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Debra MacKillop's avatar

one question: is it accurate to compare early GOP vote in 2020 (which may have been for Biden since trump pushed waiting until election day), to early GOP vote in 2024 (now that trump is encouraging early voting) and assume it is for Democrats?

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Ian's avatar

It is a relatively safe assumption that a significant number of them are voting D this year.

As mentioned, this is supported by EV exit polling, but the red counties with EV surges are counties where Nikki Haley got a good percentage of the primary votes. Are all of them voting Harris, or even half? No, of course not, but it just takes a small percentage.

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