Today in Politics, Bulletin 363. 5/4/26

… Iran ended the ceasefire in the region with preemptive strikes today against at least one US vessel, commercial ships in the gulf, and attacked neighboring countries. Trump reacted angrily first on Truth Social, then to Fox, then to reporters on his way to the WH, threatening to wipe Iran off the face of the earth in response.

… Bloomberg: “UAE says intercepted missiles and drones launched against the country - the first attack since a ceasefire between the US and Iran took hold about a month ago. The attack caused a fire in Fujairah, the end point of the pipeline the UAE uses to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.”

… Reuters: “Authorities in the UAE’s Fujairah ‌said that a ​fire broke ​out at the ⁠Fujairah Oil ​Industry Zone following ​what they described as a drone ​attack originating ​from Iran. Civil defense teams ‌were ⁠deployed immediately to contain the blaze.”

… UAE’s Ministry of Defense: “UAE air defenses engaged 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles, and 4 drones. UAE air defenses engaged 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles, and 4 drones originating from Iran, resulting in 3 moderate injuries. Since the start of Iran's brazen attacks on the UAE, air defenses have engaged 549 ballistic missiles, 29 cruise missiles, and 2,260 drones. This brings the total number of injuries to 227 cases, from multiple nationalities.”

… WaPo: “In a call with reporters just now, Adm. Brad Cooper of CENTCOM says Iran has opened fire on US warships and commercial vessels today, but declines to say whether the ceasefire between the US and Iran is over. US forces returned fire and destroyed some Iranian small boats.”

… Oman News Agency: “A security source has reported that a residential building housing company employees in Tibat area of the Wilayat of Bukha was targeted in an attack, resulting in moderate injuries to 2 expatriates, damage to 4 vehicles and the shattering of windows in a neighboring house.”

… CNN: Sources said a resumption of US-Israeli strikes against targets inside Iran are expected within the next day. This follows Iranian strikes on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and against the UAE’s primary oil export infrastructure in Fujairah.

… Senior US official to Axios: “Trump was fed up with the ‘no deal, no war’ stalemate in Iran. The president wants action. He doesn’t want to sit still. He wants pressure. He wants a deal.” A source close to the president described this as the “beginning of a process that could lead to a confrontation with the Iranians.”

… Trita Parsi with the Quincy Institute: “Iranian analyst tells me that Tehran’s warning shots at US warships and the strikes on the UAE reveal Iran’s new posture: If Trump plans to restart the war, Iran will not wait for Trump to do so before it retaliates. It will strike preemptively in a measured way to deter Trump.”

… Hamidreza Azizi, Middle East expert for SWP Berlin: “Iran’’s announcement of an expanded control envelope in the Strait of Hormuz - coupled with strikes on oil facilities in Fujairah and strikes on oil tankers - points to a deliberate escalation toward the UAE’s oil export bypass routes.”

… “The objective is to keep alternative export channels at risk, sustain elevated oil prices, and block any perception of normalization. In other words, the message is that Trump’s mission in the strait will not be cost-free. Instead, it will generate greater complexity and sustained pressure on the energy market.”

… Fox report: “Trump said if the Iranians try to target US ships in the area, they will be blown off the face of the earth.”

… Trump to reporters: “Iran has been given only 24 hours. After that, the world may witness one of the most devastating air strikes ever seen.”

… Trump on Truth Social: “Iran has taken some shots at unrelated Nations with respect to the Ship Movement, PROJECT FREEDOM, including a South Korean Cargo Ship. Perhaps it’s time for South Korea to come and join the mission! We’ve shot down seven small Boats or, as they like to call them, “fast” Boats. It’s all they have left.”

… Iran State TV: “A senior Iranian military official told IRIB that the US claim about sinking several Iranian military boats is false.”

… Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Fox: “I think the Iranians are starting to believe their own propaganda. Their leadership is hunkered down in bunkers. I don’t think they know what’s going on. Their Navy is a band of pirates.”

… IRGC spokesman Ibrahim al-Fiqar: “The clock is ticking to zero hour. Tonight, a new chapter of power will unfold, one the adversaries have never witnessed before.”

… Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-TX): “Iran is leaderless and broken. President Trump has completely CRUSHED their resolve.”

… Middle East expert Danny Citrinowitz: The clash was only a matter of time. After 39 days of fighting, it is possible to point to several key underlying assumptions regarding Iran’s conduct:

• Iran is not expected to submit or be deterred by American threats, no matter how severe.

• From its perspective, control of the Strait of Hormuz is a central strategic interest, on par with its nuclear program and missile array, especially in light of Majtaba’s statements on the matter.

• When faced with a choice between what it perceives as submission and escalation, Tehran will choose escalation and will not be prepared to accept, in its view, dictates, particularly in light of its achievements in the war as it sees them.

• Power centers in the current leadership - the IRGC - operate with less weight given to considerations of profit and loss. The regime’s system of checks and balances has been undermined following the elimination of Ali Khamenei.

• Iran may agree to a ceasefire, but only if it shapes a new strategic reality that includes compensation and guarantees against the resumption of fighting. Not a ceasefire for the sake of a ceasefire.

• Throughout the campaign, Tehran is operating and developing asymmetric capabilities as preparation for continuing the confrontation or renewing it. In this sense, it must be assumed that it has preserved significant capabilities and rehabilitated capabilities during the ceasefire.

• The Iranian leadership assesses that its absorptive capacity is higher than that of the global economy and the US, and at present it is simply acting to raise this price.

• If the US seeks to impose on Iran the acceptance of conditions for a cessation, this requires, in practice, a regime change, with all the risks involved and the resources that will be invested in it.

• The naval blockade, despite its advantages, could not have brought about Iranian submission. The assumption that it could, as well as the assessment that eliminating Khamenei would lead to the collapse of the regime, has proven to be mistaken. And in any case, it was clear that Trump expected something else in a different timeframe (”the pipelines will explode in 3 days”). That’s what happens when you build a strategy on wishful thinking rather than knowledge of the enemy.

• The American admin is still conducting itself toward Iran in familiar patterns based on the notion that it’s dealing with Venezuela, without internalizing that it’s dealing with a rival of a different kind.

… Meanwhile, members of the Trump admin were on Fox claiming that everything was going to be just fine with oil prices:

• Sean Duffy: Q - “When can we expect some relief from the surge in jet fuel prices? Duffy: When the Strait of Hormuz opens, prices will come down. A lot of Democrats are making hay on this issue, complaining about fuel prices. Do you think Democrats want prices to come down? They have a war on energy.”

• Kelly Loeffler: “We continue to give relief in other areas, cutting $6 trillion in regulations that the Biden admin put in place. So the list goes on and on of the relief that we are providing to the American people in real time.”

• Scott Bessent: “We are cognizant that this short-term blip up in prices is affecting the American people, but I am also confident on the other side of this that prices are going to come down very quickly.”

• Rep. John Rose (R-TN) on Newsmax: “Yes, gas prices are high right now, but that’s because the president, I think correctly, decided we had to stop Iran. So we’ll have to endure a little pain here.”

… Last night, Trump posted a meme of himself holding UNO cards on Truth Social, which the WH then reposted on twitter. My caption of it got 217,000 likes and 3.7 million views in less than 24 hours. That was just on twitter.

… WABC: “Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani is hospitalized in critical condition. Giuliani hosted his online show, ‘America’s Mayor Live,’ Friday night from Palm Beach, FL. As he opened the show, he coughed and his voice sounded more raspy than usual. He remarked: ‘My voice is a little under the weather, so I won’t be able to speak as loudly as I usually do, but I’ll get closer to the microphone.’

… Rudy’s spokesman Ted Goodman claimed that his heroism on 9/11 is a contributing factor: “Rudy Giuliani is recovering from pneumonia. On Sept 11th, Mayor Giuliani ran toward the towers to help those in need, which later led to a diagnosis of restrictive airway disease. This condition adds complications to any respiratory illness, and the virus quickly overwhelmed his body, requiring mechanical ventilation to maintain adequate oxygen and stabilize his condition. He remains in critical but stable condition.”

… Trump blamed it on Democrats stressing Rudy out: “Our fabulous Rudy Giuliani, a True Warrior, and the Best Mayor in the History of NYC, BY FAR, has been hospitalized, and is in critical condition. What a tragedy that he was treated so badly by the Radical Left Lunatics, Democrats ALL — AND HE WAS RIGHT ABOUT EVERYTHING! They cheated on the Elections, fabricated hundreds of stories, did anything possible to destroy our Nation, and now, look at Rudy. So sad!”

I expect the next 24-48 hours to get pretty ugly in the Middle East. Despite Trump’s claim that this was going to last 4-6 weeks, we are well into Week 9 and things are only getting worse. This is shaping up to be a nightmare scenario for Republicans heading into the midterms. Trump went into this war with no plan and has no plan to get out of it.

If you missed yesterday’s Bulletin, you can find it here.

… House Oversight ranking member Robert Garcia sent a letter to Chair James Comer about Pam Bondi’s upcoming deposition in the Epstein case: “If you choose to move forward with a transcribed interview, I am concerned with three aspects:

• The videotaping of Bondi’s testimony. Bondi’s testimony must be filmed and made available to the American people.

• Bondi’s willingness to provide substantive and complete testimony. If Bondi refuses to answer questions, we must compel her testimony. Bondi has been