Hi all, Ben here. It’s Saturday afternoon, and there’s a lot unfolding right now. If you’ve been following the news closely, you’ve probably noticed something coming out of Donald Trump’s feed today. Panic. That’s the best word for it. Panic mixed with false bravado, mixed with a level of dishonesty that would be laughable if the stakes weren’t so serious.
Trump spent the morning posting about the war and claiming that a grand international naval coalition is forming to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. According to him, countries from around the world are supposedly sending warships to join the United States in securing the shipping lane after Iran moved to block it.
There’s just one problem with Trump’s claim. None of those countries appear to have actually said they’re doing that.
Trump is out there telling the world that China, France, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and others will be joining the United States Navy to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. If you understand even the basics of global alliances, you can see how absurd that statement is.
That’s quite the turnaround from just over a week ago! Remember when Trump said, “We don’t need [the UK] any longer... We don’t need people to join wars after we’ve already won!” Now, he is BEGGING the UK to send warships!
And China joining a U.S. naval coalition against Iran? That alone should set off alarms that Trump is either inventing this or doesn’t understand the geopolitical dynamics he claims to be managing (the answer is like BOTH). Iran and China have deep economic and strategic ties. Chinese ships are not exactly lining up to help the United States enforce a blockade.
The same goes for several other countries Trump tossed into his imaginary coalition. Japan and South Korea are U.S. allies, yes. But that doesn’t mean they’re about to rush warships into a hot combat zone because Trump typed something on social media. World leaders do not coordinate military coalitions through Trump’s personal posting habits. And when those leaders read posts like this, they see the same thing the rest of us see: chaos.
Trump also claimed in his post that the United States has destroyed “100 percent” of Iran’s military capability. One hundred percent. That’s the number he used.
Meanwhile, the real world continues to produce evidence that Iran’s military remains very capable of carrying out attacks across the region. Iranian drones have struck infrastructure and shipping facilities in several countries around the Persian Gulf. We’re seeing drone attacks, missile strikes, and escalating retaliation.
So the idea that Iran’s military capability has been completely eliminated isn’t just exaggerated. It’s disconnected from reality.
In fact, video footage released earlier shows massive smoke plumes rising from Iran’s drone strikes near oil infrastructure at the Fujairah port in the United Arab Emirates, one of the most critical energy hubs in the region. Local authorities are already doing the diplomatic dance that often happens after these attacks, describing the damage as the result of “falling debris.”
Anyone watching the footage knows what actually happened. A drone attack occurred. Infrastructure was hit. And the war continues to escalate.
Yet Trump keeps insisting that Iran has been “totally decapitated” and that the country is collapsing. But if you look at events inside Iran, that narrative doesn’t hold up either.
Iran recently carried out a leadership transition to a new Ayatollah. The regime remains intact. Senior officials have appeared publicly. State institutions continue operating. In other words, the regime that Trump claims has been wiped out is still standing. Trump’s claims that Iran has “lost” the war and that they have been completely decimated don’t make the United States look any stronger. They make the U.S. look weak. His lies may work on the MAGA faithful. But during wartime, our international allies and adversaries know the truth. And Trump’s lies reek of desperation.
Trump’s rhetoric about “bombing the hell out of the shoreline” is also the kind of language that turns allies away and rallies adversaries together. When leaders talk about war in that tone, it tends to unite populations behind their governments rather than weaken them. The Iranian regime thrives on the narrative that the United States wants to destroy the country. Trump’s messaging is practically writing their propaganda for them. He is doing their bidding!
And while Trump spends his time posting victory laps, there are serious developments happening that he has barely acknowledged. One of them is the crash of a U.S. KC-135 refueling aircraft in western Iraq that killed all six crew members aboard. These aircraft are flying tankers that refuel other military planes in the air. They do not have ejection systems. When they go down, survival is almost impossible.
It took far too long before the public learned what happened to that crew. Even now, the explanation from Central Command is vague. Officials say the crash was not caused by hostile fire and not caused by friendly fire. So what caused it? Right now we still don’t have clear answers. None.
Trump hasn’t addressed it directly. Instead, he’s spending his time attacking journalists and claiming that media outlets want the United States to lose the war.
Meanwhile, additional military forces are moving into the region. A Marine Expeditionary Unit is being deployed from Japan. These units are typically composed of thousands of Marines and are designed to support amphibious operations and rapid ground combat. In military planning, the arrival of a Marine Expeditionary Unit can be a precursor to a ground operation.
That raises an enormous question that the public deserves answers to: is the United States drifting toward a ground war in Iran? All signs point to yes. Trump already confirmed strikes near Kharg Island, a critical Iranian oil export hub in the Persian Gulf. That alone signals a major escalation in the conflict.
At the same time, the war’s geographic scope is expanding. Iranian officials have now openly warned that Ukraine could become a legitimate target under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter. Iran accuses Ukraine of assisting Israel with drone operations. For years, Iran has supplied Russia with Shahed drones used to attack Ukrainian cities. Ukraine has developed extensive expertise in countering those drones, and Ukrainian intelligence has played a role in tracking their deployment. Now Iran is threatening Ukraine directly.
That means the war involving Iran, Israel, and the United States is increasingly intersecting with Russia’s war against Ukraine. Two major global conflicts are beginning to overlap in ways that raise the stakes dramatically.
And that’s not the only flashpoint.
North Korea fired around ten ballistic missiles earlier today into waters near Japan. This comes as tensions on the Korean Peninsula rise after the United States moved key missile defense systems away from South Korea and redeployed them to the Middle East.
Those Patriot and THAAD systems were originally positioned to defend against North Korean missiles. Now they’re being used to defend U.S. positions in the growing conflict with Iran. That shift leaves South Korea more exposed at the same time North Korea is ramping up its military posture.
The war’s ripple effects are now touching Europe, Asia, and the entire Middle East. Remember when Trump said he’d end the Russian invasion of Ukraine within 24 hours? Instead, now the entire world is engaged in multiple, overlapping wars. The world is literally on fire. And it’s mostly because of Trump.
We also saw evidence of Iranian drone activity near the U.S. embassy compound in Baghdad. Smoke was visible rising from parts of the compound, including equipment mounted on the rooftops. Officials have again described the damage as debris from intercepted drones. At this point, the “debris” explanation has become something of a running joke across the region.
Finally, there is Israel’s expanding military campaign in Lebanon. Satellite imagery and video from Beirut’s southern suburbs show widespread destruction as Israeli forces strike Hezbollah infrastructure. Reports indicate that Israel may soon launch a large ground invasion into southern Lebanon.
So when you zoom out and look at the entire picture, the conflict is no longer confined to a single front. It is spreading. That’s what makes Trump’s casual commentary about ending the war when he “feels it in his bones” so alarming. That was his actual answer when asked how long the war would last. He said it would end when he felt it. That’s not a strategy. That’s not a military objective. That’s the kind of statement you hear from someone who treats global warfare like a reality show storyline.
Even Trump’s former defense secretary, Mark Esper, has pointed out something that should be obvious. Iran has shown endurance before. The country survived decades of sanctions, wars, and internal pressure. Its institutions remain largely intact.
Wars are not decided by social media posts or gut feelings. They are decided by logistics, strategy, alliances, and political resolve. Right now, the world is watching a conflict expand across multiple regions while the person in charge of the United States is posting fantasies about imaginary naval coalitions and claiming total victory over an enemy that is clearly still fighting. That disconnect between reality and rhetoric is becoming impossible to ignore.
Let me know what you think about all of this in the comments. And if you’re watching here, make sure you subscribe to this Substack as we continue covering these developments. Your subscriptions help fuel our reporting.
Thanks for being here.
