By Joe Plenzler of Meidas Defense
Following a historic midterm election and repudiation of Trumpism, host Joe Plenzler sits down with Dr. Emma Ashford, Senior Fellow at the Stimson Center and author of First Among Equals: U.S. Foreign Policy for a Multipolar World. They break down what yesterday’s election results signal about public frustration with foreign policy—specifically the economic toll of the war in Iran—and discuss the structural incentives that drag the U.S. into “forever wars.” Emma unpacks the erosion of congressional war powers, the pitfalls of military intervention, European defense burden-shifting, and why American foreign policy must transition toward realist restraint in a multipolar system.
Key Takeaways & Discussion Topics
The Midterm Foreign Policy Referendum: How economic pain and rising costs of living linked to the war in Iran drove voters to the polls, marking a rare moment where foreign policy directly influenced domestic midterm results.
The “Forever War” Machine: Why structural incentives in Washington make it easy for presidents to initiate military interventions without congressional oversight, but politically difficult to end them.
Transatlantic Relations & Burden-Shifting: The evolving dynamics of NATO and European security, why U.S. allies are taking burden-shifting seriously, and why relations won’t simply snap back to pre-2016 norms.
Reclaiming Congressional War Powers: How Congress has systematically delegated its constitutional authority on sanctions and military force to the executive branch, and how oversight hearings can hold the Pentagon and White House accountable.
Realist Internationalism & Grand Strategy: Why the U.S. needs to embrace a “first among equals” framework, prioritizing core national security interests and diplomacy over global nation-building and overextension.
Realistic Objectives in Ukraine: Evaluating the Russia-Ukraine war through a realist lens, avoiding open-ended commitments, and seeking a negotiated diplomatic resolution.
Timestamps & Chapter Markers
00:00 – Introduction: Setting the stage following the midterm election results.
01:05 – Midterms & Foreign Policy: How inflation and the Iran War impacted voter turnout.
04:32 – Transatlantic Relations: European perspectives on U.S. foreign policy and alliance burden-shifting.
08:44 – The Anatomy of Forever Wars: Why presidents face structural incentives to use military force.
11:42 – The Costs of Overreach: Defense spending, Pentagon contracting, and domestic trade-offs.
17:29 – Iran War Miscalculations: Escalation dynamics, base vulnerabilities, and White House decision-making.
20:58 – Erosion of Congressional Authority: Article I war powers, AUMFs, and executive overreach.
28:15 – The All-Volunteer Force Dilemma: How the draft’s end insulated the broader public from military conflict costs.
33:13 – Congressional Oversight: Actionable steps for the incoming Congress to check executive power.
38:57 – First Among Equals: Defining realist restraint in a multipolar world.
50:43 – Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Grand strategy, realistic end-states, and diplomatic windows.
54:37 – Advice for the Next Congress & Conclusion: Moving beyond status quo approaches.
Resources & Links Mentioned
Books:
First Among Equals: U.S. Foreign Policy for a Multipolar World by Dr. Emma Ashford (Yale University Press)
emma-ashford-interview.txtOil, the State, and War by Dr. Emma Ashford
Armed Humanitarians by Nathan Hodge
Articles & Columns:
Dr. Emma Ashford’s columns at Foreign Policy magazine
Connect with the Guest:
Dr. Emma Ashford on X/Twitter: @EmmaAshford
Research & Bio at the Stimson Center
