Former Obama campaign manager Jim Messina joined MeidasTouch co-founder Ben Meiselas to break down the political trend heading into the 2026 midterms: Democrats are dramatically overperforming across the country.
Messina, who managed former President Barack Obama’s successful 2012 reelection campaign and served as Obama’s deputy chief of staff for operations from 2009-2011, says Democrats have now outperformed expectations across more than 100 special elections by an average of 12.8 points. And he sees an important historical parallel.
While many observers are comparing the current environment to the Democratic wave of 2018, Messina believes 2006 may be the better comparison.
In 2006, Democrats outperformed George W. Bush’s numbers by roughly 13.5 points and ultimately captured both the House and Senate. Messina says today’s 12.8-point overperformance is strikingly similar.
The numbers further down the ballot are just as notable. As Messina noted, Democrats have flipped 41 Republican-held state legislative seats in special elections since Trump returned to office, while Republicans have flipped zero Democratic seats.
Messina believes the driving issue is straightforward: everything feels too expensive.
“Expensive” may be the most important word of the election, he argued, as voters search for answers about the cost of gasoline, heating their homes, buying cars and simply getting through everyday life.
There are also signs of an enthusiasm gap. Messina pointed to recent Ipsos polling showing Democrats with a 20-point advantage among voters describing themselves as “very enthusiastic.”
“That starts to become wave-like material,” Messina told Ben.
Watch Ben’s full conversation with Jim Messina above as they dig into the numbers, the lessons of 2006, Trump’s growing political vulnerabilities, and what Democrats need to do to turn their special-election momentum into a midterm wave.
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