Trump Economy Craters as Mamdani Surges

The die is cast for the next four years and the American people are going to suffer under Trump’s new budget plan. In Mamdani’s victory there is hope.

By Max from UNFTR

You have to admire the manner in which Mamdani is handling the scrutiny and hysteria after his historic victory on primary day. Wall Streeters and billionaires, Democratic and Republican operatives, elected officials and the entire conservative media ecosystem see Mamdani’s election as the end of the world. And we’re just getting started.

The primary was the appetizer and some very powerful people are going to spend tens of millions of dollars trying to stop the Mamdani freight train come November.

Like the rest of the country, the vast majority of New Yorkers are suffering under the yoke of income inequality and unaffordability. The reason our billionaire Congress and their donors are freaking out is because they know his message will be heard well beyond New York. To understand why, all we need to look at is the continuous mudslide of bad economic news coming from every reporting agency in the nation.

So let’s begin by examining the parts of Mamdani’s messaging that resonated and then contextualize them in the data.

The Mamdani Blueprint

Freeze the rent.

Make buses fast and free.

Deliver universal childcare.

Establish city-run grocery stores in food deserts.

Over and over again he repeated this platform on podcasts and on the streets, then eventually on television and radio programs. Let’s break them down one at a time.

Rent

In the words of the great Jimmy McMillan, “The rent is too damn high.”

McMillan made a name for himself running for several offices on this simple message. He even ran against Andrew Cuomo for governor in New York because he felt like the Cuomo family sided with the landlords and donor class.

Maybe this is why Cuomo took this message so lightly and didn’t address affordability. You see, people like Jimmy McMillan and Zohran Mamdani are a joke to someone like Cuomo, who oozes establishment self-righteousness and antipathy toward workers. There’s another Queens guy like that—red hat, bad haircut, wears a red tie below his beltline, fake tans — that guy hates his supporters too but he does a better job of hiding it.

What the media got wrong about Mamdani’s “freeze the rent” policy is that it only applies to rent stabilized apartments, or about 40% of units in New York City. Under the Adams administration, landlords were given the ability to pass through increases that had been paused during COVID. The problem was that the increases were double-digit and have created an affordability crisis. Far from a socialist plot to turn NYC into a commune, Mamdani is simply suggesting a pause to give New Yorkers some breathing room.

Transportation

New Yorkers will also tell you the MTA is unreliable and buses are slow. So Mamdani built on a successful free busing pilot that increased on-time rates and gave relief to hundreds of New Yorkers, not to mention the free Staten Island Ferry that transports 40,000 New Yorkers every day. All he did was put forward a good government plan to help alleviate the burden on New Yorkers who rely on public transportation the most. (No billionaires were hurt in the process.)

From the beginning, when congestion pricing was introduced, Mamdani was one of the first people in the New York Assembly to try and pair it with a free busing model. He understood that people coming from the outer boroughs into Manhattan would be priced out of driving, buses took too long and the trains were woefully underfunded.

In terms of funding, free busing is a drop in the budget bucket for New York and is separate from the MTA train and subway budgets so he knew this was the place to begin. Smart, thoughtful, evidence-based, successfully piloted and appealing to the people who need it. By the way, did you know the MTA and NYC budget office claim to still be missing $456 million between the years of 2011 and 2021? Apparently, when Cuomo was governor he siphoned money each year from the MTA to cover “debt service” for New York State.

Childcare

The best thing that came out of the de Blasio administration was (nearly) universal Pre-K but it got buried in the fight between the city and—guess who?—Andrew Cuomo. The de Blasio plan was to increase taxes on the wealthiest New Yorkers to fund universal Pre-K, which is an enormous problem in New York City because it’s that period between childcare and public school that places a tremendous burden on families.

The city was forced to compromise because Cuomo wouldn’t increase taxes on the wealthy. Instead they created a statewide program and cut the city in for a piece. But it was less money than they needed and the governor made sure that funds also went toward charter schools.

But that still leaves childcare. According to NYC Comptroller Brad Lander, the average annual cost of family-based childcare in New York City is $18,000 and $26,000 for center-based care. This is the highest in the country and why Mamdani was so hyper-focused on providing relief in this area as well.

Grocery Stores

The most impoverished New Yorkers will tell you that they have to buy small quantities of food and supplies from stores located outside their neighborhood. It’s either that or buy small quantities of more expensive food in their neighborhoods. Why? The Bodega Tradeoff.

Supermarkets take up a lot of space and space is hard to come by in most city neighborhoods. So they’re a destination not a convenience. Because supermarkets can purchase in bulk to take advantage of discounts, they tend to offer cheaper items to consumers. It’s getting there that’s a challenge. Only 45% of households in NYC own a car, the lowest rate among urban centers in the country.

Shopping in New York is a daily logistics and pricing battle.

As you can see in the graph above, prices are higher in bodegas for every day items except for the New York culinary delight, the Bacon, Egg and Cheese on a roll. (Sometimes served on a bagel. We can have that debate, but what’s not up for debate is that our BEC’s with SPK, if you're a real one, are the best on the planet. That’s salt, pepper, ketchup. But I digress.)

Mamdani is proposing to fill the gaps with city-run grocery stores, similar to the beloved city food cooperatives. This way New Yorkers can access healthy food closer to home. It’s like a public option, but for food.

Also, the greater the access to healthy, affordable food, the less illness and stress, which is an economic benefit in and of itself. Small, simple, and incredibly impactful.

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The Proof in the Pudding

What makes this a blueprint is the stunning distribution of voters in this primary. If you’re wondering why the GOP is in full freak out mode, this is why.

Look at the turnout among younger voters. This is Obama all over again, something very few thought we could replicate. Young voters have been on the receiving end of criticism that they’re great at protests and on social media but come election time, they don’t show. Especially in a primary. But Mamdani turned the tide for youth turnout because he listened to their issues and responded directly to them.

The Meiselas brothers were kind enough to give me the floor on the Meidas Substack to speak to how New York is more of a bellwether than people realize, as ethnic minority voters broke for Trump in the last election at a greater swing percentage than anywhere else in the country.

Mamdani brought everyone under the tent. The poor, the working class, the ethnic vote and young people.

So now let’s set that against the most recent economic data to demonstrate why his laser focused affordability message is going to reverberate throughout the country.

The Economic Mudslide

First I’m going to show you what Wall Street and the White House sees as really good news. I want to show you this first, then I’ll tell you why it’s actually not good news afterward. First off, the stock market is ripping and setting records again. But the market is not the economy. So I’ll come back to the stock market a little later as well.

What’s more relevant is the Ten Year Treasury Yield (below).

The rule of thumb is the higher the yield on the Ten Year Treasury the lower the confidence level in the economy. You can see the yield spike during the inflation crisis under Biden and then again when Trump announced his tariff plan. All the confidence you hear on Wall Street and from Trump’s economic team is the tiny little dip in the Ten Year Yield at the very end of the chart. They’re interpreting this small retreat as a sign that the global investment community is over the tariff fears and coming to their senses. So hold that in your hip pocket for a second...

Now let’s get into the nitty gritty because this has been a terrible stretch for the White House. This is the holy shit moment that the whole media ecosystem just sort of glossed over.

First Quarter GDP was revised and now reflects a half-percent decrease. It takes two consecutive quarters of negative growth for the statisticians to call an official recession so we’re on our way.

But now this is where we need to channel Mamdani to understand what’s happening here. It doesn’t matter what economists say. What matters is what’s in your pocket. Your bank account. Your level of stress and anxiety.

The harsh reality is the majority of Americans never truly emerged from the Great Recession after the Global Financial Crisis. The closest we came to that was during COVID when the government stepped in at the end of Trump’s term and the beginning of Biden’s term to undergird the economy across all income brackets. And then, it was back to business as usual with the Democrats taking big policy swings in the Rescue Plan and the IRA and the Republicans fighting them every step of the way and blocking key provisions that would continue to support the working class. Not to mention how corporate America hoovered up whatever savings were built up during COVID.

That’s what the Democrats missed in the election and what Trump tapped into. Except he never had any intention of working to reduce the price of eggs or anything of the sort. All that mattered was his personal immunity, which he got by retaking the White House and was subsequently codified by his Supreme Court lackeys. That and the tax cuts, of course.

GDP being down is bad enough, though I believe it’s an overrated and distorted metric to measure success of an economy. Beneath the GDP data is the real story. Take a look at disposable income.

Look at those May figures. That’s the percent change from the prior month of disposable income in blue, or the left column, and actual spending on the right, or the orange column.

But if we drill down further to see where the spending impact occurred, it’s fascinating. Remember, the wealthy don’t pull back and you can see that here.

Clothing, recreation services and recreational goods and vehicles increased but essential spending like insurance, food, hotels, auto parts and car purchases all decreased. Healthcare spending is up, which is not a good sign by the way. And so is housing and utilities—also not a good sign.

So spending is up in all the areas that either correlate to rich people spending or the working poor being massively overstretched. But wait, it gets worse.

Pilfering Seniors

One of the areas of government spending that was reduced the most and directly impacted impoverished seniors is cuts to Social Security benefits. It started in May and might be the first major domino to topple the economy.

The Trump White House claims that it’s simply cutting back on fraud and getting Social Security spending in line by cutting benefits to anyone that might have returned to work, spent time abroad or changed their marital status. This is a problem that they created and they’re banking on widespread dissatisfaction among SS recipients. To wit, DOGE fired 12% of the Social Security Administration staff, nearly 7,000 workers. So when people try to complain and find out what happened to their Social Security Check, or Disability Insurance payment or SNAP benefits, there might not be enough staff to field the complaints and questions.

To be clear, they’re doing this on purpose because they want to make Social Security less appealing so they can someday realize their dream of privatizing it. Their words, not mine. Bush tried it. This is an old plan that never went away.

But here’s something that I think will blow your mind.

Another policy the Trump administration resumed is student loan garnishments from Social Security and disability beneficiaries. To be clear, Trump didn’t invent this policy, but it died during COVID and he brought it back to life. More to the point, I want you to do the math. Senior citizens receiving Social Security having their benefits garnished up to 15% for student loans. Student loans.

There are senior citizens still living with student debt.

The Promise of Mamdani

The American economy is dying from the middle class down. The wealthy have pulled away from the pack and are separating from the rest of us. They have been for years. But this Big Beautiful Bill guarantees it.

It chisels inequality into stone and makes it the law of the land when Americans are struggling under historic debt. A housing crisis. Trump induced inflation. Disposable income is plummeting. Continuing jobless claims are building. Seniors aren’t coming back into the workforce because this economy is hostile toward them and now we’re cutting their benefits. The GOP is about to gut Medicaid as well, which is the last line of hope for millions of families.

This is why Mamdani won the primary.

He stood for everything these people do not. He heard the voters, thought about their problems, workshopped solutions and then hoofed it around the city. Day in and day out letting New Yorkers know they were seen and heard and felt. No magic bullet. No calls for a dictatorship of the proletariat. No fear mongering. Just good policy for the greatest city in the world. And a blueprint for Democrats everywhere to get back their mojo and remember what the party was always supposed to be about.

Oh, I did promise to tell you why their good news isn’t all that good. T-Bills and notes are up and the stock market is ripping because these things belong to the elite. The top 10% of the country own 90% of the stock market. They’re fine. You’re not.

Treasuries going down is a flight to safety because we’re also causing the global economy to fracture. And foreign investors see the resolve in the GOP to just keep printing and spending and cutting taxes on the rich. So they’re staying in and squeezing out every last dollar. The market and T-Bills are up, not because the economy is doing great, it’s because there’s nowhere left to hide.

But know this… The real money players… The top of the food chain? They don’t care if the market is up or down, because they make money on both sides with shorts, squeezes and leverage. And they know that if they go too far, push too hard, and the whole thing comes crashing down, the government will bail out Wall Street and they won’t touch Main Street with a ten foot pole.

In Trump’s America, the 1% actually do keep winning. And for them, America is great again and again and again.

Max is a contributor to the MeidasTouch Network and Publisher of UNFTR Media.

For deeper dives into economic and socioeconomic stories, visit UNFTR.com or @UNFTR on YouTube. On BlueSky.

Sources

Youth Vote Distribution

U.S. GDP

St Louis Fed: Ten Year Treasury

Personal Income and PCE

Social Security Cuts

Cuomo Siphons MTA Money

Percent of NYers with Cars

Comptroller Report on Childcare

Bodegas v. Supermarkets