It’s Saturday, August 29th. Let’s get into the news, and I’ll keep it quick so you can get on with your day.
Here are today’s top stories:
Trump’s Venezuela oil deal, and why the numbers don’t add up
Venezuelan economists and an opposition figure are calling the deal a ripoff and a “land grab”
Iran is accusing U.S.-aligned actors of manipulating energy markets, while also floating diplomacy
A new lawsuit alleges Trump’s so-called Freedom Fuel gas stations that were undercutting market prices were selling…stolen fuel
The U.S. is reportedly now bullying the UK by using the Falkland Islands as leverage against Britain over defense spending
Trump’s National Park sell off plan
Top Republicans are admitting the economy is a big problem, and they’re trying their best to distract from it
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Now let’s dive in.
The “Biggest Oil Deal In World History” Isn’t What It Sounds Like…
Trump posted last night that the United States had locked up majority control of more than 65B barrels of proven Venezuelan oil reserves in a deal negotiated with new Venezuelan leader Delcy Rodriguez. He called it the biggest oil deal in history, in all caps, of course.
The problem is that proven reserves aren’t the same thing as oil you can actually pump, refine, sell, and so on. You don’t have to take my word for it. Let’s look at the experts. GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan pointed out that this 65B number is basically just a geological estimate… not oil sitting in a tank ready to use. It’d take ENORMOUS investment and YEARS of infrastructure work before any of it reaches a gas pump. In Trump’s post, he promised that this Venezuela “deal” would quickly result in lower prices. His followers should be ready for more disappointment.
Also, the crude in question isn’t the easy kind. It’s the heavy, degraded stuff that most U.S. refineries aren’t built to process. You’d need new refining capacity built from scratch, which could take 5-15 years.
Where’s The Money Coming From?
Then, there’s this little quirk… Who’s actually putting up the hundred billion dollars in investment Rodriguez’s statement mentions? Nobody knows. Exxon isn’t. Conoco isn’t. There’s talk of a new U.S.-created entity doing the deal with Venezuela, which would need congressional approval.
WSJ ran a report the day before Trump’s announcement and said Chevron and some other U.S. companies were nearing a deal to invest billions in Venezuelan fields (note the phrasing: “nearing” and “billions” — not the hundred billion Trump said). The report also noted how Exxon and ConocoPhillips plan to stay on the sidelines. Venezuela nationalized their assets back in 2007, and they’re still fighting for restitution almost 2 decades later. As we previously reported, Exxon’s own CEO said on the record months ago that Venezuela is uninvestable until there are durable investment protections and a real overhaul of the country’s hydrocarbon laws.
Then There’s This Legal Problem…
Here’s a legal wrinkle I don’t see many people talking about. The entire U.S. case for prosecuting Maduro rests on the argument that his regime was illegitimate, and that’s why he doesn’t have the immunity heads of state normally have. But, if that argument holds, any deal cut with Delcy Rodriguez’s government (which is the same regime by a different name), is exposed to the same illegitimacy problem down the road.
Where’s the Money Right Now?
Then there’s the question of where the cash already is. Since the U.S. took control of Venezuela’s oil exports, about 100M barrels worth around $8B moved through the system in four months. With NO public accounting. That includes that Qatari bank account this money is supposedly sitting in. Nobody in the Trump regime has explained what safeguards exist to keep that from becoming a Trump slush fund. Plus, actual production hasn’t budged. Venezuela continues to pump about 1.1M barrels a day, basically flat with last year. Risk analyst Brett Erickson called this a blatantly corrupt deal and a clear robbery of Venezuela’s resources against the will of its own people, and warned that people already struggling there could see it that way and respond accordingly.
Venezuela’s Not Getting Much Either
Economist Francis Rodriguez ran the numbers Venezuela’s own government released and found the deal generates around $3.22 in tax revenue per barrel, less than HALF the royalty rate under a concession granted by a Venezuelan dictator a century ago. Economist Francisco Monaldi called the $209B tax figure unusually low and worried about the complete lack of transparency in how this is being handled. And a Venezuelan opposition figure not aligned with the Maduro regime called this a massive land grab; he described a rapacious mafioso United States.
Iran Calls Out Market Manipulation
Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi accused U.S.-aligned actors of manipulating energy markets to keep Trump stuck in a war he’s losing, saying American consumers are the ones feeling the costs. He also said he’d had productive talks with Qatar and suggested diplomacy with Washington remains on the table, as long as the U.S. stops relying on pressure and starts building trust. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, no matter how many friendly outlets get fed stories that everything is back to normal.
About Those ‘Freedom Fuel’ Gas Stations…
Remember when Trump was praising the so-called Freedom Fuel Network for selling gas at $3.47 a gallon in about 20 locations, undercutting the price of others in the market? Well, the Mansfield Oil Company filed a federal lawsuit against KRSM Inc. and its president, alleging KRSM took more than a million gallons of fuel worth close to $4 million…then never paid for it…then supplied some of that to the Freedom Fuel Stations. Freedom Fuel itself isn’t a defendant, and the Washington Post got a response from KRSM’s lawyer pushing back on the claims calling it a pricing dispute.
Trump Declares Victory In Iran, Posts on Social Media, and Wants a Piece of Yosemite
As for what Trump’s actually doing today, he’s at his Virginia golf club for a MAGA Inc. fundraiser. Every event on his calendar is closed to the press. Trump so far has been on his typical posting spree: posting headlines claiming he’s winning the Iran War, whining about MS NOW and saying the network is in a “death spiral”… You get the point.
But the important story I want to share is about Yosemite. The Trump regime is reportedly planning to hand over a parcel inside the western boundary of Yosemite National Park to a company controlled by Kings Barn Realty Capital, a real estate private equity firm that owns around 240 acres nearby and wants to build a road and develop the land, per documents submitted to Congress. Yes, Trump is trying to sell pieces of our national parts to private developers.
Now Trump’s Attacking…the UK?
Per the Telegraph, the Trump regime is now considering using America’s position on the Falklands as leverage to push Britain into spending more on defense. In short, the U.S. is considering an ultimatum that threatens Britain’s sovereignty over the islands. A senior U.S. official said conversations are candid and nothing’s being ruled out. Britain responded Saturday, reaffirming its position is long-standing and unwavering.
Ronna McDaniel Admits the Obvious
On state regime media Fox, former RNC chair Ronna Romney McDaniel acknowledged the economy is a big concern for voters. Then she pivoted to talking about Zohran Mamdani and Hasan Piker to try to distract. She warned that the U.S. would feel the devastation being felt in Mamdani’s NYC if they elect Democrats in the midterms. What reality do these people live in?
That’s the rundown for today. Stay tuned for updates, interviews, reports, and more.
Shoutout to the Meidas Mighty!
No amount of whining will convince non-MAGA Americans that we’re winning anything. We just need to win in November, and bigly.
Every single morning we wake up to some new outrage. This time it’s trying to sell off a piece of Yosemite. We hope California Attorney General Rob Bonta and the entire state of California will be defending Yosemite against this land grab.