… On the eve of the midterms before any results are in, Republicans are already grumbling to reporters that Trump screwed them in this election.
… Politico: Republicans are already privately blaming Trump as they brace for losses on Tuesday. Even as they race to distance themselves from his actions on tariffs, the unpopular Iran war and his mass deportation agenda, few have been willing to criticize him publicly - a clear sign of just how powerful Trump’s grip remains on the GOP.
… But interviews with roughly a dozen candidates, campaign officials and lawmakers reveal they’re acutely aware of who, exactly, put them on the back foot this entire cycle.
… One House Republican: “There was a point earlier this year where we really felt like we could defy history. And then Trump bombed Iran. And it was just one thing after another.”
… T.W. Arrighi, a Republican strategist working on the SC Senate race and others, said sarcastically: “I think Jon Husted’s ass and Nicki Minaj’s is a great closing message. You’ve got to take the good with the bad with Trump, unless you want to drive yourself crazy every day. The buck stops with him. His approval ratings aren’t great.”
… Another House Republican: “At least when Barack Obama was president, he only screwed his enemies, never his friends.”
… Semafor: How Trump put the Senate in play:
Picked JD Vance as his running mate, opening up tough expensive special election that GOP could lose. DeWine appointed Husted, who originally wanted to run for governor. Close race that wouldn’t have been up til ‘28 otherwise.
Tangled with Tillis over healthcare cuts in 2025, prompting his retirement. Thune said then Tillis “knew how to run and win in NC.” Trump cleared field for Whatley, who is down by large margin.
Cold-shouldered Cornyn then backed Paxton. Cornyn: “TX was an unforced error, I think, on the part of the president. If I won the nomination, then that would be a layup in Nov. That’s all off the table.”
Backed Sen. Darline Graham in crowded SC race, most senators thought she’d be an interim senator. Now in toss-up race against Annie Andrews with state GOP divided. Andrews: “Darline was going to be easier for me.”
Tried to oust Kemp in ‘22; when Georgia race came up this cycle, Kemp passed on the race. Trump backed Rep. Mike Collins over Kemp’s pick Dooley, now huge underdog to Sen. Ossoff.
Tariffs, filibuster pressure and of course, the Iran War. A GOP consultant: “Every negative for the GOP this cycle is a downstream effect of Iran.”
… Axios: “Republicans are burning tens of millions of last-minute ad dollars to try to rescue 3 red-state senators who they say ignored months of warnings that their campaigns were in danger. Senate races in KS, SC and MS are normally GOP layups. This year, Republicans have diverted resources from swing-state battles to defend them.
… The frustration with Sens. Roger Marshall, Darline Graham and Cindy Hyde-Smith comes amid broader GOP finger-pointing as polls show a nationwide backlash against Trump. National Republicans have spent $33 million in KS, $21 million in SC and $2.4 million in MS.
… A national GOP operative involved in several key senate races: “Democrats may win these seats in a wave, but not a blue wave. It’s the wave of arrogance and laziness that washed over these GOP incumbents and made them think they were invincible.”
… Republicans say the 3 senators ignored warnings to raise more money and build stronger campaign operations. Trump’s political operation also warned Senate Republicans that they would need to pull their own weight. The most complaints center on Marshall, who has raised just $7.5 million compared with $19 million for his Democratic opponent, Adam Hamilton.
… Republicans describe Marshall’s campaign as overconfident. About a month ago, his team told aides to other GOP senators that the race would be effectively over within 10 days once it released opposition research on Hamilton. It wasn’t.”
… Marshall continued to try and contain the damage from the story about him suing is OB/GYN patients for unpaid bills, which caused some of them to be arrested. He made his final ad of the campaign about the issue over the advice of his consultants who told him to stop calling attention to it:
“We occasionally handed some of those accounts over to a collection agency, just like nearly every private medical practice does. My involvement in any patients’ accounts ended when I turned it over to an outside agency.”
… Jeez. He’s blaming the collection agency. Who he retained. Not sure this is helping.
… Then he went on Fox:
Q: “Why was it so important to you to get that response out and did your campaign disagree that that was a good idea? Marshall: We certainly have had disagreements. This was a shot at my reputation.”
… Dave Wasserman with Cook Political:
“Lots of fancy TX early vote analyses out there, but here’s a simple fact: In the 23 counties that voted for any statewide federal Dem this decade, early votes cast are at 91% of ‘24 levels. In the other 231 all-GOP counties, early votes cast are at just 79% of ‘24 levels.
In fact, two large 90%+ Hispanic counties, Hidalgo and Webb have already surpassed their early vote totals from 2024, pretty remarkable for a midterm. Meanwhile, the reddest large TX county, Montgomery, is at just 77% of its 2024 EV turnout.
What does that mean? There’s an undeniable Dem enthusiasm advantage, which we already knew. Paxton and Republicans are going to need a huge election day vote to overcome what Talarico’s already banked.
Keep in mind: Even though only 23 TX counties have voted for a statewide federal Dem since ‘20, those counties account for 55% of TX’s registered voters. The two Republican counties Talarico needs to flip: Collin and Denton, are home to another 8% of TX’s voters.”
… Latino voter consultant Mike Madrid: “The highest midterm Latino turnout in history was 2018. Trump’s first midterm. It was also the most anti-Republican ever. The 2026 midterms will likely surpass that as the highest Latino turnout ever - driven by low propensity, rural, non-college Latino voters. Don’t ever let them tell you Trump can’t turn out voters.”
… Pollster Nate Silver: “The thing is, at this point, Dems can absorb a modest-sized polling error and win the Senate. Not a large one. But they have leads of >=3.0 points in states totaling 5 flips, plus in all their own seats.”
… JD Vance on the tarmac heading to a campaign event:
Q - “Your approval rating is currently underwater. Vance: I don't think too much about that stuff. That's all based on polling that we've found a number of times in the past have been untrue.”
… VoteHub:
“Based on historical reporting patterns, we expect MI’s final 15% of votes tomorrow to come largely from Democratic areas and heavily favor Abdul El-Sayed. If those patterns hold, Mike Rogers could lead by 2.8 points at 12:54 AM in a race that ultimately finishes tied.
In OH, we expect an early blue mirage as absentee votes are reported, followed by a smaller red mirage later in the night, before outstanding votes from major cities shift the count toward Sherrod Brown after midnight.
Maine counts by town, rather than vote method, and releases votes extremely slowly. Fewer than half of votes may be in by midnight, with roughly 20% left after Election Night. Missing rural towns are likely to help Collins gain ground later, especially after Election Night, so early Jackson leads may overstate his final performance.”
… Bruce Mehlman compiled this guide to help political fanatics like us keep up with what’s happening on election day:
… Politico’s Jonathan Martin: “Bill Clinton is expecting a big night for Democrats and compared this midterm to his own favorite, 1998. His party made sweeping gains that year in the South thanks to strong Black turnout and won races there they’ve not prevailed in ever since. He also had some advice for how his party should interpret their success this week: use the results to start rebuilding the battered Democratic brand.
“If we have a good election, and I think we will, we have to realize that that’s the opportunity to establish trust not the ability to take it for granted.”
“Democrats have gotten smarter in much of the country in the people they’re recruiting and the campaigns they’re running and we’re actually reaching out to people.”
He singled out senate nominee Adam Hamilton: “This preacher in KS. The fact that he agreed to do this is amazing. And he could win. Even if he doesn’t, he will change the politics of KS.”
As important is how Republicans respond to a thorough defeat. Clinton pointed out that House GOP members who survive will likely hail from deep-red districts and will be less inclined to break from Trump because “their next election is the primary of 2028.”
On whether Republicans will break with Trump after losses: “It’s going to have to be a thumper. Politicians never change unless the voters change them.”
… RNC Chair Joe Gruters was asked on NewsNation about Trump saying to rally attendees that if he gives them $5,000 that will only buy them a hamburger at Mar-a-Lago: “I’ve talked to the president about this and he definitely has empathy for people. He’s been focusing on the American worker from day one.”
… Trump’s final event before the midterms was a speech in front of the Reflecting Pool in DC celebrating himself for the job he did on the remodel:
“We are giving serious thought to changing the name to the Trump Reflecting Pool.”
“The vandals went to work, but we also went to work on the vandals.”
… He’s the Dirty Harry of Reflecting Pools.
“There was great vandalism with slashing. We have pictures of it. Jesse Watters did a whole long piece on it. It was sad to watch because the vandals really went to town.”
… Greatest closing argument for a midterm ever.
“It’s not an easy thing. The algae forms easily, but I don’t think you’ll see this now. Under the Biden and Obama admins, algae took over the entire pool.” He then held up a photo.
“The Triumphal Arc Military Complex will tremendous drone capability, shooter capability—it’s right in the middle of everything. It’s important for our military.”
… Yes, he always says “Arc” not “Arch.”
“We’re building the National Garden of American Heroes. 250 to 500 great American heroes in statue form done by the greatest artists in the world. Next to that, we’re doing the golf course.”
“We’re going to be doing a promenade. It’s basically a walkway. We call it a promenade. It’s a great architectural concept. You’ll be able to walk.”
… What a time to be alive covering politics in America.
… WaPo: “For 11 years, Trump’s raucous rallies have offered a signature spectacle to a political movement that remade the Republican Party and then the country. As Election Day approached, Trump appeared to be contemplating the end of an era. ‘I’m closing it down tonight,’ Trump said Sunday as he opened his final rally in Salina, KS. ‘This is it.’
… With 30 events in 32 days, Trump’s rallies in this midterm campaign have underscored his enduring dominance of the Republican Party and his determination to make himself the center of the election debate.”
… VoteHub: Democrats’ stronger turnout among lower-propensity voters gives David Jolly a fighting chance tomorrow in the FL governor’s race against Republican Byron Donalds. Final Florida In-Person Early Voting:
🔴 Republicans: 1,495,880
🔵 Democrats: 1,206,968
⚪ Other/NPA: 758,006
Cumulative GOP Margin:
2024: R+19.4
2026: R+8.3
There is no Ask the Editor this week because I’m working on the midterms around the clock since 4 AM yesterday. (I have the 4:21 AM social media post to prove it). I am going to get tomorrow’s election day Bulletin out early at 4 PM ET so everyone will have a good primer before the polls close. I will just have to start at 5 AM instead of 6 AM to make it happen.
Obviously, I will be glued to the election results just like you from that point forward. I may also jump on some live podcasts. Of course, I want wins everywhere. But I want those senate seats in TX, ME and KS more than anything else. Give me 2 out those 3 and I’m happy. But TX - that is the biggest one of them all for what it means heading into 2028 and beyond.
If you missed yesterday’s Bulletin, you can find it here. You can subscribe for free to continue reading.
… Don Jr looked and sounded like he was jacked up pretty good again during a campaign speech in OH today. Meidas digital editor Acyn: “I watched his last speech, and it wasn’t like this. He seems very off this time. On my TV, his eyes are watering so much that it looks like he’s crying.”
… From the speech:
“They say the transgender thing is not an issue - but they want to go after your 3-year-olds without parental consent.”
“They want to pack the Supreme Court. They want to make Ohio a state!”
“They want to trans your kids, and don’t want parents to know anything about it.