It’s Monday, November 2. You know what that means. It’s the last full day before the midterms!!!
Here are the top stories at the moment:
The final NYT/Siena polls show Democrats leading in all seven Senate races most likely to decide control of the chamber
AtlasIntel’s final poll has Democrats up 14 points on the generic ballot
Two Mike Rogers campaign staffers are registered foreign agents for Israel, according to Drop Site News
Trump delivers his closing message today at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool
Trump says he’s not confident the election will be secure and threatens to be “Mr. Veto” if Democrats win
Axios reports Netanyahu is pressing Trump to resume Iran strikes right after the midterms
A few important notes before we dive in:
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The Final Polls Are In
The New York Times and Siena released their final Senate polls, surveying likely voters from October 23 to November 1. The Times’ Nate Cohn notes that Democrats lead in all seven of the key states. Dr. Abdul El-Sayed leads Mike Rogers 53 to 42 in Michigan. James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 50 to 43 in Texas. Troy Jackson leads Susan Collins 51 to 45 in Maine. Sherrod Brown leads Jon Husted 49 to 44 in Ohio. Adam Hamilton leads Roger Marshall 49 to 44 in Kansas. Mary Peltola leads Dan Sullivan 48 to 46 in Alaska, and Josh Turek edges Ashley Hinson 48 to 47 in Iowa. Alaska and Iowa are within the margin of error, but Texas, Kansas, and Ohio would all be pickups in red territory.
I found this interesting as well. Cohn noted that the Times changed its weighting this cycle, essentially to guard against Republicans answering polls at lower rates. Under the old weighting, El-Sayed would be up 16, Ohio would be D+11, Kansas D+10, Texas D+9, Alaska D+6, and Iowa D+4. So that means the published numbers are the conservative version. And if you’ve followed the special elections with us since January 2025, in Iowa, Pennsylvania, Nebraska, and Florida, you’ve seen Democrats beat the polling by double digits again and again. I won’t predict anything, but I like where we are.
AtlasIntel, the most accurate pollster of 2024, released its final generic ballot: Democrats 55.5%, Republicans 41.4%. The race tightened in March to about 51 to 45, then widened right back out by September.
Even Rasmussen Reports, about as Trump-friendly as polling gets, finds only 34% of likely voters think the country is headed in the right direction.
Again, take these polls as information only. The only poll that ultimately patters is the one that happens at the actual polls tomorrow. Make sure to vote. Take nothing for granted.
Michigan: Rogers Has a Foreign Agent Problem
Drop Site News found that Rogers spokesperson Abigail Ronson and communications staffer Jesse Stokes have been registered agents for the government of Israel since May and last October, respectively. Both work for Convergence Media, whichis involved in a $46.5 million Israeli government-funded campaign to push pro-Israel messaging in the U.S., including through social media and AI.
And the trail runs straight back to Trumpworld.
Ronson, a former staffer for Speaker Mike Johnson, disclosed in a May Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) filing that she’s also doing work for Israel through Clock Tower X, the firm wholly owned by Trump’s former campaign manager Brad Parscale. According to Parscale’s own FARA registration, Clock Tower X subcontracts for Havas Media Germany on behalf of the State of Israel, producing digital content aimed at Gen Z and conservative Christian audiences, plus AI and search optimization work, in contracts reportedly worth millions. So the woman speaking for Mike Rogers is on the payroll of a foreign government through Donald Trump’s old campaign chief.
The stunt appears to be backfiring. According to the Times, Black voters who gave El-Sayed lukewarm support in September now back him 93 to 4. Bruce Springsteen also endorsed El-Sayed, calling him a fighter for the Constitution and against the “corrupt, lawless, and anti-American leadership” in the White House.
El-Sayed, asked on MS NOW about Stevens, said the race was never about him, Rogers, or Stevens. It was about the people of Michigan and whether they can afford gas, groceries, and a doctor.
Trump’s Closing Argument
Compare that with Trump. Overnight he posted a split-face image, half Elvis and half Trump. The official White House account posted a “Madden Most Feared: MAGA Edition” player card rating Trump “99 MAGA.” People can’t afford to fill their tanks, and the White House is making video game memes.
At 2 p.m. ET today, Trump speaks at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool. When reporters in Dubuque asked why, he said it was to show how beautiful it is now that it’s finished, then complained about vandals. That’s the closing message: look at my pool. Here’s a screenshot we snagged of the setup. Note the sign: “Back, and more beautiful then ever.”
I hope you didn’t hurt yourself when you rolled your eyes so far into the back of your head just now. Apologies in advance.
“Mr. Veto”
On Miranda Devine’s Pod Force One for the New York Post, Trump said he’ll become “Mr. Veto” if Democrats win. It seems like he’s finally accepting his fate.
Well, maybe not.
Asked if the elections will be secure, he said “No.” He also posted Alaska’s ranked-choice ballot stamped “SCAM!” because a second Sullivan appears above incumbent Dan Sullivan, then mused that people don’t know what “incumbent” means.
He said he’d “love to run again,” the 22nd Amendment be damned. He said the country “is doing so well” and claimed “the greatest economy in history.” Asked about $2 gas, he said “You will see less.” On Iran, he said “we haven’t been really fighting” for much of the war, didn’t know what “resilient” means, and suggested “at some point, we will have to do that.”
Iowa and Kansas: Vietnam, Sissies, and “God Made Trump”
In Dubuque, the five-time draft deferment recipient claimed he could have won Vietnam in a week by going after Ho Chi Minh City instead of bombing forests. As an X Community Note pointed out, Ho Chi Minh City was Saigon, the capital of America’s own ally, South Vietnam.
Speaker Mike Johnson told the crowd Trump doesn’t sleep because “sleeping is for sissies.”
In Salina, Roger Marshall, trailing by five, led the crowd in “Glory, glory, hallelujah. God made Trump!” and said this might be Trump’s last rally until his “next reelection campaign in a couple years.” Trump, meanwhile, joked again that $5,000 at Mar-a-Lago gets you one hamburger and a small dessert. Really driving home that affordability message!
Speaking of…
The Affordability Gap
RNC Chair Joe Gruters told NewsNation he’s talked with Trump about the hamburger joke and that the president “definitely has empathy for people.” That empathy was on display at Mar-a-Lago’s Halloween party, which PatriotTakes documented with a live zebra on display for guests.
On CNBC’s Squawk Box, NEC Director Kevin Hassett brushed off stagnant real incomes as “just the last couple of months,” while Bill Murray, sitting in the studio, kept mocking Hassett and asked why he is always smiling. The ticker showed oil at $99.36. In Mississippi, Bill Clinton said what everyone knows: gas prices are higher because of the war in the Gulf.
Here’s Murray telling Hassett to say the words “my dog just died” to see what happens to his smile:
Republicans are quietly furious at Trump. Per reporting attributed to Politico, one House Republican said Obama “only screwed his enemies, never his friends.”
Iran and What Waits After Tuesday
Axios’s Barak Ravid reports Netanyahu is pressing Trump to resume strikes immediately after the midterms, in a call one source called “tough.” Trump called it “a very good talk.” An unverified report from The Hormuz Letter claims 13 KC-135 refueling tankers are lined up at Israel’s Ramon Airport. Faytuks Network posted video of military air defense systems around Mar-a-Lago. Iran’s Navy says a tanker hit a mine east of the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, Beijing is becoming the diplomatic center of gravity. Iran’s Ali Bagheri Kani met Wang Yi, who pledged support for Iranian sovereignty. Oman’s Sultan and Saudi Arabia’s national security adviser were in Beijing the same day. Saeed Jalili says the messages reaching Tehran are “messages of desperation.” Two cornered leaders facing investigations at home is a dangerous combination.
Let’s Get This Done
Two years ago, nobody would have guaranteed we’d be standing here together, stronger than ever. Trump will throw everything he has at us in the next 24 hours. And then the 24 hours after that.
Top election lawyers are ready, and so are we.
Vote, bring three people with you, and we’ll be with you every step of the way tomorrow night. Remember to set your reminder on YouTube to watch our stream, which will be hosted by Scott MacFarlane, Katie Phang live from D.C., along with my brother Ben.
Oh, and a special shoutout to the iconic Christie Brinkley! We are so honored to have you as part of the Meidas Mighty and thank you for spreading the word about WTF America?!
Shoutout to the Meidas Mighty!
