Hi all, Ben here. It’s Friday. We may have made it to the end of the week, but the news is certainly showing no sign of slowing. Let me run through what we’re tracking before diving in.
Iran’s negotiating team refusing to travel to Islamabad until the U.S. honors its prior commitments, including a Lebanon ceasefire and release of blocked assets
Trump threatening “complete decimation” of Iran while talks hang by a thread
JD Vance en route to Pakistan to meet with... nobody, apparently, as of now
Oil prices back above $100/barrel as Iran tightens its grip on the Strait of Hormuz
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment crashes to a record low of 47.6. That’s worse than 2008 and worse than COVID
Inflation surges: gas up 21%, fuel oil up 31%, airfares up 15% in March alone
NYT verifies strikes hit 22 schools and 17 health facilities in Iran; Iran’s Red Crescent puts the actual number at 763 schools and 316 health facilities
Netanyahu asks court to delay his corruption trial testimony, citing “dramatic events”
China deploys nearly 100 naval vessels in the East and South China Seas — roughly double the norm
IDF intensifies strikes on southern Lebanon, hitting over 200 Hezbollah positions
Trump pumps Palantir stock on Truth Social, ticker symbol included
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Let’s get into it.
The Iran “negotiations” are on the verge of collapse before they even begin, and it is entirely Trump’s own doing.
Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, made it crystal clear this morning that two preconditions, agreed to by both parties, must be met before any talks commence in Islamabad. First, a ceasefire in Lebanon. Second, the release of Iran’s blocked assets. According to Iran’s Press TV, citing Iranian sources, the U.S. actually pressured Israel to halt its attacks on Beirut as a condition for Iran even showing up. Israel then, almost immediately after the so-called ceasefire was announced, launched some of its deadliest strikes on Beirut in years, killing hundreds of civilians and contributing to a massive casualty count.
So Iran looked at that, looked at Trump still rattling sabers on Truth Social, and wondered why the heck they would even get on that plane.
As of this afternoon, the Iranian delegation was sitting at Tehran’s airport — not boarding, not departing — waiting to see whether the United States would honor what it already agreed to. Senior members of the negotiating team remained in Tehran. This was reported as JD Vance was already wheels-up to Islamabad. He is flying to a negotiation that the other side has declined to attend. At least, as of this post.
According to the Iranian framework, the ten-point plan that the U.S. accepted as the basis for talks (despite Trump’s denials after the fact), Iran retains control of the Strait of Hormuz, continues uranium enrichment, keeps its ballistic missile program, and receives long-term security guarantees for itself and its allied forces. That is what Iran says Trump signed off on, as. well as the independent mediator from Pakistan. Trump even admitted to adopting the Iranian regime’s 10 points in his initial post about the deal. And now Trump is out here denying reality once again. Today, he has been threatening “complete decimation” of Iran and posting on Truth Social that the Iranians “don’t seem to realize they have no cards.”
Well, except the most important cards, I guess. Pocket aces, if you will. And that’s control of the Strait.
The Strait of Hormuz situation alone should be causing full-scale alarm in every American household. Shipping through the strait remains effectively shut down to non-Iranian vessels. The IRGC is controlling passage, deciding who gets through and who doesn’t. Iran is reportedly charging fees, some reports suggest $2 million per ship, for any vessel it deigns to let pass. Kevin Hassett, Trump’s own economic advisor, went on CNBC this morning and said that maybe, possibly, the strait could reopen in two months. Two months. That is the best-case scenario being offered by the people running this. Reminder: Trump claimed the strait was fully open earlier this week. Also, the strait was never closed prior to this war.
That brings us to the economy. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index just dropped to 47.6 for April. During the height of COVID in March 2020, we never got anywhere near that low. During the 2008 financial crisis, the worst economic collapse in generations, we never saw numbers remotely close to this.
On top of that, the inflation numbers that came in this morning are brutal. Remember when Trump claimed inflation was zero? Yeah. No. Year-over-year inflation hit 3.3% in March, the highest since May of last year. But the month-over-month number is what really should make your stomach drop: 0.9% in a single month. That is the biggest one-month jump since June 2022. Gas prices surged 21% in March. Fuel oil is up 31%. Airfares jumped 15%. And food, while flat for now, is likely heading up in the coming months as fertilizer supply chains get disrupted and shipping costs trickle downstream into grocery prices.
Sidebar: Pete Buttigieg put on a masterclass in a debate against MAGA CNBC host Joe Kernen this morning, regarding Trump’s war and the high inflation data. It’s well worth a watch.
The gas price spike, in particular, is historic. We are talking about the largest monthly increase in gas prices since tracking it began in 1967. Nearly 60 years. Thanks, Donald. This is what happens when you let a con man with no grasp of geopolitics and no genuine interest in peace play war games on behalf of 330 million Americans.
Speaking of war crimes, and I will not stop calling them that, the New York Times independently verified that U.S.-Israeli strikes damaged 22 schools and 17 health facilities inside Iran. Iran’s Red Crescent puts the real number at 763 schools and 316 health facilities damaged or destroyed. One school is too many. One health clinic is too many. We are talking about children. We are talking about nurses and doctors. And the people in the chain of command who authorized these strikes, including officials in the Trump regime, need to answer for this before international courts.
While all of this unfolds, Benjamin Netanyahu is asking a Jerusalem court to delay his own criminal trial testimony by at least two weeks, citing “classified security and diplomatic reasons” tied to current events. This is a man on trial since 2020 for fraud, breach of trust, and bribery. And he is now using the very wars he’s helped unleash as a legal shield to avoid accountability. The timing is, to put it generously, convenient. It also reveals that perverse nature of his incentives. War is good for him.
Meanwhile, while the hands of the U.S. are tied, China deployed nearly 100 naval and coast guard vessels in the East and South China Seas this week, nearly double the typical presence. Two separate security officials, not from Taiwan, told Reuters this is not an anomaly. It is, they said, the “new normal.” While the U.S. is bogged down in a catastrophic Middle East war of its own making, with a gutted security credibility and an economy cratering in real time, China is quietly repositioning. They don’t need to fire a shot. They just need to wait.
Trump posted this morning that all of this amounts to the “World’s Most Powerful Reset.” Sure, Donald. If by reset you mean resetting America to its weakest geopolitical position in living memory, resetting oil prices to triple digits, resetting consumer confidence to historic lows, and resetting the global order in China’s favor. Mission accomplished!
Thanks for reading. And if you aren’t subscribed yet, subscribe now! Like, re-stack, and spread the word. Ron Filipkowski will post his daily bulletin later in the day with a full breakdown of all the news, and we’ll also have a new episode of Ask the Editor-in-Chief, exclusively for paid subscribers.
