Friday Afternoon Updates: Reality Gets in the Way of Trump's Lies — 3/13/26

It’s Friday, we’ve made it to the end of the week. Let me fill you in quickly on what’s happening right now. Thanks to all our subscribers and to everyone who stepped up after Apple blocked our podcast and got it back to the top of the charts. Everything should be back up and running now. As always, you can find the show anywhere you find podcasts.

First, the most tragic news of the day. All six crew members aboard a U.S. KC-135 Stratotanker that crashed over western Iraq have now been confirmed dead. The aircraft went down during the Iran war operations while flying over what the military describes as friendly airspace. U.S. Central Command says the loss of the aircraft was not caused by hostile fire or friendly fire, but the circumstances remain under investigation. We have received no clear explanation as to what happened.

The Chief of Staff of the U.S. Air Force released a statement expressing devastation over the loss of the airmen and extending condolences to their families. Pete Hegseth, on the other hand, said regarding the incident: “Bad things can happen.”

Six Americans lost their lives serving their country, and regardless of politics, that reality should stop everyone for a moment. These service members answered the call, and now their families are dealing with an unimaginable loss. May they rest in peace.

What makes this even more troubling is the broader context. This war was launched without congressional authorization, without a clear strategic objective, and with the administration constantly shifting its story about what’s actually happening.

Take Donald Trump’s claims this week during a virtual G7 meeting. According to officials briefed on the call, Trump told world leaders that Iran was “about to surrender.” At the same time, he also reportedly told them that nobody in Tehran was left alive with the authority to make that decision. Huh?

Meanwhile, reality tells a very different story.

Today in Tehran, Iran’s leadership was publicly marching in massive Quds Day demonstrations. Iranian state media showed top officials, including senior security leaders and the country’s foreign minister, appearing openly in public alongside large crowds. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also appeared among demonstrators. In other words, the people the Trump administration claims are “underground” were literally marching in the streets.

They are just making things up, and the whole world knows the truth. The United States has never looked weaker because of these lies and their complete lack of a coherent plan or strategy. Wars cannot be won with gaslighting and Truth Social posts. And these lies by the Trump administration only serve the interests of the Iranian regime.

At one point during those demonstrations, video captured smoke rising after a U.S.–Israeli airstrike hit near a rally marking Quds Day in central Tehran. Protesters could be heard chanting as the strike occurred nearby.

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Meanwhile, the administration continues insisting it controls the strategic situation in the Strait of Hormuz. But events on the water suggest otherwise. According to maritime authorities, another cargo vessel was struck by an unknown projectile near Oman inside the strait. The ship requested assistance and crew members began evacuating after a fire broke out onboard. Several crew members were initially unaccounted for. This comes after multiple vessels have already been attacked in the shipping corridor, one of the most critical energy chokepoints in the world.

While the administration claims shipping lanes remain open, the reality is that ships are increasingly being hit unless they have permission from Iranian authorities to pass through. Hegseth earlier said, “The only thing prohibiting transit in [the Strait of Hormuz] right now is Iran shooting at shipping. It is open for transit should Iran not do that.” Breathtakingly stupid.

And the global reaction tells you everything you need to know about who other countries believe currently holds leverage.

France and Italy have begun direct talks with Iran in an effort to secure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for ships belonging to countries not involved in the conflict. Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto said European nations are trying to present a unified request for Iran to allow neutral shipping traffic to continue. In other words, allies are now negotiating directly with Tehran rather than relying on Washington.

Italy is also withdrawing its remaining troops from Iraq after a French soldier was killed and several others wounded in a drone strike near Erbil. The Italian government has made it clear it has no intention of joining this war.

Other major nations are doing the same thing diplomatically. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has reached out directly to Iranian leadership as his country faces fears of an energy crisis. Turkey has also been negotiating with Iran and recently received permission for a Turkish-owned ship to pass through the Strait of Hormuz because it had previously used an Iranian port.

All of this is happening while the Trump administration publicly insists Iran is on the verge of collapse.

Even inside financial markets, the consequences are already rippling outward.

Oil prices have surged, and one of the biggest beneficiaries so far has been Russia. According to reporting from the Financial Times, Moscow could be earning up to $150 million per day in additional revenue due to the global energy shock triggered by the conflict. Analysts estimate Russia has already gained between $1.3 billion and $1.9 billion in additional oil revenue as demand for its crude rises.

At the same time, the U.S. Treasury Department issued a license allowing countries to purchase Russian crude that had already been loaded onto ships before March 12. That decision effectively allows those shipments to move forward without triggering sanctions penalties.

European leaders were not pleased. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz criticized the move, warning that easing pressure on Russia now would undermine the broader effort to support Ukraine. French President Emmanuel Macron echoed that message, saying rising oil prices should not change the international stance against Moscow.

Back in Washington, the messaging continues to grow stranger. During an interview today, Trump was asked when the war with Iran would end. His answer: when he feels it in his bones. That’s the latest timeline being offered for a war currently shaking global markets and reshaping alliances.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon is sending additional forces to the region. A Marine Expeditionary Unit—roughly 2,200 Marines aboard three amphibious Navy ships—is being ordered to the Middle East as part of an Amphibious Ready Group deployment. These units are designed for rapid ground operations. Watch this space.

So while the administration claims the war is nearly over, the military is preparing for further escalation.

The geopolitical fallout is now spreading beyond the battlefield. Formula 1 is expected to cancel upcoming races in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia scheduled for next month due to the growing regional instability.

And here at home, new economic numbers are starting to tell a troubling story. U.S. economic growth for the fourth quarter of 2025 has been revised sharply downward. GDP expanded at just 0.7 percent, down from the earlier estimate of 1.4 percent. For the year overall, the economy grew 2.1 percent—slower than any year during the Biden administration and down from 2.8 percent in 2024.

All of this brings us back to the central problem right now: there appears to be no coherent strategy guiding this war or this rudderless administration. Allies are negotiating around the United States, global markets are reacting to instability, Russia is profiting from the energy shock, and American service members are already losing their lives.

And through it all, the administration’s messaging continues to shift between claims of imminent victory and preparations for deeper military involvement.

We’ll keep tracking every development closely.

Thanks to all of you for staying informed and supporting our reporting.