain.”

… Economist Tyler Schipper: “Pretty much everything you buy off a shelf is delivered by a truck that uses diesel. It’s the mechanism that takes an energy crisis in the Middle East and feeds it into other prices.”

… “Since diesel is the lifeblood of the supply chain, a sudden rise in fuel costs will all but certainly result in higher prices charged by wholesalers in response to elevated transport expenses. In turn, many retailers will pass those costs along to shoppers, raising prices on shelves.”

… “The price effects will likely show up first in fresh fruits and vegetables, since their short shelf life leaves them especially vulnerable to sudden increases in supply-chain costs, Schipper said. Other perishable products like grains and meats could also prove price sensitive, he added.”

… Energy Secretary Chris Wright on Fox Business: Q - “What do you make of Saudi Arabia saying oil prices could soar past $180 by late April? Wright: Iran’s attacks have been terrifying. The destruction certainly is not helpful for global oil prices.”

… He was then asked about the US allowing Iran to continue to sell their oil: Q - “Some people are saying, how do you justify Iran monetizing oil during this conflict? Wright - Yeah. Well, this is a very short-term period. That oil was gonna be monetized anyway. This president has had the bold leadership. It’s a rough conflict to go through, but it’s very, very necessary.”

… Journalist Jim Roberts responding to Wright’s interview: “3 weeks into Trump’s war, and as each day passes, it is ever more clear that the clown car admin had no plan going in and has no idea how to deal with the consequences.”

… Commodities analyst Giovanni Staunovo: “The amount of oil stored at sea - a vital buffer for markets - is running down fast, as supply from the Persian Gulf remains constrained for a third week and buyers are forced to find quick alternatives. It’s a hoard that could shrink even more swiftly if the US advances a proposal to remove sanctions on seaborne Iranian barrels.”

… “Crude oil and condensate in floating storage has been falling by 1.8 million barrels a day since the war began, one of the fastest rates in years. It now stands at around 78 million barrels, - and around a third of what’s left is from Iran.”

… Rep. Mark Harris (R-NC) on Newsmax: “Everybody continues to be concerned about the rising gas prices. I talked with a guy in my district who owns a trucking company, and everybody is feeling this is a dramatic way. As he explained to me, the difficulty is you can’t pass a surcharge onto your customers because they don’t have it in their budgets.”

It was a long week of heavy news and I am looking forward to my day off tomorrow. Last week we did Maple Weekend in NH. Tomorrow begins Maple Weekend in Maine and we are headed out to 6 farms. Each one puts out samples of various maple products and has different kinds of festivities/tours going on. It will be good to unplug for a day and get out into the forest of Maine.

We gear up next week for No Kings. I had an idea I posted on social media last night for organizers. During the supply chain crisis caused by covid in 2021, Trump supporters liked to put stickers of Biden on grocery items like steak. They did the same with gas pumps when prices spiked after Russia invaded Ukraine. Maybe we could pass these out to people at No Kings. Just a thought.

I will see you with the Weekend Bulletin on Sunday night. If you missed yesterday’s Bulletin, you can find it here.

… Politico: “Congressional Republicans are confronting serious doubts they can pass Iran war funding on their own, especially as the potential price tag balloons into the hundreds of billions of dollars. The alternative - relying on a handful of Democrats to push it through the Senate - doesn’t look any more likely as Middle East hostilities expand, energy prices rise and more Democratic lawmakers dig in against an