… 4 days out from the crucial midterms as prognosticators continue to shift races almost daily towards the Democratic column while Trump decides to cancel his remaining rallies before reversing himself 24 hours later to head back out on the road Sunday in KS and IA.
… AP: “Trump has rescheduled weekend campaign rallies in a pair of critical Midwestern states that he had previously canceled. The Republican president will now visit IA and KS for back-to-back campaign rallies on Sunday. The RNC initially said in canceling the rallies that Trump would do telerallies instead to reach more voters.
… The scheduling whiplash underscored the chaotic and shifting nature of the final days of the midterm campaigns, in which Trump and Republicans are scrambling to retain their majorities in Congress in an election that has turned largely on affordability issues and the president’s favorability.”
… Politico: “Republicans are bracing for a brutal election night, convinced they’re set to face some previously unthinkable losses in deep-red Trump territory as key battleground races hang on a knife’s edge. House Republicans are privately discussing not just if they’ll lose their majority, but by how many seats.
… Imperiled GOP incumbents in once safe districts have been begging party leaders for more money in the final few days to stem the bleeding. Senate Republicans have found new cause to worry about contests in OH, KS and other red states.
… Some Republican incumbents made an eyebrow-raising emergency decision. They stopped doing their own polling weeks ago as they tried to save every dollar for swaying voters as they begged for the GOP cavalry to arrive from Trump’s political operation to the NRCC.
… One Republican strategist working on midterm races simply responded to a question about the environment with a video of a dumpster on fire that was being swept away by flood waters.
… Top GOP officials and lawmakers have long known the political landscape would be bad, amid voter anger over the cost of living and aspects of Trump’s policy agenda. But they’re facing a worse position than they expected earlier this year, with less than one week until Election Day.”
… A senior Republican: “It could be quite a brutal evening. Once the dominoes start falling it becomes hard to stop them.”
… Cook Political: “As the House battleground map has expanded, Democrats now have the potential to win their largest majority since 2009. Trump’s approval rating is underwater even in deep red seats that he won comfortably in 2024, and heavy spending from Republicans doesn’t appear to be moving the needle.
… While Democrats won’t reach the 257 seats they had following Barack Obama’s election - a high water mark for them this century - they could surpass the majorities they had following the 2006 and 2018 blue wave cycles. We’re now projecting that Democrats will flip 12-25 seats, giving them as many as 240 seats in the House.
… Under the updated ratings, if Democrats win the seats they’re favored in, along with all 18 Toss Ups, they would have 240 seats. If the bottom completely falls out for Republicans, Dems could flip some seats in the Lean Republican and Likely Republican columns as well. Republicans are particularly concerned about turnout.”
… Cook Political Report ratings change. US House 2026:
Colorado-05: Lean R —> Toss-up
Pennsylvania-01: Lean R —> Toss-up
South Carolina-01: Lean R —> Toss-up
——
Florida-07: Likely R —> Lean R
Florida-09: Likely R —> Lean R
Indiana-05: Likely R —> Lean R
——
Ohio-09: Toss-up —> Lean D
Pennsylvania-08: Toss-up —> Lean D
——
North Carolina-05: Safe R —> Likely R
North Carolina-09: Safe R —> Likely R
New Jersey-02: Safe R —> Likely R
Washington-05: Safe R —> Likely R
… Sen. Ted Cruz in a radio interview: Q - “What is your gut about where we are in these closing days? Cruz: I am deeply, deeply worried. What we are seeing around the country right now is massive, massive Democrat turnout. Democrats are showing up and they’re energized. If the election were over today and just the early votes were counted, Republicans would lose massively. It would be a bloodbath.”
… WSJ: “State election officials and the Trump admin are eyeing one another with extreme suspicion ahead of Tues’s midterms, after months of hostile interactions over the procedures for how Americans vote. Before the first ballots have been counted, the federal govt is already initiating litigation contesting the results.
… In CA, DOJ is pressing forward with its third attempt in recent days to force the state to set aside up to 20,000 ballots returned by people the admin says are ‘likely noncitizens.’ And on Thursday, top federal prosecutors sent subpoenas to state and local officials as part of a criminal probe into allegations of illegal voting.
… DOJ is also escalating its legal battle in AK, where it wants the courts to block the certification of a key Senate race if the Republican loses. And it has pledged to sue Washington state if officials there don’t agree to take steps to prevent ballots from voters the administration says aren’t citizens.
… Across the country, state officials of both parties have been bracing for their electoral processes to come under a microscope, and their contingency planning has reached new heights. Ml AG Dana Nessel said lawyers from her dept have drafted briefs ‘for virtually every set of circumstances we could think of, except the zombie apocalypse. If I was a betting woman, I would bet with my entire 401(k) that he’s going to try to interfere in MI.’
… MD’s state elections administrator said he ran a simulation earlier this year preparing for his own arrest. Jared DeMarinis met with 70 officials from around the state for contingency planning, and he asked them to consider what would happen if he is detained on Election Day.”
… DeMarinis: “Who would represent me in my official capacity for being arrested? How do I get bail? This is not like your normal daily occurrence about your job. But this election there is a possibility.”
… USA Today: “Josh Zygielbaum bristles at the idea that anyone would cheat in the election he’s overseeing. As Adams County’s elected clerk and recorder near Denver, Zygielbaum leads a small army of election workers managing the midterm election for about 554,000 residents. A retired US Marine, Zygielbaum takes his oaths seriously: to protect and defend the US and CO constitutions.
… That’s why the federal govt’s decision to dispatch about 1,000 DOJ officials to polling places in every state, including the ones Zygielbaum oversees, somehow feels wrong to him. Though DOJ hasn't yet provided a full list of locations, Zygielbaum and some of the other county clerks who have been told to expect them note they are in liberal-leaning areas with large Hispanic populations.”
… WaPo: “Pope Leo XIV cast a mail-in ballot in the US midterm elections, the Vatican confirmed Friday, making the Chicago-born pontiff the first leader of the Catholic Church to vote in the US. The Vatican did not say how he voted.”
… Journalist Marisa Kabas tracked down Tom Hoyle, who went mega-viral yesterday after a clip of his live interview on Fox at the SC Trump rally was posted on social media:
“Tom Hoyle knew he had a chiropractor appointment, and when he remembered the office was halfway between his home in Charlotte, NC and Trump’s rally in Rock Hill, SC, he figured he might as well attend. He planned to make some good trouble at the event, but he never expected a Fox reporter would hand him a microphone.
The reporter asked him ‘Why are you here this morning?’ Hoyle replied, ‘Well, in the late ‘70s, I was a little too young to get involved and go to South America for the Jonestown Massacre. But this is as close as I’ll ever get, so that’s why I’m here.’ Confused, the reporter says ‘Wait, the Jonestown Massacre? Hoyle fired back, “That’s right. There’s nothing like seeing a cult right up front.”
Kabas: “So this is just your nature? It is very much. People will tell you I’ve always been a loud mouth, and I’m such an anti-bully. I become a bully with bullies. So maybe Gandhi wouldn’t approve, but, you know, maybe Malcolm X would.”
Q - “Are you affiliated with any political party? Hoyle: I was a registered Republican for decades, but just about a year and a half ago, I re-registered as an Independent. I don’t want the stain of what used to be the Republican Party on me anymore. There is no Republican Party. It’s just MAGA, and they’re dead.”
… I love this guy.
Q - “Going into the event today, did you know what you were going to say if you got the chance ahead of time, or was that off the cuff? Hoyle: No, that was off the cuff. The gentleman from Fox walked up to me when I was in there, for some bizarre reason. And I said well, I’m not going to be vulgar on TV. It’s not the place. I just said, I’ll just say something about it being a cult, and then the rest of it just flowed.
Q - “Is Jonestown a comparison you’ve thought about before? Hoyle: Absolutely. I knew about Jonestown somewhat, just like I told that story, in the late 70s. I was about 10-years-old. It’s very microcosmic of this whole thing with Trump. He’s got a cult and he’s a cheapskate and he’s a crook. So I’ve seen memes before like, the difference between Jim Jones and Trump is that Trump would charge you for the Kool-Aid before you died.
But yeah, I’ve thought about that quite a bit at how cults are crazy, and that’s what MAGA is—a cult. Trump can take a whiz down their neck and they say, ‘No, I don’t know what you’re talking about. That’s rain.’”
… Legend.
… SC Democratic nominee for senate Annie Andrews was interviewed on Fox by Bret Baier:
Q - “Darlene Graham says that you have earned more money from a gun control group than you have as a pediatrician. Andrews: I’m a board-certified pediatrician and have taken care of children for 20 years. I’m also proud of the work I did in the gun violence prevention space.
My role at Everytown was actually to develop a program to educate medical students on how to talk to parents about the importance of secure firearm storage. As a pediatrician I’ve cared for young toddlers who have found unsecure loaded firearms in their homes and unintentionally shot themselves. It really only took one of those tragedies to compel me to want to do something.”
Q - “You have these mailers that say, ‘No PAC money, not a dime.’ But you took money from abortion rights groups, gun control and environmental groups. Andrews: Yes, I’m really proud to not take any corporate PAC money unlike my opponent who’s taken $27 million in corporate PAC money. My average donation is $30. Darlene has not raised very much money on her own so she’s being propped up by data center and insurance PACs.”
Q - “What’s your number one priority if you win? Andrews: As a physician, Medicaid is the backbone of children’s healthcare here in SC. I look forward to working with Sen. Tim Scott on that issue. If these budget cuts go through, rural hospitals will close, and tens of thousands of S. Carolinians will lose their insurance.”
… What a contrast between Dr. Andrews and Darlene Graham, who knows absolutely nothing about being a competent US senator and can’t answer a single policy question coherently.
There is no Bulletin tomorrow because I’m off Saturdays. Next one will be out on Sunday night recapping the last weekend in politics before the big midterms.
Big day tomorrow as the street in our historic Maine neighborhood is closed at 4:00 for the night as 600+ trick or treaters from around the area descend upon us. My two daughters flew up here from FL to help us out. Our yard, as well as those of our neighbors, are looking pretty crazy. We will have a fire pit going since the forecast is 45 degrees.
If you missed yesterday’s Bulletin, you can find it here.
… AP: “Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola denied that she knew anything about an effort to put another candidate on the AK ballot with the same name as the Republican incumbent as DOJ escalated a criminal investigation with new grand jury subpoenas.”
… Peltola at a speech in Juneau: “I just want to clear the air. I knew nothing about any