Trump Made His Epstein Problem Much Worse

And how this could hurt Republicans in the midterms.

Years have gone by since Jeffrey Epstein was tried, convicted, sent to prison, and committed suicide (allegedly). Trump made it through his first election and term with the Epstein case not affecting him negatively with his MAGA base despite his obvious personal connections with him, which were pretty extensive. His MAGA cult accepted his explanations that none of his contacts with Epstein involved girls and he cut ties with him as soon as he learned about the allegations against him.

Four years went by with Trump out of office and the Epstein story largely fell out of the public consciousness as these things do with so much other news happening. But not with Trump’s MAGA base. The various conspiracies surrounding the case continued to build online on social media and in right-wing podcasts. The conspiracies garnered huge numbers of clicks and views for the grifter class, so they were more than happy to feed the beast.

There were many different conspiracies involving Epstein, but most who are obsessed with the case generally fall into either one of two camps. The first believes that there is a “Deep State” cabal that secretly controls all aspects of government and society run by elites from both parties, and that many of them were caught up in what Epstein was doing so there is ample incentive for leaders of both political parties to cover everything up to try and get the public to move on. The second group believes that Epstein was a Mossad agent used to gather blackmail videos of powerful elected officials so Israel would be able gain control of the US government through extortion.

When Trump won the 2024 election, many of the influencers with huge followings believed that all the information would finally be released by his new FBI Director and Attorney General. They believed that former AG Bill Barr was very much part of the Deep State and covered everything up in term one. They were primarily interested in 3 things: 1. The names of everyone who Epstein brought into his orbit to rape girls; 2. Evidence that his death was not a suicide and who killed him; 3. Who were Epstein’s co-conspirators?

Trump said nothing about the Epstein case on the campaign trail and was never asked about it in interviews in 2023-24. He largely avoided the subject, with good reason. He could have then appointed an FBI Director, Dep Director, and AG who had said very little about Epstein in the past. They also could have then avoided talking about it, and if asked said they were focused on more important things right now with vague promises to look into it in due time. Which would be never. That kind of stalling has worked with his base in the past - how many times has Trump promised “we’ll take a look at that” or “in two weeks” only to have something never happen?

Instead, Trump did the exact opposite with his appointment of some of the leading Epstein conspiracy theorists over the last 4 years - which only poured gasoline on the fire for MAGA anxiously awaiting the big reveal. Kash Patel, Dan Bongino, and Pam Bondi may have been chosen for their loyalty to Trump over qualifications and competence, but they also carried with them a lot of baggage on Epstein. Their mouths had written a lot of checks to MAGA on this issue, and they expected to be cashing them right about now.

But it was not to be. Patel and Bongino told Maria Baritromo on Fox last month that they had reviewed the files and were convinced that Epstein killed himself, which infuriated MAGA. But still they were assuaged by the fact that Bondi gave two separate interviews to Fox where she said there were hundreds of victims and thousands of videos that were “on her desk” that she was reviewing. She said some of the materials had to be “redacted,” but everything would be released shortly. Then DOJ posted a memo on their website this week that nothing would be released and the case was closed. No formal announcement, no press conference, no Fox interview. Just an unsigned memo posted on a website.

Epstein went from a story that had somewhat fizzled in the public consciousness for years to the number 1 trending story on social media for several days this week with no sign of relenting. Elon Musk has taunted Trump, Bondi, Patel and Bongino about it with dozens of posts accusing them of a cover up - stating that they were protecting Trump and his MAGA Svengali Steve Bannon. Appointing Epstein conspiracy theorists to the most senior law enforcement positions, then having them make big promises about what would be revealed, only made this situation a hundred times worse for Trump with his base when they failed to deliver. And Trump is nothing without his base.

When Trump was FINALLY asked about it by a reporter in his Cabinet meeting yesterday, he could not have possibly given a worse answer for his cult. He snapped at the reporter, said he couldn’t believe that anyone was still talking about the Epstein case or still cared about it, and wanted everyone to just move on. Even his most loyal supporters went crazy about that response. Benny Johnson summed up MAGA’s reaction best on his podcast:

“Pam Bondi was talking about Epstein. Kash was talking about Epstein. Bongino was talking about Epstein. Elon Musk was talking about Epstein. Trump has been talking about Epstein. This is the worst response I've ever seen from President Trump.”

Why does this matter? It matters a lot if you care about winning elections. Trump brought a big chunk of new voters into the Republican Party in 2016 and since. These were people who had no loyalty to the Republican Party and still don’t really. Some were Tea Party people who voted 3rd party in the past, some libertarians, some Democrats, some independent, and many who never voted before. The big challenge for the Republican Party has been to get those people to show up for midterm elections when Trump isn’t on the ballot. And that wasn’t especially successful in 2018 or 2022.

If you missed my daily Bulletin yesterday, I had lots of quotes in it from MAGA influencers who were furious at Trump and Bondi over this. You can read it here.

Republicans could have a perfect storm hit them in 2026. Trump isn’t on the ballot and is a lame duck. Many promises he made aren’t being kept. The economy could be in bad shape because of tariffs and his economic policy. People are losing their health care. He promised to reduce the deficit and just passed a bill with the largest deficits in history. He is talking about work permits for migrants in certain industries, which has angered MAGA. Deportations would kill the economy and drive up labor costs. Now the Epstein cover-up, which has done more to disappoint and disillusion Trump’s base than any other issue I have seen - including his waffling on abortion after Dobbs.

Trump has reignited this story and this controversy with terrible appointments in key positions and his own bungling of the situation. And it isn’t going away. This is not an issue where MAGA can be easily distracted by something else because it is something they have cared about passionately for years. And Republican candidates all over the country are hoping that this isn’t yet another issue that is going to cause a chunk of MAGA to stay home on election day in 2026 - or to vote for Elon Musk’s spoiler candidates.

Who would have thought a year ago that Jeffrey Epstein could cost Republicans seats in 2026? Well, he just might because of how the Trump administration has bungled this from the start of this term.