This Weekend in Politics, Bulletin 362. 5/3/26

… Trump posted a lengthy announcement on Truth Social on Sunday afternoon announcing that the US will commence a mission to escort ships out of the Strait of Hormuz while warning Iran not to launch any attacks:

“Countries from all over the World, almost all of which are not involved in the Middle Eastern dispute going on so visibly, and violently, for all to see, have asked the US if we could help free up their Ships, which are locked up in the Strait of Hormuz, on something which they have absolutely nothing to do with — They are merely neutral and innocent bystanders! For the good of Iran, the Middle East, and the US, we have told these Countries that we will guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business.”

“I have told my Representatives to inform them that we will use best efforts to get their Ships and Crews safely out of the Strait. In all cases, they said they will not be returning until the area becomes safe for navigation, and everything else. This process, Project Freedom, will begin Monday morning, Middle East time. The Ship movement is merely meant to free up people, companies, and Countries that have done absolutely nothing wrong - They are victims of circumstance.”

“Many of these Ships are running low on food, and everything else necessary for largescale crews to stay on board in a healthy and sanitary manner. I think it would go a long way in showing Goodwill on behalf of all of those who have been fighting so strenuously over the last number of months. If, in any way, this Humanitarian process is interfered with, that interference will, unfortunately, have to be dealt with forcefully.”

… Reuters: “Bankrupt discount carrier Spirit Airlines ceased operations on Sat, the industry's first casualty linked to the Iran war, after failing to secure creditor support for a US govt bailout plan. The collapse of the carrier following a doubling in jet fuel prices during the 2-month-old Iran war will cost ‌thousands of jobs.”

… “It is a blow to Trump, who had proposed $500 million to save Spirit despite opposition from some of his closest advisers and many Republicans in Congress. No US ‌carrier of Spirit’s size - it accounted for 5% of US flights at one point - has liquidated in two decades. Spirit helped keep fares lower in markets where it competed against major carriers.”

… AP: “Spirit Airlines, an impish upstart that shook the industry with its irreverent ads and deep discount fares, announced Sat that it has gone out of business after 34 years. The ultralow cost airline that once operated hundreds of daily flights on its bright yellow planes and employed about 17,000 people said it had ‘started an orderly wind-down of our operations, effective immediately.’”

… “Although Spirit had gone bankrupt twice before, the company said high oil prices, which have been rising because of the war with Iran, made it impossible to stay aloft.The airline said on its website that all flights have been canceled and customer service is no longer available. Some passengers arrived Saturday for flights and were stunned to find them canceled, while workers learned overnight they were out of jobs.”

… Naturally, Trump deployed his army of propagandists to claim that it was all Joe Biden’s fault because he refused to approve Spirit’s merger with JetBlue. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was asked about Spirit on NBC: “This is just more of the mess we inherited from the Biden admin.”

… WH economic advisor Kevin Hassett on CBS: Q - “Spirit blamed the rise in fuel prices for the fact they had to shut down. Are other major companies also at risk of collapse due to this energy shock? Hassett: Other airlines are still operating. They thought ahead way more than the management of Spirit.”

… Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy posted: “THANK A DEMOCRAT. JOE BIDEN AND PETE BUTTIGIEG bragged about blocking the JetBlue–Spirit merger - the very deal that could have SAVED Spirit Airlines.”

… Statement from Spirit: “Sudden and sustained rise in fuel prices in recent weeks ultimately has left us with no alternative.”

… Fuel industry expert Patrick DeHaan: “STRAIT STINGS SPIRIT. Spirit Airlines begins ‘wind-down’, cancels all flights over fuel crisis. Spirit’s restructuring plan assumed jet fuel costs of about $2.24 a gallon in 2026 and $2.14 in 2027, but prices had climbed to about $4.51 a gallon by the end of April.”

… Travel industry site View from the Wing said other airlines are also in trouble, including JetBlue: “Two weeks ago JetBlue founder Dave Neeleman warned that airline could go bankrupt this year and said that nobody would likely buy the whole thing becaue of $9 billion in debt. In other words, it would take chapter 11 addressing liabilities to repackage it for sale.”

… “JetBlue hasn’t made money in 6 years. Between long-term losses, high debt, and increased fuel expense – plus a weak market position in NY, a weakened position in Boston, and possible subsidies to prop up their major competitor in Ft. Lauderdale they’re in a difficult position. Their credit rating has been downgraded to CCC+ and they could be looking at a pre-tax loss greater than $1 billion this year.”

… James Surowiecki, financial writer for The Atlantic: “If JetBlue’s acquisition of Spirit had been approved, there’s a good chance JetBlue would now be headed into bankruptcy, too.”

… But JetBlue would’ve saved Spirit if Joe Biden only had the courage. Right.

… Former NH Gov. Chris Sununu was asked about rising airfares on Newsmax: “If things go on and all of that, you’ll probably see a 10% increase in prices, but that’s all on top of the fact that before the war, the average prices of a domestic airline tickets hadn’t budged in 6 or 7 years.”

… I’m not sure that’s a great selling point for Republicans.

… AAA revised the average national gas price upward, now at $4.45 per gallon. Yesterday it was $4.43, a week ago $4.10. A year ago, $3.17.

… Forbes: “Modern nitrogen-based fertilizers are strongly connected to oil. When oil prices rise, so do fertilizer prices and, as a result, the price of food. The result is wreaking havoc on farmers. The American Farm Bureau found that 70% of farmers couldn’t afford all the fertilizer they needed. And farm diesel prices, which fuel the heavy machinery used in the industry, are up 46% since the end of Feb.”

… WaPo: “6 months ahead of the midterm elections, the Republican Party faces a deteriorating political climate, with Americans broadly dissatisfied with Trump’s leadership on the Iran war and other key issues and an electorate in which Democrats are significantly more motivated to vote, according to a WaPo-ABC News-Ipsos poll.”

… “Trump’s approval on economic issues, which were critical to his political comeback in 2024, has fallen since he launched the Iran war in late Feb. Americans disapprove of his handling of the situation with Iran by 66%-33%. His rating on the economy has declined by 7 points, to 34%. His approval rating on inflation has fallen 5 points in that time to 27% and his lowest rating his handling of the cost of living, with 23% approving vs. 76% disapproving.”

… The new poll showed the following disapproval numbers for Trump:

• 62% his job as president

• 76% cost of living

• 72% inflation

• 66% situation with Iran

• 65% relations with US allies

• 65% the economy

• 61% taxes

• 59% immigration

… Trump announced he was immediately withdrawing 5,000 troops from Germany with more to come. NBC: “The decision to slash troops came after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told students earlier in the week that the US was ‘being humiliated by the Iranian leadership.’ Almost 40,000 U.S. troops are currently stationed in Germany, the largest contingent in Europe.”

… The Chairs of the Senate and House Armed Services committees, Sen. Roger Wicker and Rep. Mike Rogers issued a joint statement: “We are very concerned by the decision to withdraw a US brigade from Germany.” They warned that even though European countries are increasing defense spending, “prematurely reducing America’s forward presence in Europe before those capabilities are fully realized risks undermining deterrence and sending the wrong signal to Vladimir Putin.”

… Polish PM Donald Tusk: “The greatest threat to the transatlantic community are not its external enemies, but the ongoing disintegration of our alliance. We must all do what it takes to reverse this disastrous trend.”

… Andrea Junker: “US troops are not in Germany to protect Germany. They’re there because the US needs bases to conduct operations beyond the North American continent. If Trump withdraws them, he will harm the US, not Germany. It’s absurd how many Americans fail to grasp this.”

… Rep. Jason Crow (D-CO) on CBS: “This isn’t a decision driven by the best interests of our troops and Americans. It’s a decision based on the emotion of Donald Trump.”

… Nathalie Tocci, Prof of Intl Affairs at Johns Hopkins: “Trump’s latest moves on trade and troops in Europe reconfirm two simple facts: no deal with Trump is worth the paper it’s written on and no degree of bending the knee to him makes an iota of a difference (other than shredding European dignity).”

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If you missed Friday’s Bulletin, you can find it here.

… WSJ: “US foreclosure filings hit a 6-year high in the first quarter. The number of US properties with a foreclosure filing rose to almost 119,000 in the first quarter. That marked a 26% jump from the same period a year earlier.”

… AG Todd Blanche was asked on NBC if other people will be prosecuted for posting ‘86 47’, or only James Comey: “Of course not. That’s posted constantly. That phrase is used constantly. Every single case depends om the investigation that is done.”

… Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) on CNN: Q - “Do you think posting 8647 is a crime? Tillis: “No. It makes no sense to me. I used to work in the restaurant industry and I think 86 has its roots as a cook. I can’t find any evidence where 86 is used as a call for violence.”

… Scott Bessent was on Fox complaining about Jerome Powell remaining as a Fed governor after being replaced as Chair by Trump: “Powell's decision to stay as a governor violates all norms. The president has not requested that Powell stay. I am optimistic after a period that he may move on. It is inappropriate for him to try to overshadow the new chair.”

… Powell’s term doesn’t end until January 31, 2028, so he can be a thorn in Trump’s side for most of his presidency.

… Trump was asked on the airport tarmac in Palm Beach about the new proposal from Iran:

• “They told me about the concept of the deal. They did not give me the exact wording.”

• He then claimed he never said that he might be better off not making a deal with Iran. “I wouldn’t have to. I didn’t say that”

… This is what Trump said the night before: “I'm so busy with the Iranians calling trying to make a good deal and we're not going to let that happen. Maybe we're better off not making a deal at all.”

• Q - “In your letter to Congress, you said that hostilities with Iran have been terminated. How can you say that with the naval blockade still in place? Trump: Well, it’s a very friendly blockade.”

… Trump then posted on Truth Social: “I will soon be reviewing the plan that Iran has just sent to us, but can’t imagine that it would be acceptable in that they have not yet paid a big enough price for what they have done to Humanity, and the World, over the last 47 years.”

… Gregory Brew, Iran analyst for Eurasia Group: “Tasnim has reported details of Iran’s proposal, which Trump has said he is reviewing. Included among Iran’s demands:

• Withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iran’s surroundings

• Lifting the naval blockade and a new mechanism for the Strait

• Lifting sanctions

• Release of Iran’s frozen assets

• Paying compensation

• Ending war on all fronts, including Lebanon

… Iran expert Danny Citrinowitz: “Reading Iran’s latest proposal, one conclusion is hard to avoid: after 39 days of war, Tehran believes it has the upper hand. This is not a document from a regime under pressure or seeking an exit. It is a proposal from a govt that sees the war as an opportunity to reshape the strategic landscape in its favor.”

… “Iran is not just asking for an end to hostilities, it is demanding guarantees against future attacks, along with compensation and a structured mechanism to secure it, rooted in its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. Even more troubling is what the proposal does not prioritize. The nuclear issue, ostensibly a central justification for the conflict, is largely deferred.”

… “This puts Washington in a bind. If the admin accepts the proposal, it will face an immediate and uncomfortable question: what was the war for? The likely outcome would be a stronger Iranian regime, newly enriched by sanctions relief, and a nuclear framework that closely resembles earlier proposals, essentially a return to the familiar formula of the JCPOA -constraints in exchange for economic benefits.”

… “But rejecting the proposal offers no easy alternative. It raises a different question: can additional military pressure realistically force Iran into a more favorable position? At this stage, the answer appears extremely doubtful. Even under a potential agreement, some of Iran’s most consequential sources of power like its missile capabilities and regional proxy network, would remain largely untouched.”

… “The result is a strategic dilemma with no clear off-ramp. Either the US moves toward an arrangement that largely reflects Iran’s terms, or it continues escalating in ways that are unlikely to change Tehran’s calculus but are almost certain to deepen global economic instability. Iran’s proposal sends a clear message: it does not intend to concede. The harder question is what Washington intends to do about it.”

… Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) was asked on CBS about the Supreme Court’s decision on majority-minority districts: “I know that there are those who are tired of the remedy. I’m tired of racism. I think it’s a strange position to be more concerned about the medicine than you are about the malady.”

… Todd Blanche was asked on NBC why the Trump admin was demanding the Save Act be passed: "There's a lot of things we can be doing, like voter ID. Every time you walk into a restaurant you have to show ID. How about you have to show your idea to vote? That's not anything that's crazy."

… Axios: “Trump’s allies are growing alarmed that Rep. Nancy Mace - who infuriated him by calling for the release of the Epstein files - will defy expectations and win the SC governor’s race. Mace, who’s running in a fiercely competitive June 9 primary, has been a thorn in Trump’s side, most recently with her criticism of the admin’s handling of the Iran war. She also threatened to side with Dems on a war powers resolution.”

… “People close to the president don’t want Mace as governor — a perch that could help sway the 2028 presidential primary given the state’s early spot on the voting calendar. Polls consistently show Mace near or at the top of the Republican primary field. If no one receives a majority of the vote in the June 9 primary, the nomination will be determined in a two-week runoff pitting the top two finishers.”

… “A recent poll had Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette leading with 19%, followed by Mace with 18, AG Alan Wilson at 15 and Rep. Ralph Norman at 13. One possibility alarming the president’s allies: That Mace and Rep. Ralph Norman advance to a runoff. Norman crossed Trump during the 2024 primary when he endorsed Nikki Haley and called for ‘new leadership’ in the party.”

… Aziz Ansari portrayed Kash Patel on SNL: "I'm a trailblazer. I'm the first Indian person to suck at their job. Everyone says Indian people are smart, hardworking, incredibly intelligent. I prove without a shadow of a doubt that we can be just as incapable and incompetent as the whites."

… Trump ranted on Truth Social about Bill Maher’s Fox appearances: “I hate seeing Fox, and other Conservative Outlets, constantly making Low Rated Bill Maher ‘relevant’ as it pertains to the Republican Party. Fox should stop putting this person on. He’s not representing us. You look weak, stupid, and ineffective, and I hate seeing that. DON’T USE BILL MAHER ANY LONGER AS A REPRESENTATIVE OF YOU! I hate hearing that ‘Bill Maher said…’ - Maher is a MORON, though slightly more talented than Jimmy Kimmel.”

… CNN: “As vacancies have opened atop DOJ, DHS and Labor, Ron Desantis’ name has regularly surfaced as a possible replacement, and he is open to serving in the Trump admin. Multiple people told CNN that Trump is aware DeSantis’ preference would be to lead the Pentagon, though Pete Hegseth’s job appears safe for now.”

… “However, DeSantis’ icy relationship with Trump’s inner circle, including Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and Dep. Chief of Staff James Blair, remains a hurdle to any appointment. Wiles and Blair once worked for Desantis before an acrimonious falling out that became a subplot of the bruising 2024 GOP primary.”

… “Given that history, his reputation in the West Wing is still so poor that JD Vance once overheard a conversation about the governor between Trump aides and remarked, ‘Wow, you guys really hate Ron Desantis.’”

… Guardian: “Military analysts say Pete Hegseth’s recent firings dovetail with plans spelled out in Project 2025, the radical blueprint drawn up by the rightwing Heritage Foundation that has closely guided Trump’s second-term policies.”

… Paul Eaton, retired Army Maj-Gen: “It talked about an officer purge and going after the so-called woke officers at the senior level. They want to create ideologically pure armed forces that will be pliant to the president and his secretary of defense and whose oath will be more to a person than to the constitution. I believe that the senior leadership of the US military has been substantially damaged.”

… “You develop a fracture in the cohesion of the people at that level. If you haven’t been purged, you wonder if you are next if you say the wrong thing to the man or woman on your left or right that may invoke the wrath of the secretary or the president. That’s a really unhealthy environment when you’re afraid to speak your mind, and not just truth to power, but truth in the defense of the armed forces against stupid decisions.”

… Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA) on MS NOW: "Hegseth is an embarrassment to the troops. That's why they call him 'Ranger Pete,' because he's the only Army Major who's never been to Ranger School. The troops don't respect this guy. Members of Congress don’t respect him on both sides of the aisle, but Democrats are the only ones who will call him out.”

… NYT: “Trump’s vision for his National Garden of American Heroes is growing larger and most likely more expensive than his initial estimates, with the latest plans calling for reflecting pools, dining facilities and an amphitheater alongside 250 life-size statues of notable Americans. The plans have expanded to the point that they could require significant redevelopment of W. Potomac Park, an area of mostly sports fields near the National Mall.”

… “The statues alone could cost more than the $40 million approved for the project by Congress, according to the Trump admin’s estimate. Based on the latest renderings, the Garden of Heroes could rank among the more expensive and time-consuming projects Trump has undertaken as he works to remake the nation’s capital in his own style.”

… Trump hosted his first PGA Tour event in 10 years at his golf course in Miami this weekend, and the turnout was dismal with the course largely devoid of fans for all 4 days. I posted pics each day on social media showing the lack of fans. This was a photo of the leaders on the green during Sunday’s final round, which included the #1 player in the world Scottie Scheffler.