Today in Politics, Bulletin 474. 10/5/26

… Turns out the big steel mill project in IA from the company in India that Trump announced to try and rig the election in that state is actually not looking like a great deal after all since the people of IA have to foot the bill for the multinational conglomerate to come there.

… Des Moines Register: Iowa’s $1.36 billion incentive package for a new steel plant will cost the state at least $777,000 per job, much higher than what other states typically offer. That amounts to 32 times more per full-time job than what Iowa officials have provided other projects over the last two years through their usual incentive programs.

… Art of the Deal. Or Art of the Steal. Or Art of the Steel.

… Biosecurity expert Ashish Jha on the pneumonic plague lab leak in Russia:

• “Many of you have been tracking the Irkutsk lab situation over the last few days. I’ve been gathering facts and trying to understand what is happening before weighing in. Now that I have, I have to say - I’m concerned.

• Here’s what we know. A 28-year-old technician at an “anti-plague institute” reportedly broke a tube containing plague pathogen on September 25. She died October 1 or 2. Nearly 200 people are now in medical isolation.

• This is officially a civilian institute. But Russia is well known to have an active military biological weapons program. And our intelligence agencies have publicly stated that their program has been expanding substantially in recent years.

• There are also reports of FSB involvement in the current response. Security services accompanying ambulances transporting exposed contacts. If accurate, that’s not the posture of a routine natural outbreak, even a normal lab accident.

• This is the situation I’ve worried about for a long time and have spoken publicly about as the most likely scenario of something bad. Not that a country with a weapons program deciding to use it. That we have an accidental release from a deliberate program.

• US intelligence assess that Russia’s scientists continue developing biological weapons capabilities. Those programs operate in secret. Nobody outside inspects them and nobody inside has much incentive to admit when something goes wrong.

• Here’s the real bottom line: The number of labs working on dangerous pathogens is growing worldwide. That means incidents like this will happen more often in the months and years ahead.

• Russian authorities owe the world more transparency on exactly what happened in Irkutsk. We need to understand exactly what has happened. And we have to assume we may not know the full truth. And have to act to build up our biodefense accordingly.”

… Trump was asked about it today: Q - “Are you concerned about the outbreak in Russia? Trump: I am. The pneumonia plague, if you call it. That's a disease we used to be able control. But somehow those microbes have gotten stronger and smarter. They're like an army. The germs have really become relatively stronger than they were, and things that used to work on pneumonia don't work as well anymore.”

… Ah yes, the famous pneumonia plague. I’m sure we will hear about injecting bleach soon. I wouldn’t look for him to call it the ‘Russia Virus’ though like he did with China.

… The good news is that if the pneumonic plague does spread and become serious problem we have RFK Jr and Dr. Oz in charge of public health to find us some miracle cures from Trump donors for $99.99 because Trump only appoints the finest people to critically important jobs. So we have nothing to worry about - everything will be fine.

… Daily Beast: “The man who alerted Congress to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s ties to child sex predator Jeffrey Epstein has died. Simon Andriesz, a British former Wall Street banker who once worked under Lutnick, died by suicide at 57.

… Andriesz, who was living in Cornwall, England, exposed the extent of Lutnick’s relationship with Epstein earlier this year when he shared a 2018 email chain with House Oversight Committee lawmakers in which Lutnick and Epstein discussed Adfin, a digital ad company they had both invested in.”

… Andriesz had found the email chain by searching DOJ’s release of millions of Epstein files for ‘HWL,’ Lutnick’s initials, knowing from his years at BGC Partners, a financial brokerage firm where Lutnick was CEO, that executives preferred to use initials in emails.

… The email chain and other material in the Epstein files contradicted Lutnick’s assertions about his relationship with Epstein. Andriesz, who was fired from BGC after raising concerns internally about accounting irregularities, had blown the whistle on Lutnick’s ties to Epstein years before alerting Congress to their correspondence.

… While speaking to the FBI in 2020 and 2021 during an investigation into some of his allegations about the firm, where Lutnick was CEO until last year, he alleged that Lutnick had undeclared business ties to Epstein. The FBI did not investigate the accusations.

… This was Andriesz’s last social media post on August 9:

• “I am the British whistleblower who reported evidence concerning Howard Lutnick, his links to Jeffrey Epstein, and Cantor Fitzgerald and BGC to the FBI in 2020–21. I later shared evidence with the House Oversight Committee, which subsequently questioned Lutnick behind closed doors.

• My disclosures also contributed to regulatory action in the US and UK, including a £96m HMRC tax assessment relating to BGC’s partnership scheme. I believe the true tax exposure is substantially higher. I also reported to the FBI and financial regulators matters involving Cantor Fitzgerald’s Relief Fund and BGC/Cantor’s annual 9/11 Charity Day.

• The personal consequences of whistleblowing, and the retaliation I say followed, have been devastating for my family and me. Follow me here on X and on LinkedIn. I intend to share more of the evidence and the story behind what happened.”

… Not anymore.

… Politico: “Democrats’ top Senate super PAC is flooding the airwaves with ads hitting Republicans on Jeffrey Epstein, the late financier and convicted sex offender. They have data to back it up.

… Internal polling of over 4,500 voters from Senate Majority PAC found that a 44% plurality of voters - including the same percentage of swing voters - think the Epstein issue is “serious” and that Republicans should be held responsible. And while nothing trumps affordability as the issue du jour on the campaign trail this fall, state-level research found that the Epstein ads can shift races 3-6 points in Dems’ direction.”

… One ad from the group against Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK), who received a $8,500 donation from billionaire Henry Kravis, whose name appears in the Epstein files:

• “Sullivan took thousands in cash from Epstein Associates, and voted to keep the files hidden from the public. Even after he knew 14 year old girls were raped.”

… Sorry this has started out rather dark. Sign of the times. I never promised you a rose garden.

… Fox asked RNC Chair Joe Gruters if it is true that the GOP has given up on the NC senate race by pulling all their ads: “Michael Whatley still has a path and we’re helping him other ways. We have no other option - we’re gonna make sure we make the best spending decisions.”

… The latest NYT/Siena poll has the KS senate race now tied with Sen. Roger Marshall and Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton each at 45%.

… CNN pollster Harry Enten:

• “KS hasn’t sent a Democrat to the senate since 1932. What is going on? Trump is historically unpopular for a Republican president in KS. I would say Trump is probably at this point in his term the least popular Republican president since Herbert Hoover.”

• “Another factor is Hamilton is popular. He has the highest net favorable rating of any of the senate candidates in key states. Voters in KS say they like him more than the average Democrat.”

… Aggravated Trump took questions today from reporters outside the WH:

• Q: “Your approval with Latino voters has dropped— Trump: You're fake news. You're CNN. You're fake news. My poll numbers are great! Your whole outfit is fake and so are you!”

• Q: “Corinne Machado wrote an OpEd today in the NY Post saying that she should go back to Venezuela. Do you support that? Trump: Well, I say one thing, she's a very fine woman. She gave me her Nobel Prize because she knew I earned it.”

… The answer is no. He couldn’t care less about her or her country. He just wants to plunder their natural resources. As we said from day one, despite delusional or dishonest Republicans claiming he was going to “liberate” the people and hold elections.

• Q: “Why are you telling your supporters to vote by mail if you think it's fraud?
  Trump: There is a lot of cheating in vote by mail. Q: Where? Trump: CA. Q: There is no evidence in CA. Trump: No evidence? You are fake news!”

… AP: “Barack Obama will campaign alongside MI Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed in Detroit later this month, lending his support to the progressive nominee after a bruising Democratic primary exposed divisions within the party. Obama will appear with El-Sayed at an Oct. 24 rally that will also feature other top Democratic candidates in MI, including Jocelyn Benson, the party’s nominee for governor.

… Obama is getting significantly more involved in the midterm elections, with additional campaign stops and ads expected to come in the closing weeks. The Detroit event is a notable show of support for El-Sayed. The open seat is expected to be among a handful that will decide which party controls the majority next year.

… Obama taped two dozen ads last week for Democratic candidates for governor and Senate that will be released in the coming days and weeks, in addition to more campaign stops soon to be announced. This week, he will headline a Washington fundraiser supporting Democratic Senate candidates.”

… El-Sayed appeared on Fox for the second time and hit another home run:

• Q - “Does it disturb you to hear this growing movement of democratic socialists in the US who think it is the govt's job to make sure you live a dignified life? El-Sayed: I assume you went to good public school. And you get to drive on good roadways or wish the roads are good? When you put your garbage out, someone picks it up?”

• Asked again about his connection to podcaster Hasan Piker: “The reason I have a conversation with him is the same reason I have a conversation with you. Because I want to talk to the folks out here in your audience. Do you think you are better off now after two years of Trump?”

• “What we have right now is we keep offering more and more opportunities for money-making for the people who have already made it, rather than making sure that everybody else can play, too. Good schools, good health care, right, good opportunity—that’s what we’re after.”

• “There is this argument you’re trying to make which is the best way to take this problem on with Iran is just more war. How has that worked out for us? Has that made us safer? We had a war in Afghanistan and Iraq was next door. We were like, let’s go to war there too. Folks sitting here in these chairs were justifying that. Host: I'm not arguing we need more war. El-Sayed: You haven’t told me where you stand on the war with Iran. You seem to be a fan of it. Host: I’m interviewing you.”

• Q - “I understand thinking that some people have too much money. We are engine of the world for these things and people end up being billionaires as a result. El-Sayed: The issue is not that some people have too much money. It’s that the engine that created their opportunity to make money is being underfunded.”

• Q - “You said you wanted to choke them out. El-Sayed: I don't want to choke anyone out. I want to make sure everyone can breathe. Right now, you have an economy where people are getting choked out because they don’t have the basic means for a dignified life because we are more focused on allowing a billionaire to make another billion.”

… Fox digital editor Acyn: “El-Sayed is one of the most skilled candidates I have ever clipped. This is the second time he’s appeared on Fox and held his own. There’s always something new in every interview. I’ve also seen a few of the Fox interviews with Mike Rogers. I’ll just say, you aren’t going to get the same level of debate during a Hannity Softball Session.”

… Rep. AOC and NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani are headlining a major fundraiser for MI senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed in NYC.

… DCCC added 6 new candidates to its Red to Blue program, meaning they will now receiving priority funding from the national PACs. Republicans in parenthesis, Democratic nominees after:

AR-02 (Hill): Chris Jones
CO-03 (Hurd): Dwayne Romero
FL-27 (Salazar): Eliott Rodriguez
NV-02 (open): Teresa Benitez-Thompson
NY-21 (open): Blake Gendebien
TN-09 (open): Justin Pearson

… Politico: Ken Paxton is less than a month out from the conclusion of a DC-outsider campaign for a Texas US Senate seat that he privately admitted is being run by Washington. Politico obtained audio of a small fundraising meeting Paxton had with donors last month:

• “I’ve never been in a race where I felt less control over the campaign and, like, what issues are going to matter because it’s all coming - you know - from DC. I don’t control message or what we’re doing.”

• Paxton was asked this by one of the donors present: “Texas is a big state, and some of these issues obviously resonate with real people back home. I know you need money from DC to get the message out and stuff, but how does this stuff translate?”

• Paxton replied: “I miss the days when I could go to, get around with all the people. But we have 32 million people. But then it comes down to your messaging, which in a federal race comes from other people a lot of times, which you don’t control.”

… One attendee said that Paxton never explicitly said he was referring to Trump’s team controlling his campaign, but “everybody knew what he was talking about.”

Thank you again for all the great questions for Ask the Editor. It continues to get more difficult for me to choose just 5. The show will be posted shortly after this Bulletin. These were the ones I chose to answer this week:

• What’s the most effective thing can we do in the last 30 days to make the most difference in the midterms?

• Since Lukoil in Russia is on the sanctions list, could Witkoff and Kushner be prosecuted in the future for proposing business deals with them?

• Is Fox actually trying to help Republicans by not airing Trump’s campaign rallies or talking about them much?

• Where is Trump getting the money for these $500 ACA refund checks and is it legal?

• What can Dems do over the next two years to shore up laws to reign in the power of the presidency and do they have anything planned specific in the House and Senate to further investigate the Epstein files?

We usually make the first third of these Bulletins available to free subscribers, but are making all of them free for everyone until the midterms. If you missed yesterday’s Bulletin recapping the weekend, you can find it here. Thank you to all who read, watch, listen, comment and subscribe!

… The Intercept: “The US Army announced last year that it had enough of a specific model of armored vehicle and that any more deliveries would be ‘excess.’ But even so, Congress found a way to keep funding alive for the vehicle - and executives at the company that produces the vehicle found a way to flood key members of Congress with campaign donations.

… In the weeks after this year’s appropriations bill passed, employees of AM General or its parent company donated tens of thousands to key appropriations committee members in both chambers, Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA).

… Collins is separately facing scrutiny over a report from ProPublica that the FBI investigated an alleged pay-to-play scheme involving a major donor, an ex-defense contractor. Collins’ office denied that there was any kind of pay-to-play arrangement and said she fully cooperated with the FBI.

… There is no indication that AM General’s donations were part of such a scheme, but the giving nonetheless demonstrates how Collins’s campaign account has grown with help from employees at defense contractors doing business with the govt.

… Before the Army put the future of the vehicle in jeopardy, Collins was not a frequent beneficiary of contributions from the company’s workers. But after the Army’s “excess” announcement last year, employees and the company’s PAC donated over $58,000 to committees associated with Collins.”

… Politico: “David Jolly said he ‘can get outspent by $100 million and win this race.’ The FL Democrat may well have to test that argument. He is confronting the same daunting predicament as other gubernatorial candidates around the country: Democrats are poised to enjoy their best midterm election in two decades, but they may fall short in a series of governors’ races because of the party’s warped donor culture.

… Major Democratic contributors and small-dollar givers are flooding Senate hopefuls with cash, but in some of the most politically crucial states they could lose winnable gubernatorial races because they’re being so dramatically outspent by Republican nominees and their allied groups.

… In former and future presidential battlegrounds FL, TX, OH, GA, WI and NV, the gubernatorial advertising gap is yawning. For the remainder of the campaign, Republicans are on track to outspend Democrats on television about 6-to-1 in FL, more than 3-to-1 in TX, 2.5-to-1 in GA, more than 2-to-1 in WI, and only slightly more narrowly in OH and NV.

… The public and private polling in these contests shows they’re competitive, and GOP strategists tell me that, were it not for their financial advantage, they’d lose most of them. The Dem Gov’s Assn, with finite resources and 36 statehouse races on the ballot this year, is not on the air in FL or TX a month before the election.”

… Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) was asked on CNBC about people voting against Republicans because of gas prices: “I don’t like high gas prices, but I don’t want to be killed by a nuclear weapon.”

… So we needed to start another war in Middle East because of a fictitious claim that a country possessed a weapon of mass destruction? At least we’ve never made that mistake before.

… Retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) went on 60 Minutes to explain why he decided not to run again and promote his new book:

• On Republicans not speaking out: “They don’t want to bear the weight of the president. I get that. You’re up for re-election? He’ll target you in a primary. You know what all martyrs have in common? They’re dead.”

• “I think because we’ve been such a successful democracy for so long, it’s hard for the American people to understand how quickly we can lose it all.”

• “I think Noem and Hegseth are probably the poster children for men and women who should never have the authority they’ve been granted.”

… Tillis voted to confirm both Noem and Hegseth. In his book, Tillis calls his vote for Hegseth his “biggest regret” as a senator.

… CNN: “The WH is refusing to allow Politico on Air Force One on Monday, which means the news org cannot fulfill its press corps pool responsibilities. A Politico spokesperson confirmed that the publication was excluded from the out-of-town travel pool, a small group of reporters who travel with the president on trips.

… News outlets filed a lawsuit on Sept. 21 alleging the ban violates the First and Fifth Amendments. Judge Timothy Kelly sided with the plaintiffs and issued a temporary restraining order requiring the Trump admin to reinstate the journalists’ press badges.

… Since then, however, the WH has repeatedly barred CNN from traveling on Air Force One on days when it has been CNN’s turn to be the TV pool representative. Now, on the day it was Politico’s turn to be the print pool representative, Politico has been barred as well.

… The Trump admin appears to be justifying these new restrictions by saying that access to the WH complex is different than access to tight spaces like Air Force One. The AP has an ongoing lawsuit over this distinction, since Trump tried to ban the wire service from certain spaces last year.

… Monday’s action against Politico will likely be incorporated into the next legal filing by CNN, MS NOW and Politico. Judge Kelly is scheduled to hold a hearing on Thursday over the news outlets’ request for a preliminary injunction.”

… NYT: “The US rushed over the weekend to withdraw all 12 B-1 Air Force bombers from an air base in southern England after commanders received new threats about an Iran-backed plot against the installation. The withdrawal was highly unusual: Such moves are rarely made so quickly from an allied air base in a peacetime country thousands of miles from a combat zone.

… The need to move the bombers out of the base, RAF Fairford, was deemed so urgent that some of the planes and their flight crews left while aerial refueling aircraft were still being scrambled to support their flights to the US. The sudden pullout of the bombers came a week after the British police arrested 5 men who had been traveling last Sunday morning in white vans near the base, which has been used by American bombers in the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.”

… AP: “On a sunny, cloudless morning on March 1, the day after Trump started the war against Iran, Chief Warrant Officer 3 Robert Marzan was coordinating critical Army supplies out of Port Shuaiba in Kuwait. In an instant, a drone crashed through the ceiling and exploded, killing Marzan, who had served in the military for 36 years.

… The force flung soldiers into the air, fragments of sheet metal and glass shards impaling them. The tin roof was peeled back ‘like opening up a sardine can,’ one soldier recalled. 6 soldiers were killed and dozens were injured in the deadliest known strike on US troops since Operation Epic Fury commenced on Feb. 28.

… For many, the attack at Port Shuaiba has receded into memory as the war nears its 8th month. But to those there that day and their families, it showed the cost of a hastily drawn conflict. The planning had apparent flaws, and commanders did not take intelligence reports of the Iranian threat seriously enough, leaving wounded soldiers questioning Army leadership and the military medical system.

… In the aftermath, many of the wounded said that commanders had been warned that the facility, a rectangular building with wooden sides at a working seaport and industrial area south of Kuwait City, was particularly vulnerable to a drone strike. That warning went unheeded, the soldiers say. The wounded also would later say their serious injuries were not treated promptly or adequately in the weeks following the attack.”

… Marzan’s widow, Tina Marzan: “We have the right to know what really happened. If somebody messed up, those people need to be held responsible.”

… The Army completed its investigation of the Port Shuaiba attack in June but has yet to release a report, citing the need to redact sensitive information.

… WSJ: “Oil is pouring out of the Persian Gulf at the fastest rate since the start of the Iran war, even as a recent uptick in attacks threatens the flow. The cost of getting it out is eye-watering: up to $40 million for a multiday trip. For Gulf oil producers, it is worth it. Leaving the oil stranded is still economically worse than taking on the freight cost and selling oil at thinner margins.

… So producers inside the Gulf have turned to hiring very large crude carriers, known as VLCCs, to complete a perilous journey known as a ‘shuttle run.’ Carriers enter the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, load at ports there, exit from the strait, then transfer the oil to another vessel waiting just outside of the waterway.

… These are the new economics of the strait, where a wartime gold rush has pushed producers to swallow record freight costs just to keep crude moving; shipowners are reaping some of the best returns the industry has seen in decades; and the sailors who make the dangerous crossing are being paid like never before. Those financial rewards come with substantial risks. After several days of calm, 7 ships have been hit since Sept. 28.”

… NYT: “Trump recruited a fleet of Fox personalities for his second admin, filling key cabinet positions with the likes of Pete Hegseth, Sean Duffy and Mehmet Oz. Now a homegrown star of the Trump WH is headed to Fox. Karoline Leavitt is joining the Rupert Murdoch-owned channel next month as an on-air contributor. She is expected to provide commentary across numerous Fox shows when she starts on Nov. 1.”

… Politico: “Pete Buttigieg is barnstorming the nation in the final weeks before the midterms, boosting candidates in battlegrounds and even areas traditionally hostile to Democrats. And it’s helping him think beyond Nov. Buttigieg is set to campaign in at least 6 states: NC, VA, NJ, GA, NV, and MI.

… Those relationships with voters and party leaders will be useful if he runs for president in 2028, a question he was repeatedly asked across stops here on Friday and Saturday. The 2026 trail is also an opportunity to refine his campaign message: connecting concrete cost-of-living concerns to the more abstract need for reforming the political system.”

… Buttigieg: “I have a lot of conviction that actually your economic message only has credibility if you have a reform message, too. Because otherwise, what you’re doing is you’re saying things that people agree with, which is great, but they might not believe that you can actually deliver it.”

… “He’s made more than 100 endorsements this cycle, campaigning in person for roughly half of them, and stops in 37 states. He’s been welcomed in places where candidates shunned some potential rivals, including in IA with Rob Sand and Josh Turek, where they’re running for governor and senator.”

… NBC: “Sen. Chuck Schumer is putting Trump on notice: If Democrats win control, they don’t intend to put MAGA judges on the courts. Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) said he doesn’t think a Democratic-led Senate would confirm a Trump pick for the Supreme Court either:

• “Well, given the history of Trump nominees, I think it is slim to none that we would support a nominee from this admin. Because we’ve seen this movie, we know how it ends, which is a politician in robes who is following Trump’s orders on most major questions.”

… Some Democrats say there should be no question of confirming a Trump pick after Sen. Mitch McConnell held a seat open for 10 months under Obama to let a Republican president fill it instead. (Justice Neil Gorsuch ultimately filled that vacancy):

• Sen. Ruben Gallego: “No, we’ve got to do exactly what McConnell did to us. To even the scales.”

… But Gallego said he doesn’t want to see it done like this after Democrats even things out:

• “I don’t think you know you want to go down that road. But clearly you know McConnell and Trump used, I would say, their power, whatever you want to call it, to change the makeup of the courts. And I think we have to start moving it back.”

… Puck reporter Julia Ioffe: How are Witkoff and Kushner's peace efforts going? “Peace is further away than it was a year ago,” said a source close to the Kremlin. “And the occasional trip by Witkoff and Kushner isn’t going to change that.”

… WaPo: “Photographer E. David Luria has spent almost every day of the past 27 years working with clients of his Washington Photo Safari business to help them see and capture DC in its most beautiful light. He teaches them how to frame breathtaking sunrises from the steps of the Lincoln Memorial, capture sweeping vistas of the National Mall from the top of the Washington Monument and shoot the elegant north face of the WH from Lafayette Square.

… Luria, who has shepherded tens of thousands of clients over the years, was hopeful his business might get a boost in 2026 as Washington celebrated America’s 250th anniversary. Instead, it has mostly been a bust. And it isn’t just Luria feeling the pain. Tour guides across the District say their business has cratered this year, in some cases as much as 70% as a number of Washington’s iconic sites are closed, under construction or awaiting repairs.

… Adding to the downturn, guides say, is that many tourists, particularly international visitors, are angered by Trump’s attacks on longtime allies, the imposition of hard-hitting tariffs, and the admin’s visa and immigration policies.

… Luria, who has been a DC resident for 56 years, says his bookings are down 50% this year: “People just aren’t coming. They just don’t want to put up with it.”

… Piers Morgan asked musician Phil Collins on his podcast what his thoughts were on Trump:

• “His whole manner is unattractive. Because historically presidents have been eloquent and elegant, you feel like even if you don’t agree with them, you still respect them. But when somebody like Trump is as nasty as he is, you end up feeling dislike for him. It’s very scary with what’s happening. He plays politics like a businessman and it’s not like really a business at all, it’s diplomacy.”

• “I’ve got a song that’s waiting to be written called ‘Fat People with Guns,’ which is about America. I just wrote that phrase down so I don’t forget it.”