It’s Saturday afternoon. I hope your weekend is going well. Let me fill you in quickly on the latest updates because there is a lot happening right now.
First, the United States’s war against Iran continues to spiral. One of the developments drawing serious concern involves a U.S. strike on a freshwater desalination facility on Qeshm Island in Iran. According to Iranian officials, the strike disrupted the water supply for roughly 30 villages. Iran’s foreign minister condemned the attack and warned that targeting water infrastructure could set a dangerous precedent. The concern here is obvious: desalination plants are critical across the Gulf. Countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and others depend on them for basic drinking water. If Iran retaliates against similar infrastructure in neighboring states, the humanitarian and economic consequences could be enormous.
Iranian officials are already signaling that neighboring countries will continue to face consequences if they assist U.S. operations. Iran’s president issued a message claiming Iran has no intention of attacking neighboring countries—unless attacks originate from those territories. The message also included an apology to neighboring nations while warning them not to become what he described as pawns of imperialism. Iranian strikes have continued across parts of the region, despite Iran’s comments that they would stop their attacks.
We saw another dangerous moment when an Iranian drone struck near Dubai International Airport, narrowly missing one of the airport’s major concourses. The UAE says its air defense systems are actively intercepting ballistic missiles while fighter jets are working to shoot down drones and loitering munitions. This is happening in one of the busiest aviation hubs in the world.
Meanwhile, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain extremely high. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard says it struck an oil tanker after it ignored warnings from Iranian naval forces. Tanker movement through the waterway has already slowed dramatically as the war expands.
The economic ripple effects are becoming clearer by the hour. Kuwait, which is OPEC’s fifth-largest oil producer, says it has already reduced refinery and oil output because it cannot export due to the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. That choke point handles a massive share of the world’s oil supply, so even partial shutdowns create global shockwaves.
We’re already seeing that show up in fuel prices here at home. According to data from GasBuddy, the national average price of diesel has surged past $4.50 per gallon and could soon approach $4.65 or even $4.95 before stabilizing. Diesel is critical for shipping, trucking, and supply chains across the United States, so rising prices will filter through the economy very quickly. Oil prices and jet fuel prices continue to skyrocket as well. These increased prices will extend far before oil and gas.
At the same time all of this is unfolding, Trump’s public messaging unsurprisingly is becoming increasingly erratic. After Iran signaled that it did not intend to attack neighboring countries unless those countries joined the fight, Trump went on social media and falsely claimed Iran had “surrendered” and apologized to the region. The reality on the ground tells a very different story. Missile launches and drone strikes have continued.
Trump’s posts also included threats suggesting additional Iranian targets could be considered for destruction, including areas that had not previously been discussed as potential targets. The rhetoric is escalating in ways that many military analysts warn could further destabilize the region.
Even more disturbing were comments from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in a 60 Minutes interview. When Hegseth was asked if the U.S. should worry about Russia helping Iran, Hegseth said that the only people who need to worry right now are Iranians who believe they will survive. Statements like that, particularly when made by senior defense officials, only add to the sense that this conflict is moving into more dangerous territory. Hegseth made no distinction between the Iranian regime and innocent Iranians when making this statement. We’ve already see thousands of innocents killed in Iran.
At the same time, new reporting based on classified U.S. intelligence is raising serious doubts about one of the central claims behind Trump’s strategy. A classified assessment reportedly concludes that even a large-scale U.S. military campaign is unlikely to topple Iran’s governing system or lead to opposition forces taking power. The analysis suggests the clerical and military establishment in Iran has contingency plans designed to preserve continuity even if top leadership were killed.
In other words, the idea that military strikes could quickly collapse the Iranian regime and allow the United States to install a new government appears highly unlikely according to U.S. intelligence analysts.
Despite that reality, the White House continues to insist the Iranian regime is being crushed. But events on the ground, including continued missile launches and regional attacks, do not reflect a collapsing state.
While all of this was unfolding overseas, Trump hosted a summit in Florida with a group of right-wing Latin American leaders. The event, held at his private golf resort, was branded as the “Shield of the Americas” summit. Notably absent were the presidents of several major regional powers, including Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia.
The rhetoric coming out of the gathering was unhinged. Trump openly discussed using missile strikes against cartel targets and suggested missiles could be fired directly into homes of suspected cartel members. He also continued to discuss the idea of U.S. intervention against Cuba, claiming leaders at the summit had asked him to deal with the island.
The comments didn’t stop there. Trump criticized interpreters, mocked foreign languages, and told the assembled leaders he had no intention of learning their languages. At one point he repeated his lie that he had already ended eight wars and suggested another one could be coming.
Defense Secretary Hegseth, with zero self-awareness, claimed that for too long the United States had focused on conflicts in distant regions rather than its own hemisphere. So basically, not only does the U.S. invade countries overseas, but countries close to us as well. The Donroe Doctrine! America First! MAGA! (*eyeroll*)
Meanwhile, corporate media is finally starting to catch up to the dire economic situation in the United States. The job losses tied to Trump’s economic policies are now being widely reported across major outlets including the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, and the New York Times. Charts showing the decline in employment since the tariff-driven economic shock earlier in the year are now front-page news.
Those losses are happening at the same time energy prices are surging and global trade routes are under strain because of the war. The combination of rising fuel costs, economic contraction, and geopolitical instability is creating the type of environment that economists have been warning about for months.
So that’s where things stand this Saturday. Thanks for reading, watching, subscribing, and re-stacking.
We’ll continue monitoring all of this closely and bringing you the latest updates as they develop.
