Hi all, Ben here. It’s Saturday. Let’s get into it, because there’s a lot happening right now.
We are watching the global crisis of Trump’s making deteriorate in real time. Iran is escalating. The United States is escalating. Global markets are reacting. And instead of leadership, we’re getting erratic behavior, dangerous rhetoric, and distractions that would be laughable if the stakes weren’t so high.
Let me start with what Trump is focused on this morning. Trump went on Truth Social and threatened to deploy ICE agents to airports to take over security due to DHS funding issues. He framed it as some kind of crackdown, filled it with xenophobic attacks, and singled out Somali immigrants while going after Congresswoman Ilhan Omar. This is the President of the United States, in the middle of a global conflict, ranting about turning airports into immigration enforcement zones because Republicans refuse to fund a clean bill to fund TSA or vote for reasonable reforms on ICE.
At the same time, Trump is now living out his own worst predictions. If there is one thing Trump is good at, it’s psychological projection. Back in 2024, he posted that stock markets were crashing, job numbers were terrible, and the country was heading toward World War III under incompetent leadership. That post is now basically a description of what’s happening under his watch. Markets have been plunging. Even gold, typically a safe haven, has been unstable. Investors are reacting to chaos, not strategy. And the economic damage is tied directly to the geopolitical disaster Trump has created.
One of the most shocking developments in the past 24 hours is that the United States has temporarily waived sanctions on Iranian oil at sea. Think about that. At the same time Trump is escalating militarily with Iran, his administration is allowing Iranian oil to flow. Experts are pointing out the obvious contradiction: the U.S. is effectively funding a war against itself.
National security analyst Dennis Citrinowicz laid it out bluntly. This isn’t just a large campaign, it’s a poorly planned one. Oil prices now matter more than any strategic objective. And as long as Iran controls key geography—especially the Strait of Hormuz—nothing changes. You can’t outmaneuver geography. But you can absolutely empower your adversary if you don’t have a coherent strategy. And that’s exactly what’s happening.
In response to the Trump administration’s announcement, the spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Oil wrote: "At present, Iran essentially has no crude oil left floating on water or surplus for supply in other international markets, and the statement by the US Treasury Secretary is merely aimed at giving hope to buyers and psychologically.”
This morning, Iranian officials continued to troll the Trump administration. “Lifting sanctions on Iranian oil currently stranded at sea? Sorry-we’re sold out,” wrote Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the current speaker of the Parliament of Iran who has deep ties to the IRGC.
Iran is not just reacting militarily. It’s playing a long game economically. There are credible reports that Tehran is planning to formalize a new system where ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz would be required to pay fees. Essentially, Iran is trying to turn one of the most critical shipping lanes in the world into a toll booth under its control. And countries are already adapting.
India successfully negotiated safe passage for one of its tankers, with the Iranian Navy guiding it through the strait after verifying its details. Japan is now in talks with Iran to secure similar arrangements. Iran’s foreign minister has openly said they are ready to facilitate Japanese shipping. So instead of isolating Iran, Trump’s actions are pushing global powers into direct negotiations with Tehran. This is what “winning” looks like to Trump. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reports that Iran believes it is winning this conflict—and is preparing to demand a steep price to end it.
There’s more.
Iran fired two ballistic missiles at the U.S.-U.K. military base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. That’s nearly 4,000 kilometers away from Iran. One missile failed. The other was targeted by a U.S. interceptor, though it’s unclear if it was successfully shot down. Thankfully, none hit the base. But the message is unmistakable: Iran is demonstrating it can reach far beyond the Middle East. Analysts are warning that if these capabilities are fully realized, major European cities could fall within range. That’s how far this has escalated.
At the same time, the U.S. launched another strike on Iran’s Natanz nuclear enrichment site. The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed the attack and is monitoring the situation. So far, no increase in radiation levels has been detected, but the risk of a nuclear incident is real enough that the IAEA is publicly urging restraint.
Meanwhile, Iran is threatening to expand the conflict even further. Iranian officials have made it clear that if the U.S. targets key assets like Kharg Island, they will move to shut down the Bab el Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea. That would directly impact global shipping routes, and it could bring in proxy forces like the Houthis, who previously disrupted massive amounts of maritime traffic.
In just the past 24 hours, Iran has launched over 80 drones at Saudi Arabia. This is not contained. This is expanding.
Energy markets are already reacting. At the start of the year, there was a global oil glut. That’s gone. Analysts now say there’s effectively an “air pocket” in supply, meaning hundreds of millions of barrels that will never reach the market. Prices that were expected to sit in the $50–$60 range are now projected to climb dramatically. Some forecasts suggest oil could hit $150 per barrel or higher. The CEO of United Airlines told employees yesterday, “our plans assume oil goes to $175/barrel and doesn't get back down to $100/barrel until the end of 2027."
Even if everything stopped tomorrow, the damage is already baked in.
Qatar’s energy sector has been hit hard as well. The country’s top energy executive warned U.S. officials repeatedly about the consequences of striking Iran. Those warnings were ignored. Now, critical infrastructure has been destroyed, thousands have been evacuated, and the region has been set back by up to two decades. The White House is calling this “temporary disruptions.” That’s not how anyone on the ground is describing it.
Back here at home, the economic pain is already visible. Indiana is now reporting the highest foreclosure filing rates in the country. That’s families losing their homes. That’s the real-world impact of instability and economic mismanagement.
And while all of this is happening, what are Republicans in Congress doing? They held a rare Saturday session. You might think it’s to address the war, the economy, or the escalating global crisis. Nope. They’re focused on trans sports issues. That’s what they chose to prioritize. In the middle of a potential global conflict and economic downturn, they’re pushing culture war legislation because Trump wants it and they are desperate to shift their falling poll numbers ahead of the midterms.
At the same time, Trump’s Transportation Secretary is making media appearances to complain about “Trump derangement syndrome” instead of doing anything that resembles actual governance. And the White House? They’re posting embarrassing photos of foreign leaders, including Japan’s prime minister, in what looks like an intentional attempt to humiliate allies.
And while Trump is busy ranting and Republicans are chasing distractions, Americans are dealing with real crises that are being ignored. Hawaii is experiencing its worst flooding in 20 years. Entire communities are being devastated. Where is the federal response? Where is FEMA funding? Republicans are blocking it. Trump isn’t talking about it. Silence.
We’re going to keep covering all of this. We’re going to keep calling it out. And we’re going to make sure you have the information you need, because clearly you’re not going to get it from the people currently in charge.
Thanks for being here. Spread the word. And keep checking back for more updates.
