… In another seismic shift, Cook Political just moved 15 more races in their projected ratings of congressional elections in favor of Democrats. Not one race was moved more favorably in the direction of a Republican candidate:
NC-11: Lean R → Toss Up
TX-15: Lean R → Toss Up
FL-22: Lean R → Toss Up
NJ-07: Toss Up → Lean D
AZ-01: Toss Up → Lean D
CO-05: Likely R → Lean R
TX-35: Likely R → Lean R
MT-01: Likely R → Lean R
FL-27: Likely R → Lean R
FL-13: Likely R → Lean R
WI-01: Likely R → Lean R
NV-02: Solid R → Likely R
VA-05: Solid R → Likely R
NY-21: Solid R → Likely R
TX-09: Solid R → Likely R
… Political analyst Mark Halperin had one of the most discussed columns in Republican circles in the last 24 hours on the midterms:
… “As I sift through my inboxes and social media feeds over the most recent extended news cycle, what I see instead is the possibilities that the wheels are coming off for a political figure who is swimming against the tide of a Blue tsunami as big as CT, not because Ken Martin is suddenly a genius, but because an unpopular war and high consumer prices is no way to win a midterm election.
… And, remember, I write this as someone who has been a leading proponent for over a decade of the view that Trump is second only to Bill Clinton over the last 40 years as a political athlete. So, if you are looking for support for the theory that those wheels are coming off the Trump WH bus in the context of the midterms, consider:
This new taxpayer-funded and blatantly political TV ad featuring the president is as obviously illegal as it is appalling (including to many Republicans I have heard from).
The president is considering spending one of his days on the road between now and Election Day in….Alabama???!!
Florida and Kansas are among the many Red places that have sprung a lot of electoral leaks that are going to need to be plugged and fast.
The media ban is considered stupid, ill advised, doomed, and counterproductive but way more people than just Peter Baker (including, again, by many of my pro-Trump Republican sources).
The diesel export ban morass is an own-goal failure on at least 3 levels, and there is now both no easy answer or route out of the political expectations and policy messes.
The rumors have started back up that MAGA Inc. will not spend down its cash pile to help Republican candidates, causing all sorts of finger pointing and teeth gnashing.
The efforts of GOP candidates to distance themselves from the president to save themselves are only just getting underway - and while the WH is (mostly) fine with it (‘they gotta do what they gotta do to win’), the defections produce a lot of negative news stories and no one thinks the president will actually be fine with it.
Trump’s approval rating are in the toilet, fueled by lost support from key groups like young men, women, Hispanics, and independents.
On the Warsh watch, there are swirling interactions between interest rates, the bond market, the size of the debt and deficit, and AI spending dangers that could lead to an economic calamity.
Efforts to get an October Surprise deal with Tehran are almost certainly an illusion and a trap for a dozen reasons, including the inconsistencies of US ‘allies’ in the region about what they want.
Unless there is some big surprise today, the Xi summit looks like a bunch of pageantry with no prospect of helping Republicans in the midterms (and maybe to the contrary).
Peggy Noonan speaks for many when she suggests the president is completely bolloxing up AI for the long term, but/and/also being so pro-AI and data center could go down in history as one of the factors that cost his party majority control of both chambers.
… Fox chief political analyst Brit Hume responded to Halperin’s column: “Bleak outlook for GOP and getting bleaker. This from a political analyst I always pay attention to.”
… Politico: “James Talarico is doing an extraordinary thing for a Democrat in TX: holding his own in late Sept polls amid a historic deluge of $160 million in Republican spending. When he sat down here at the Texas Tribune Festival yesterday, the moderator ticked through the last 10 public polls. Talarico led in every one.”
… “Chuck Schumer is taking notice. Last night, Senate Majority PAC launched an affiliate called Texas Forever. That indicates Democrats are readying to lay some money on the table. The how appears to be a mixture of TX-textured campaigning free from national Democratic Party fingerprints and winning the attention economy - not just nationally, but locally.”
… “His attention economy tally is reminiscent of former Barack Obama. Talarico’s latest Jimmy Kimmel exploit garnered 75 earned media stories about censorship and 12 million YouTube views. Yesterday, he did 5 back-to-back interviews with local rural TV stations about the impacts of imported foreign beef. One of those interviews aired 4 times over 18 hours on a local outlet.”
… One veteran Texas GOP operative: “It’s going to take a Herculean effort to hold the seat. The Monday morning quarterbacking is going to be biblical. The hand-wringing and the blaming. Ken Paxton will blame John Cornyn. Trump will blame Paxton. Trump should blame himself.”
… Talarico at a campaign event: “Ken Paxton has been dodging debates all year, and it’s why today I’m challenging Ken Paxton to a debate on Fox News. I’ll go into the lion’s den because I know what I believe.”
… Talarico then called Ken Paxton’s cell phone on camera and posted the video with this caption after leaving a voicemail: “Ken Paxton keeps dodging debates. So I called his cell to invite him to a debate on Fox News. He didn’t pick up.”
… CNN’s Manu Raju asked TX Sen. John Cornyn about the race: Q - “So you're not planning to help Paxton fundraise at all? Cornyn: That's correct. Q - Why? Cornyn: This is the way majority parties become minority parties - by nominating candidates that are less than appealing to a general election electorate. Q - Does he deserve to be a senator? Cornyn: I'll let the voters decide that.”
… Ouch. Cornyn might not say it out loud, but he’s voting for Talarico.
… NBC: “Texas officials sent tens of thousands of delayed voter registration applications to county election officials this week after discovering an error, sparking a scramble to process them weeks out from the midterms.”
… “The TX secretary of state’s office told election officials last week that a problem with the Dept of Public Safety’s system had been uncovered: Certain incomplete voter registration applications that were missing some info were not sent on to election officials, potentially leaving Texans unregistered or with out-of-date voter files.”
… “State officials started transmitting the records on Tues. It’s unclear how many voters were affected, but large counties have reported tens of thousands of registration applications and updates that election officials must process in the less than a month before early voting begins on Oct. 19. And more applications are sure to pour in ahead of the Oct. 5 deadline to register to vote in TX.”
… Talarico: “Less than two weeks before the voter registration deadline, thousands of Texans are now in the dark about their voter registration status - even more aren’t aware of this error at all. This is what a broken, corrupt political system looks like: Texans follow the rules, register to vote before the deadline, and still risk losing their God-given right to the ballot box because their govt failed to do its job.”
… “The Secretary of State said voters might be better off calling their local registrar’s office. Texas’ online system has reportedly had problems this year, with some registrations inaccurately showing up as inactive.”
… New NYT/Siena poll is out on multiple key races:
NH US Senate:
🟦Chris Pappas 50%
🟥John Sununu 45%
NH Governor:
🟥Kelly Ayotte 52%
🟦Cinde Warmington 41%
ME US Senate:
🟥Susan Collins 49%
🟦Troy Jackson 46%
ME Governor:
🟦Hannah Pingree 47%
🟥Bobby Charles 34%
⬜️Rick Bennett 8%
MI US Senate:
🟦Abdul El-Sayed 49%
🟥Mike Rogers 44%
MI Governor:
🟦Jocelyn Benson 48%
🟥John James 43%
… NBC: “Democrats are heading into the final stretch of the 2026 midterms with their largest lead yet in the race for Congress and Trump’s approval rating at a significant low. A 9 point advantage for Democrats when it comes to control of Congress is part of a steady deterioration of the political environment for Republicans.”
… “The parties started the road to this November effectively tied in the weeks after Trump returned to office last year, but independents have gradually begun to prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress. And those voters have soured on Trump and his economic policies in particular.”
… Politico: “The leaders of Senate Democrats’ flagship super PAC are ‘actively thinking’ about whether to wade into Kansas and other even redder states as the party looks to leverage an increasingly favorable environment ahead of Nov.”
… JB Poersch, the president of Senate Majority PAC: “There’s some good arguments out in not just KS, in 4 or 5 other places. And we’re not just watching - we’re thinking about ways we might get involved if they stay earnestly competitive. We’re actively thinking about what role will we play at that point.”
… Adam Hamilton, the Democratic nominee in the KS senate race, is out with a powerful new ad featuring Meischa, one of Sen. Roger Marshall’s former OB/GYN patients:
“One evening I see lights. I open the door and it’s a police officer. They arrested me because I didn’t make a $50 payment to Roger Marshall. I was 8 months pregnant. I said, ‘please, do not handcuff me in front of my 2 year old daughter.’ Roger Marshall preyed on low-income families of KS.”
… As a graphic on the screen showed that Marshall’s net worth is $10 million, Meischa concluded the ad by saying:
“The health care system is broken, but not for Roger Marshall.”
Reminder there is no Bulletin tomorrow because I’m off Saturdays. We will be attending our favorite fair tomorrow - the big annual Maine Organic Farmers Common Ground Fair. Farmers, artisans, crafters, artists, home cooks and bakers from all over Maine bring their animals, vegetables and products to present and sell.
The key rule is that everything must be made in Maine, which is pretty cool. We are going to attend presentations on beekeeping, growing mushrooms, and native landscapes for homes.
I will be back with the next Bulletin on Sunday night recapping all the news from this weekend. If you missed yesterday’s Bulletin, you can find it here.
… CNN pollster Harry Enten: ““Trump has the highest ‘strongly disapprove’ rating going into a midterm election on record. 50% of Americans now say that they strongly disapprove of the job he’s doing. Trump’s average net approval in the key senate
