By Joe Plenzler, co-host of Meidas Defense
I recently sat down for a chat with national security expert Dana Stroul to talk about US strategic interests in the Middle East. Dana currently serves as the Director of Research for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and previously served as the Pentagon’s deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East - their top strategist for the region. Here’s what I learned and why it should matter to you.
In the wake of recent operations in the Western Hemisphere - Venezuela specifically - and surgical strikes across the Levant, a dangerous seduction has taken hold in Washington: the belief that the U.S. military instrument is so precise, so overwhelmingly superior, that it can solve geopolitical riddles with the push of a button. As we watch another significant buildup of aircraft carriers and air defense off the shores of Iran, we must confront a sobering reality. Military force can destroy facilities, but it cannot, on its own, deliver a sustainable political end-state or achieve strategic objectives.
The current military buildup in the region is being framed as a tool for leverage—a way to force the Iranian regime to the negotiating table to abandon its nuclear ambitions, its ballistic missile arsenal, and its “Axis of Resistance.” But we are operating in a strategic fog.
The Intelligence Void
Last summer, the administration claimed to have “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program. Yet, we have no inspectors on the ground to verify this, no baseline for damage assessment, and no independent corroboration. When we use superlative language like “obliterated” without proof, we erode the most valuable non-kinetic tool we have: the credibility of U.S. intelligence.
Furthermore, even the most successful kinetic strike has limits. You can level a laboratory and incinerate hardware, but you cannot use a B-2 bomber to delete nuclear knowledge or find hidden enriched uranium. Military action is a pause button, not a delete key.
The “DIME” is Out of Balance
National security is traditionally built on the “DIME” framework: Diplomacy, Information, Military, and Economics. Today, that framework is dangerously lopsided. With the State Department gutted by early retirements, DOGE cuts, and voluntary departures of experts, USAID sidelined, and the U.S. Agency for Global Media dismantled, we have effectively disarmed ourselves in the information and diplomatic theaters.
When we retreat from the “I” and the “D,” we leave the field to Russia, China, and Iran to narrate the future of the Middle East. If the only tool we have left is the military strike, every problem begins to look like a target. But as any combat veteran will tell you, you cannot shoot your way to a stable political outcome.
The Risk of the Unbacked Threat
We saw this tension play out during the recent Iranian protests. Loose presidential threats of military intervention gave hope to those on the ground, only to be met with silence when the regime initiated a brutal crackdown under the cover of an internet blackout. This creates a “credibility gap” that our adversaries are quick to exploit.
As we look toward the talks in Oman, the presence of figures like Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff signals direct presidential access—a powerful signal to Tehran. However, a photo-op is not a strategy. Without the deep bench of technical experts, sanctions lawyers, and regional specialists to handle the “back-wall” implementation, any agreement reached will be brittle.
The United States does not have a stellar track record with forced regime change or “managed” transitions, as the current chaos in Syria demonstrates. If we are to avoid unintended conflict, we must define what “victory” looks like beyond the explosion. Power without a diplomatic infrastructure is just noise, and in the Middle East, noise often leads to blood.
Too much rests on these matters for Congress not to exert its war powers under the Constitution to rein in the President and the executive branch. The price of a lack of coherent strategy will be a butcher’s bill full of injured and dead servicemembers on both sides of the conflict and dead, displaced, and injured civilians. Without a rock-solid plan for what happens after the fall of Ali Hoseini-Khamenei, we will have a more dangerous and chaotic national security environment to contend with.
Joe Plenzler is a combat-decorated U.S. Marine Corps veteran, communication expert, entrepreneur, and co-host of the Meidas Defense Podcast.
