Today in Politics, Bulletin 360. 4/30/26

… Republican leaders launched their midterm pitch to voters with a series of TV appearances trying to defend dismal economic numbers by gaslighting, spinning and lying. It didn’t go well for them.

… Sen. Tim Scott, who heads up the Republican senatorial campaign committee, on Fox: “The fact of the matter is that all of the cylinders are kicking. It is good news. Gas prices continue to come down, which means your groceries will come down a little bit as well. We’ve got a lot of good signs in the economy.”

… Gas market analyst Patrick DeHaan: “LOL WHAT? EVERY SINGLE STATE IS HIGHER. Gas prices in Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Illinois and Wisconsin are now at their highest levels since summer 2022, and are approaching new all-time records. Since March 1, Americans have spent $21.7 billion more on filling their tanks with gas. That includes today’s addition to that figure- $509 million.”

… House GOP Whip Tom Emmer on Fox: Q - “There are so many negative headlines on news apps about Republicans. What are you gonna do going into the midterms about these negative headlines? Emmer: It’s about getting our message to people. The American people are much smarter than these corrupt left-wing journalists are.”

… WH Economic advisor Kevin Hassett on Fox Business: “In the end, people vote their wallets. I don’t really trust surveys. Host: But you gotta look at the numbers. I mean, you got an average of regular of $4.35 a gallon. It’s up 7 cents overnight. Diesel is $5.60. That hits voters hard. How long are they gonna stay at that level? Hassett: As soon as we get the strait open, oil is gonna flow like you’ve never seen before.”

… This graphic was up on the screen during Hassett’s interview.

… House Maj. Leader Steve Scalise on CNBC: “We’ve delivered. People will remember that two years ago, we were paying almost $6 a gallon for gas. Right now it’s in the $3s. Host: When were we paying $6? Scalise: Two and a half years ago. Host: That wasn’t the average price. We are actually above where we were then. Two years ago the average was $3.65.”

… Market analyst Charlie Bilello: “Gas prices in the US have moved up to $4.30 per gallon, their highest level since July 2022. The 44% spike over the last 9 weeks ($2.98/gallon to $4.30/gallon) is the biggest we’ve seen in the past 30 years.”

… Rep. Tim Burchett (R-TN) was asked why gas prices are spiking: “It has to do with the greed of the oil companies. We buy zero oil from Iran. 90% of their oil they sell to China. They’re just gouging us.”

… Trump was asked about gas prices today: Q - “The average price of a gallon of gas is now $4.30 — Trump: And you know what? We’re not going to have a nuclear weapon in the hands of Iran. The gas will go down. There’s so much of it sitting all over the oceans of the world.”

… Kobeissi Letter: “March PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, rises to 3.5%, the highest since August 2023. Core PCE inflation rises to 3.2%, the highest since Nov 2023. In the first month of the Iran War, US inflation hit a 3-year high.”

… Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-WA) to Meidas: Q - “Do you think that Trump has delivered on his promise to lower prices? Newhouse: He’s working on it. Q: If he was in school, what grade would you give him? Newhouse: At least a satisfactory or an ‘E’ for effort.”

… Trump was asked about the midterms on Newsmax: "Everyone says if I was on the ballot, we'd win in a landslide. I have some of the best poll numbers I've ever had."

… Tucker Carlson ripped Trump on his podcast: “You have failed. You have not done a good job running this country. You don’t even care to try. You’d rather run the world or the empire. You don’t want to improve Baltimore. You don’t care about Gary, IN. Rural America makes you sick. Normal leaders would ask themselves, ‘Why are people mad? What are they dissatisfied with? How can I help them? They’re clearly in pain.’”

… A new WaPo/ABC poll after WHCD incident has 28% of Americans approving of the ballroom project despite intense lobbying efforts by Trump and congressional Republicans to justify the ballroom for enhanced security reasons.

… Janet Mills dropped out of the Democratic primary in the US Senate race in Maine, setting up a showdown between Graham Platner and Sen. Susan Collins. Mills cited a lack of money coming in, but it seemed pretty obvious that her heart just wasn’t in the race and is ready to retire after a lifetime in politics.

… Mills also had a much more difficult time than Platner establishing herself as significantly different in many ways than Collins. Collins to Semafor when asked about Mills: “The governor and I both come from old Maine families. We’ve known each other for a very long time and we always had a cordial relationship.”

… Graham Platner after the announcement: “Governor Mills has dedicated her career to this beautiful state. We’re all eternally grateful for her service to the state of Maine as governor and her lifelong career.”

… NOTUS: “One of Democrats’ best pick-up opportunities in the Senate next year might be in deep red Alaska, where former Rep. Mary Peltola is trying to unseat two-term Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan. Democrats are targeting Sullivan over his support for Trump’s tariffs and his war in Iran, hoping to put the state in play amid a challenging political environment for Republicans nationwide.”

… “Rising prices, particularly of health care, utilities and gas, are fueling voter frustration and significantly threatening GOP congressional majorities in Nov. Even Republicans concede that the AK race has become more than simply something to monitor. One Senate Republican said that while Sullivan is optimistic, he’s become ‘clearly concerned’ with the reelection fight given the worsening environment for Republicans nationally.”

… “The fact that he faces Peltola, who is widely considered the best possible recruit Democrats could have won in the state, is focusing more attention on the contest.”

… NOTUS: “Just about everyone is mad at Mike Johnson this week. The majority of the House Republican Conference, GOP senators, the WH and even members of his own leadership team are fighting with the embattled House speaker and believe Johnson has lost control of his members. They are also confused by his strategy, as he has repeatedly fumbled attempts to get must-pass legislation through the chamber.”

… Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX): “Right now, it’s a shit show.”

… Another GOP asked to described Johnson’s handling of this week: “Fucked.”

… Another senior Republican: “This is what happens when you have leadership who can’t organize a one-car parade.”

… Trump posted about the James Comey seashell indictment: “’86’ is a mob term for ‘kill him.’ They say 86 him! 86 47 means ‘kill President Trump.’ James Comey, who is a Dirty Cop, one of the worst, knows this full well! EIGHT MILES OUT, SIX FEET DOWN! Didn’t he also lie to the FBI about this??? I think so!”

… Trump was asked if he really believed Comey was threatening his life with the seashell post: “Well if anybody knows anything about crime, they know ‘86’ is a mob term for ‘kill ‘em.’ You ever see the movies?”

… There is not one single mob move that used that term in the context of committing a violent crime. Not one. Google it.

… Trump ranted on Truth Social for John Thune to abolish the filibuster: “How much abuse can the Republican Senate take from the Radical Left Lunatics in the form of Democrat Senators, before they BLOW UP (TERMINATE!) THE FILIBUSTER, and approve things at a record clip, including The Save Act, that would be unthinkable without the Filibuster Termination??? The Dems will do it on the first hour of their first day. DO NOT BE STUPID!!!”

… He was asked the reason for his post in the Oval Office: “We could pass laws and acts and things that we never even dreamt of passing . And you know what else? We wouldn’t lose for 50 years.”

… WaPo: “Iran and the US are locked in a faceoff over the future of negotiations, with Trump and the leadership in Tehran each confident they can outlast the other amid mounting costs to the global economy from the blockage of a crucial shipping waterway. Both sides believe time is on their side as the Strait of Hormuz is closed to shipping traffic, trapping oil, fertilizer and petroleum products inside the Persian Gulf and driving up energy prices worldwide.”

… “Oil prices surged to their highest level since 2022, reaching $126 per barrel after Trump said Wed that he was prepared to keep up a blockade on Iranian ports until leaders in Tehran ‘cry uncle,’ adding that he was unwilling to strike any bargain that did not restrict Iran’s nuclear program. Iran’s leadership, meanwhile, has discovered a powerful new weapon - its ability to grind shipping traffic to a halt using nothing more than drones and mines, low-cost tools that impose high-cost peril on ships that dare to traverse the strait without permission.”

… “Tehran has offered to negotiate over opening the shipping passage first, postponing nuclear talks, an idea Trump says he has ruled out.”

… Axios: “CENTCOM has prepared a plan for a ‘short and powerful’ wave of strikes on Iran - likely including infrastructure targets - in hopes of breaking the negotiating deadlock. The hope would be that Iran would then return to the negotiating table showing more flexibility on the nuclear issue.”

… “Another plan expected to be shared with Trump is focused on taking over part of the Strait of Hormuz to reopen it to commercial shipping. Such an operation could include ground forces. Another option that has been discussed in the past and might come up in the briefing is a special forces operation to secure Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium.”

… Middle East analyst Danny Citrinowitz: “There Is No Quick Military Fix to the Iran Problem. US is probably looking for a decisive military move that will compel Iran to capitulate. It is not going to work. What 40 days of sustained strikes failed to achieve will not suddenly be accomplished through attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, high-profile assassinations, or even strikes on civilian infrastructure.”

… The assumption that a short, sharp operation could ‘send a message’ to Tehran rests on a fundamental misunderstanding of the regime. Iran is not likely to back down under pressure. More plausibly, it will respond in ways that increase the cost, not just for its adversaries, but for the global economy. Disruptions in the Gulf, attacks through proxies, and broader regional instability are not side effects; they are central components of Iran’s playbook.”

… “Worse still, the belief in a ‘limited’ strike is largely an illusion. Given the profound mistrust between the parties, even a narrowly targeted operation risks triggering a disproportionate response. Escalation in such a context is not a possibility, it is a probability. What begins as a ‘controlled’ action could quickly evolve into a wider and far more dangerous conflict.”

… “There is also a harder truth that policymakers are often reluctant to confront: additional military force is unlikely to bring down, or fundamentally alter, Iran’s regime. The search for a simple, forceful solution is misguided. There is no quick military fix to the Iran problem, and pretending otherwise risks making a difficult situation far worse.”

We had a great show yesterday on Uncovered where we spent the first segment with my analysis of the SCOTUS voting rights decision - focused primarily on the short and long-term political implications. I have a much different take than anyone else I have heard on it. Then we covered many more topics. A link to the show is here.

Tomorrow is also the Ask the Editor podcast where I answer 5 of your questions. Please submit a question you have in the comments below. I wasn’t able to film it last Friday because the news was so crazy I had to completely focus all my time on getting the Bulletin done.

… India Today: “Trump’s naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, with attacks on and seizures of vessels linked to Iranian ports, has significantly disrupted Iran’s trade flows, depriving the country of critical supplies and access to global markets. Now, Pakistan appears to have punched a hole in the blockade with a strategic move to open six key overland trade routes.”

… “Islamabad has operationalized these routes to facilitate the movement of goods into Iran, creating an alternative trade corridor at a time when more than 3,000