… As I promised months ago, I am ramping up my coverage of the midterms more and more as we get closer to the election. Although there is lots of very important foreign policy news that I am not going to ignore, the elections should dominate the Bulletins over the next few weeks. I am prepared to provide you the most comprehensive coverage possible each day of the key races across the country.
… NYT: “GOP Ad Blitz Targets Senate, Not House. Republicans have an enormous financial edge in this year’s midterms. But with two weeks until the election, it is now clear that their spending advantage is overwhelmingly playing out only in the advertising battle for the Senate - not the House.
… In the 7 Senate races that the Cook Political Report rated as tossups, Republicans are outspending Democrats on advertising by $947 million to $625 million. That is a breathtaking advantage of more than $320 million in the key races that could determine which party wins control of the Senate.”
… Politico: “Republicans are already starting to blame each other as the midterm election spirals further out of their control. Everyone is bracing for Trump’s ire if the party loses big in Nov. House Republicans are planning to accuse the Senate side.
… Trump political aides have taken to directly calling campaigns they feel aren’t performing well enough. National GOP operatives are quietly furious at lackluster candidates who didn’t do enough to prepare for a tough year despite early warnings. And some GOP candidates are pointing the finger back at their own party committees.
… House Republicans are annoyed with Senate Republicans for fumbling a once-safe GOP map as well as creating top-of-the-ticket drag for them with bad candidates in some key states - but senators privately put the onus on Trump for forcing out better Republican incumbents and then backing flawed GOP candidates, including Ken Paxton in TX.
… The top Senate GOP Super PAC and Trump’s MAGA Inc. have spent nearly $200 million alone to save Paxton, who’s locked in a tight race with Democrat James Talarico. There’s also particular frustration with Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS), who numerous GOP operatives grumbled never took his race seriously and is now costing the party millions of dollars to rescue in a state Democrats haven’t won in almost a century.
… A GOP operative working on multiple House races: “No one in the world expected that the Senate would need as much money as they did. All of this money that was expected to go to the House, for the most part, is now being wasted on the Senate because they fucked up so bad.”
… Real Clear Politics: GOP consultants on Sen. John Husted (R-OH):
“Jon Husted looks like a quarterback, he talks like a quarterback, but he acts like a waterboy.”
“When the story is written on this campaign cycle, Sherrod Brown will have run the best race in the country. Jon Husted may have run the worst campaign in the country.”
… Democratic consultant John Anzalone: “That GOP money is bouncing off James Talarico and Adam Hamilton like a soft Fall breeze. And Talarico is single-handedly bankrupting the GOP.”
… NYT’s reporter Shane Goldmacher: “All that Republican money? It’s almost exclusively giving the GOP an edge in Senate TV ad spending - the spend in the House is practically equal. Another way to think of this chart: Republican donors are prioritizing saving the Senate over the House.”
… NYT: “Republicans in OH Are Worried About Turnout. Just two volunteers showed up on a recent weekday at a GOP campaign office near Cleveland that in 2024 was brimming with activity every night. Tanya Karabanovs sat among stacks of untouched yard signs and brainstormed new ways to convince her neighbors to vote for Republican candidates such as Jon Husted. Her most recent idea: stuffing chocolate bars into goodie bags with leftover campaign literature.”
… CNN: “GOP operatives conducting a focus group in a traditionally red Midwestern state this month were taken aback by what they heard from their own party’s voters. Asked what they blamed for rising gas prices, those voters pointed to ‘corrupt politicians’ and ‘billionaires’ - a response that surprised some longtime strategists who’ve never seen govt corruption emerge as a top issue for so many Republican voters in congressional races.
… Those observations in the reliably red farm belt are just one instance of a glaring pattern for Republicans, as their House battlefield expands into places like KY, WI and AR. Republicans involved in House races from TX to NY to FL have privately acknowledged to CNN they’re troubled by flashes of anger particularly from working-class voters with kids, whose gas and grocery prices are skyrocketing.
… One GOP consultant working on congressional races described the theme of corruption as an ‘underappreciated fact’ of this midterm, calling it a ‘two or three issue’ in polling even in reliably red seats this cycle.
… There are fears that Republicans could see a washout in parts of the country that are suffering the most from high fuel and grocery prices - where they worry many blue-collar workers are feeling ignored by the president who has focused much of his time on building a ballroom.”
… New University of Houston poll on Texas statewide races:
US Senate
🟦James Talarico 48%
🟥Ken Paxton 46%
🟨Ted Brown 3%
——
Texas Governor
🟥Greg Abbott 49% (incumbent)
🟦Gina Hinojosa 46%
🟨Pat Dixon 2%
… New National Public Affairs poll on Iowa statewide races:
US Senate
🟥Ashley Hinson 47%
🟦Josh Turek 44%
🟨Thomas Laehn 4%
——
Iowa Governor
🟦Rob Sand 50%
🟥Zach Lahn 45%
New Trafalgar poll on US Senate in SC:
🟥Darline Graham 48.6%
🟦Annie Andrews 45.6%
… WaPo: “Cypress, TX: There’s something missing in this conservative Houston suburb on the eve of early voting next Monday: Visible support for Republicans, particularly the embattled Senate candidate.
… In the sprawling Bridgeland subdivision, yard signs appear to favor Democratic state Rep. James Talarico over his rival, Ken Paxton. The signage gap matches recent polling, which shows Talarico, a 4-term state rep, either tied or several points ahead of Paxton, who has never lost an election in 25 years.
… Nowhere is that more clear than on Bridgeland’s Inspiration Drive, where voters on both sides of the political aisle say that Paxton, dogged by corruption scandals and accusations of infidelity, has lost support from a crucial segment of the electorate: suburban women.”
… Maria Kostecka, a retired preschool teacher, said female friends and neighbors have approached her expressing enthusiasm for Talarico, especially after she posted his campaign yard sign: “I start to feel like it’s this secret underground club who don’t want Paxton in office.”
… Politico: “As he weighs a presidential campaign, Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) is putting the finishing touches on one of the potential 2028 field’s best midterm scorecards: Kelly has backed 74 candidates and campaigned in 16 states, all while laying down $14.1 million for Democrats this cycle.
… Now, his midterm mission will take him to stops across 5 states, including the early Democratic nominating states NV, NM and NH. He’ll also hit ME, where he’ll stump for Democratic Senate nominee Troy Jackson, and his home state, where tomorrow he’ll stump alongside 18 endorsed state legislative candidates.”
… Punchbowl: “House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar has raised and donated a total of $40 million for House Democrats, Democratic candidates and the Democratic Party in the 2026 cycle. Aguilar’s fundraising represents a $10 million increase over the $30 million he chipped in during the 2024 cycle.
… Aguilar is expected to become majority whip next year if Democrats win the House. Being the House’s top vote counter would represent a big step up for the 47-year-old CA Democrat, who’s the youngest member of the House Democratic leadership trio.
… Over the past 6 months, Aguilar has traveled to nearly 50 districts across 16 states - Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia and Washington.
… The #3 House Democrat has held 44 events in that time span to benefit the DCCC, House Majority PAC, House Democrats and Democratic candidates. In the final sprint to Election Day, Aguilar is slated to participate in 20 more events to support candidates in a further 16 competitive House seats.”
… Punchbowl: “Trump will be on the road this week in KS, IA, NC, SC and FL – which all feature Senate contests. But notice the throughline here: every single one of these stops comes in safe Republican House districts. This means (mostly) Trump-friendly crowds.”
… Semafor: “Control of the US Senate for the next two years could come down to how much the news media chooses to focus in the final weeks of the midterms on a tweet sent years ago by the younger half-sister of Michigan’s Democratic Senate candidate.
… In 2012, Abdul El-Sayed’s half-sister, Eman Abdelhadi, described ‘an amazing talk with my mom about her activism in the Muslim Brotherhood during the early ’70s.’ Republicans and members of the media have since pressed El-Sayed to answer whether he has ties to the Islamist movement.
… The subject is of particular interest at CBS News, where Editor-in-Chief Bari Weiss has repeatedly encouraged the network’s journalists to dedicate serious resources to finding a potential link. In recent weeks, Weiss has personally advocated for CBS News journalists to pursue numerous story angles related to El-Sayed’s supposed sympathy towards the Muslim Brotherhood.
… She has discussed the topic on editorial calls, and tasked CBS News’ investigative unit with combing through El-Sayed’s background for a potential link to the org. The network’s investigative team is set to publish a story in the coming days on the subject.
… The politics of the Middle East and the conflict in Israel and Gaza remain red-hot inside the company, as a network leader with strong views on the region’s dynamics has attempted to shape its coverage of stories touching its spiraling conflicts. Rank-and-file staff have clashed with editors installed by Weiss over Gaza, leaking embarrassing internal network discussions about coverage.
… Weiss has taken a particularly hands-on approach to the MI Senate race, where campaign rhetoric has revolved around El-Sayed’s Muslim faith, and whether he can win over Jewish voters in the state. Last month Weiss faced criticism internally for overseeing an article that critics say falsely insinuated Abdul El-Sayed had ties to the 9/11 attacks.”
We have to record Ask the Editor tomorrow because I had a doctor’s appointment this morning that was an hour away, so I just barely had enough time to get this done today. Just a routine appointment but closest VA is pretty far. Sorry for the delay.
We make all our content available to free subscribers from now until election day. Normally about the first third of these are available for free subscribers. Lots of big election news over the next 3 weeks, so thanks to everyone keeping up with it here.
If you missed yesterday’s somewhat sprawling Bulletin recapping a busy weekend, you can find it here.
… Trump and Netanyahu held a campaign call on speaker phone where Trump endorsed the Israeli PM in his reelection, who released video of the call on social media:
Trump: “You’re a great warrior, and we will prove that very soon. I think you’re going to have a tremendous victory. You’re the man I want by my side, Bibi.
Netanyahu: “Donald, we have a job to finish. We will finish it together. We will finish it.”
… Trump posted on Truth Social: “To the Great People of Israel: Bibi Netanyahu has been a Great Warrior PM, and an even greater Partner for Peace in combatting Iran. Unless they change their ways, rapidly, we will soon finish the job. If Israel has the wrong Leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi, America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so. Please let this Letter serve to represent my Complete and Total Endorsement of Bibi Netanyahu in his upcoming Race for Re-Election as PM of Israel.”
… Israel-based Iran specialist Danny Citrinowicz:
“I may be reading too much into this statement, and I certainly hope I am wrong. But it is hard not to interpret it as suggesting that Netanyahu promised Trump another joint military operation against Iran in exchange for his political support.
Netanyahu may have effectively committed Israel to another war with Iran to secure his political future, regardless of the potential consequences. If that is