This Weekend in Politics, Bulletin 161.

… The Senate voted 51-49 to advance the budget reconciliation bill to the floor, which is expected to happen early this week. Debate began on that tonight. Republicans Thom Tillis (NC) and Rand Paul (KY) voted against it with Democrats. Trump then trashed Tillis last night on Truth Social and said he was backing a primary challenger against him next year.

… Tillis then announced he will not seek reelection. Tillis: “It's become increasingly evident that leaders who are willing to embrace bipartisanship, compromise, and demonstrate independent thinking are becoming an endangered species. I look forward to solely focusing on producing meaningful results without the distraction of raising money or campaigning for another election. I look forward to having the pure freedom to call the balls and strikes as I see fit.”

… Spectrum News: “Tillis spent a lot of time looking at the impact of the Senate's version of the bill on Medicaid in NC; the impact of provider tax cuts and cost-share changes were devastating. He warned Senate leadership it would be a policy disaster. They didn't have his back. Trump's posts criticizing him this weekend were what Tillis was looking for: they provided clarity, showing he wouldn't have the flexibility to be an independent thinker.”

… Tillis on his No vote: “It would result in tens of billions of dollars in lost funding for NC, including our hospitals and rural communities. This will force the state to make painful decisions like eliminating Medicaid coverage for hundreds of thousands in the expansion population, and even reducing critical services for those in the traditional Medicaid population.”

… NC would be a MASSIVE pickup for Dems next year in the Senate. If Republicans nominate a far-right MAGA nut, and Dems can field a strong candidate like Roy Cooper, they certainly can do it.

… NOTUS: “Lara Trump is now seriously considering a bid for NC Senate, per source.” The problem for Lara is that when she was publicly lobbying Ron Desantis for the appointment to Marco Rubio’s vacant seat she repeatedly emphasized how proud she was to be a Floridian. Lara grew up in NC but hasn’t lived there for many years.

… NBC’s Vaughn Hillyard: “A source close to the Trump family says Lara Trump is ‘strongly considering jumping in the race.’ Asked about the odds that she runs in the Republican primary to replace Tillis, the source says: ‘I’d put it as high as one could be considering it. The race will be over before it begins.’”

… Ron Johnson (WI) and Lisa Murkowski (AK) flipped their votes to yes at the last minute to get it over the finish line - for very different reasons. Johnson wanted deeper spending cuts, Murkowski wanted special exemptions for Alaska from some of the more odious parts of the package.

… NYT: “A new provision allowing ‘individuals in a noncontiguous state’ to be exempt from enforcing new work requirements imposed on SNAP, formerly known as food stamps, appeared aimed at mollifying Murkowski. Her state would be hit with billions of dollars in nutrition assistance costs as a result of the legislation, and she had cited the provision as one of her chief concerns. The bill also includes new health provisions designed to benefit AK, as well as new tax benefits for fishermen in the state’s waters.”

… So Murkowski secured a better deal for Alaskans, while screwing over the rest of the country.

… But not so fast, because the Senate parliamentarian then overruled the deal to buy Murkowski’s vote, along with several other provisions added in at the last minute. Politico: “Two provisions added to the bill just days ago — and tailored specifically to boost Medicaid payments to AK and HI — have been ruled to violate the Senate’s Byrd rule. That limits what can pass through the reconciliation process with a simple majority. GOP leaders had hoped the Medicaid provisions along with other AK-friendly changes, would be enough to win the vote of Murkowski.”

… “Senate Republicans also attempted to expand a Medicare drug-price negotiation exemption for ‘orphan’ drugs to include medicines that treat multiple rare diseases. But the parliamentarian ruled it is not in compliance with rules. The parliamentarian also ruled against provisions that sought to block implementation of two Biden-era regulations that seek to make it easier for older adults and individuals with disabilities to enroll in Medicaid and maintain coverage.”

… “Also flagged by the parliamentarian was a provision that would prohibit implementation of a Biden Admin rule on nursing facility staffing, which was estimated to reduce federal Medicaid spending by $23 billion over 10 years.”

… After that, Chuck Schumer argued that Lindsey Graham is using an accounting gimmick to violate Senate rules. NBC’s Sahil Kapur: “Senate Dems are making inquiries about ‘current policy baseline’- new budgeting method Republicans are using to treat $3.8 trillion of Trump tax cut extensions as costing $0. Dems say it’s invalid in reconciliation. Republicans cannot meet their -$1.5T Senate Finance Committee deficit instruction if they count the full 10-year cost of extending Trump’s tax cuts. So if they can’t use alternate baseline, it’d effectively torpedo the bill; that number is binding in reconciliation.”

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… Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) during the floor debate today: “If you think you can look the American people in the face and tell them we have to bring down the debt after passing what might be the most expensive bill in history, if you think you can do that and then be taken seriously, you know what, if you believe that, maybe you are foolish enough to think that 0 and a trillion are the same. I can tell you right now, if this happens we will all laugh you out of the room because we have never seen anything like this, not in my time here in the senate, not in my time on this planet. We are not going to let anyone forget that you're trashing the rules in order to pass this egregious bill.”

… Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ): “Republicans are cooking the books to ram through their disastrous budget bill, and they don’t care if that means skyrocketing the deficit and sinking the economy. There is no filibuster if the Senate R’s do this and when Dems take power there is no reason why we should not use reconciliation to pass immigration reform.”

… Politico: “While enough GOP senators have voted to start debating the bill, it’s not yet assured there will be enough to pass it. Pieces of the bill remain in flux — not only due to Senate concerns, but also lingering opposition from some House Rs. Negotiations continue as leaders in both chambers work to ensure the Senate product can be passed in the House without changes and sent immediately to Trump’s desk.”

… “While Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) supported starting debate, she described herself as ‘leaning against’ final passage if the Medicaid provisions don’t change before a final vote. Collins said she planned to offer several amendments reflecting her concerns.

… Collins explained why she voted to bring the bill to the floor despite the fact that she still opposes it: “It is the majority leader’s prerogative to determine which bills to bring to the floor. That does not mean in any way that I’m satisfied with the provisions in this bill.”

… Jesse Jenkins, Prof of Macro Energy Studies at Princeton: “It raises taxes on all wind and solar projects that haven't begun construction today unless they are placed service by end of 2027 and navigate complex, likely unworkable requirements to prove they don't use a drop of Chinese materials. After that, this bill ADDS A NEW tax on wind and solar projects that can't prove the same. Oh and it does so while killing the tax credits to support domestic manufacturing of wind components at the end of 2027 and adding the same unworkable requirements to the credits supporting US solar and critical minerals.”

… “It'll murder our nascent clean energy manufacturing sectors. It actually kills the EV tax credits sooner than the House bill: after September 30 this year, rather than the end of 2025. This will destroy the battery manufacturing boom taking hold across Republican districts, killing 100s of thousands of good jobs. And the cherry on top: this adds a new production tax for metallurgical coal! You read that right: through the end of 2029, met coal producers get a 2.5% PTC. This bill kills the industries of the future while subsidizing the industries of the 19th century. It's insanity!”

… “Who wants this? The country's automakers don't want it. Electric utilities don't want it. Data center developers don't want it. Manufacturers in energy intensive industries don't want it. It straight up murders the boom in battery, solar and wind manufacturing investment. It jacks up your utility bill and raises prices at the pump. It kills a half a trillion dollars of pending investment in US manufacturing and energy supply and 100s of thousands of associated jobs. It makes our air dirtier and our climate more dangerous. Seriously: Who the fuck benefits from this, besides Joe Craft and his coal mining interests and a couple of big gas producers?”

… “Republicans are screwing over their constituents, American business interests, and our country's future in an epic way here. And that's putting aside the fact that this cuts health care and food assistance for the poor to make tax cuts for the rich permanent while blowing up the national debt to the tune of $3-5 trillion dollars. What a way to ‘make America great.’”

… Elon Musk responded to Jenkins’ posts: “The latest Senate draft bill will destroy millions of jobs in America and cause immense strategic harm to our country! Utterly insane and destructive. It gives handouts to industries of the past while severely damaging industries of the future. At the same time, this bill raises the debt ceiling by $5 TRILLION, the biggest increase in history, putting America in the fast lane to debt slavery! This would be incredibly destructive to America!”

… Musk then posted a graphic showing that a big majority of Americans are against the bill in every single poll: “Polls show that this bill is political suicide for the Republican Party.”

… Michael Thomas, Clean View Energy: “The US will need ~450 GW of new electricity generation capacity by 2030 to meet rising demand from data centers, reshoring, etc. And the Senate voted on a bill that could wipe out ~500 GW of potential energy generation capacity.”

… Trump was asked about the elimination of renewable energy projects and incentives in the bill on Fox today: "We're doing coal. I don't want windmills destroying our place. I don't want these solar things where they go for miles and they cover up half a mountain and they're ugly as hell."

… Electrek: “Republicans in the Senate have now updated Trump’s tax and budget bill to kill the $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles by the end of September. As expected, the entire thing looks like it’s coming straight out of a fossil fuel industry wet dream, which should not be surprising considering Trump told the oil industry he would do this if they gave him over $1 billion, which they did.”

… “The only person who appears surprised is Elon Musk, even though Trump and the GOP campaigned on doing this with his own money. The US is already significantly behind the rest of the world in terms of EV adoption, and this will only increase this gap. It will only further isolate the US from the world’s transition to electric vehicles and make the domestic auto industry uncompetitive on the world stage.”

… “Ironically, Tesla, whose CEO helped make this happen by giving Trump and the GOP $300 million, is going to be the most affected. I expected Tesla to start losing money in Q1 2026, but if this passes, I can see Tesla beginning to lose money in Q4 2025.”

… Fox Business host to Ag Sec Rollins: “The polls show this thing is not popular. The Fox poll shows it is under 40% approval. When you look at the Quinnipiac poll, the Pew Research Poll—these are all showing few people favor this thing. 38% favor on the Fox poll. When it comes to the other ones, the Quinnipiac poll, that one has 53% opposing it. 27% support it. A lot of Americans don’t like this—even some people who voted for Trump.”

… Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) was asked on MSNBC why Republicans are supporting the bill when it is so unpopular with voters: "A lot of it is just fear of Trump. I wish I could say they're only talking trash on this bill but not other things. You wouldn’t believe the amount of things I hear from Republicans around national security items -where they are privately embarrassed.”

… Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN): “This bill is a big beautiful betrayal. $4 trillion in new debt. That's increased interest rates on mortgages and the like. Then it's another $100 billion in Medicaid cuts, which were already at $800 billion. Throwing 16 million people off of their health care. And then rural hospitals, closing 300 rural hospitals.”

… Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI), who is in line to be Dem Leader if Schumer ever steps down or retires: “Building Trades Opposed. Solar industry opposed. Musk Opposed. Nursing homes opposed. Hospitals opposed. This thing is a rotting fish. 1) Biggest wealth transfer in American history. 2) Kills solar industry, raising prices. 3) Almost a trillion dollar cut to Medicaid. 4) Nursing homes shutting down. 5) Energy shortages. 6) 4.5 trillion in NEW DEBT. — I promise you this bill is worse than you think.”

… Schatz: “According to the clean energy industry, here’s what the Republican tax bill means: 300,000 fewer jobs per year in wind and solar. 300 GW less wind and solar built this decade. This is several times more than what we add to the grid in an entire year and we’ll just lose it, as demand soars. $450 billion of lost capital. Meanwhile China will surge ahead. Loser stuff.”

… Politico: “Every major health system in Louisiana is warning Speaker Mike Johnson and the rest of the state’s congressional delegation that the Senate GOP’s planned Medicaid cuts ‘would be historic in their devastation.’ The health systems said the Senate’s revised text hits states like LA even harder than previous iterations and would slash more than $4 billion in Medicaid funding for the state’s health care providers.”

… National Association of Building Trades Unions: "If enacted, the budget bill stands to be the biggest job-killing bill in the history of this country - the equivalent of terminating more than 1,000 Keystone XL projects. It threatens 1.75 million construction jobs."

… Committee for a Responsible Fed Budget: “The CBO just published their “current policy” score of the Senate reconciliation bill. These numbers suggest the bill would add over $3.9 trillion to the national debt. Specifically, the bill includes roughly $4.45 trillion of net tax cuts and nearly $300 billion of gross spending increase, partially offset by nearly $1.5 trillion of gross spending cuts.”

… New scoring from the CBO also shows that the Senate bill will result in 11.8 million people losing their health insurance, compared to 10.9 million in the House bill.

… Immigration expert Aaron Reichlin-Melnick: “If the bill passes, it could make ICE the nation’s largest jailer, with more funding for detention than the entire federal Bureau of Prisons. It would give ICE enough money to have more officers on board than the entire FBI. This alone could transform American society forever. If the GOP reconciliation bill passes, ICE gets through FY2029: $45 billion for detentions, on top of the current annual budget of $3.4 billion; $14.4 billion for transportation and removal, on top of the current annual budget of $750 million; and $8 billion for hiring.”

… Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) was forced to remove his proposal in the bill to sell off federal lands to developers. Several House Republicans said there was no way they would vote for the bill if that was in there.”

… Rep. Jim Risch (R-ID): “Senator Lee has withdrawn the sale of public lands provision. The people of Idaho have been clear—we do NOT support the sale of our public lands to the highest bidder. I am proud to help lead the effort to remove this provision from the One Big Beautiful Bill.”

… Trump attacked both Republicans who voted no on Truth Social: “Did Rand Paul Vote ‘NO’ again tonight? What’s wrong with this guy???”

… “Looks like Sen Thom Tillis, as usual, wants to tell the Nation that he’s giving them a 68% Tax Increase, as opposed to the Biggest Tax Cut in American History! I can’t believe that the Great People of NC, a State that I love and won all 3 times, and a State that I just brought back with money, blood, sweat, and tears, from the recent tragic floods, when Sleepy Joe Biden let them DROWN, right up until the end of that Admin, without doing anything. Tillis, despite being a Republican, was MISSING IN ACTION — NC will not allow one of their Senators to GRANDSTAND in order to get some publicity for himself, for a possible, but very difficult Re-Election.”

… Trump then said he will back a primary challenger against Tillis, just as he is doing against Thomas Massie in the House: “Numerous people have come forward wanting to run in the Primary against ‘Senator Thom’ Tillis. I will be meeting with them over the coming weeks, looking for someone who will properly represent the Great People of NC. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

… But all of that is now moot with Tillis announcing he is stepping down.

… Meanwhile, Trump’s tariffs, which were supposed to reduce the trade deficit we have with other countries, actually did the opposite since countries are not buying our stuff. The Commerce Dept reported that in May the US goods trade gap widened 11.1% to $96.6 billion. Exports dropped $9.7 billion to $179.2 billion while imports were little changed at $275.8 billion.

… Trump was asked what he was going to do on July 9 when his latest “pause” on tariffs expires: “We're sending letters out saying, 'congratulations, we're gonna allow you to trade in the US. You're gonna pay a 25% tariff, or a 20%, or a 40 or 50%.' I would rather do that.”

… Trump: “I'm going to send letters, that's the end of the trade deal. I could send one to Japan. Dear Mr. Japan, here's the story. You're going to pay a 25% tariff on your cars, you know? So we give Japan no cars. They won't take our cars.”

… What could go wrong? And who is this “Mr. Japan” guy?

… Trump was also asked why the TikTok divestiture hasn’t happened despite the fact that the law said it was required 5 months ago: “We have a buyer for TikTok.” Host -Who's the buyer? Trump: “I'll tell you in about two weeks.”

… Two weeks.

… But Fox Business analyst Charles Gasparino said that is nonsense and the issue is Trump’s China tariffs: “Let’s be clear: There was ALWAYS a buyer for TikTok. The problem was the seller, the Chinese, is balking. This would have been done were it not for the trade war between Trump and Xi. It’s really a non-story at this point UNLESS Xi has agreed to sell as part of a deal.”

… Several groups have been protesting the construction of Ron Desantis’s ‘Alligator Alcatraz’ to house migrants in the swamps. AP: “Hundreds of protesters lined part of Hwy 41 that slices through the marshy Everglades as dump trucks hauling materials lumbered into the airfield. Cars passing by honked in support as protesters waved signs calling for the protection of the expansive preserve that is home to a few Native tribes and several endangered animal species.”

… AP: “The govt fast-tracked the project under emergency powers from an executive order issued by DeSantis that addresses what he views as a crisis of illegal immigration. That order lets the state sidestep certain purchasing laws and is why construction has continued despite objections from Miami-Dade County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava and local activists.”

… “The facility will have temporary structures like heavy-duty tents and trailers to house detained immigrants. The state estimates that by early July, it will have 5,000 immigration detention beds in operation. Desantis: “Clearly, from a security perspective, if someone escapes, you know, there’s a lot of alligators. No one’s going anywhere.”

… There are also lots of pythons and anacondas.

… NYT: “Far from public view, the toll of the Trump admin’s crackdown on immigration is unfolding in overcrowded detention facilities across the country. Some immigrants have gone a week or more without showers. Others sleep pressed tightly together on bare floors. Medications for diabetes, high blood pressure and other chronic health problems are often going unprovided. In NY and LA, people have been held for days in cramped rooms designed for brief processing, not prolonged confinement, and their lawyers and family members have remained in the dark about their whereabouts.”

… “The nation’s immigration detention system is buckling under the weight of record numbers as the Trump admin intensifies its enforcement agenda with raids on workplaces and arrests at immigration courts. More than 56,000 immigrants were in govt custody on June 15, exceeding the current capacity of 41,000.”

… Paul Chavez with Americans for Immigrant Justice in Florida: “These are the worst conditions I have seen in my 20-year career. Conditions were never great, but this is horrendous.”

… WaPo: “The Trump admin has agreed to release from prison a 3-time felon who drunkenly fired shots in a TX community and spare him from deportation in exchange for his cooperation in the prosecution of Kilmar Abrego García. In exchange, he has already been released early from federal prison to a halfway house and has been given permission to stay in the US for at least a year. The govt also said they are likely going to give him a work permit.”

… NBC: “AG Pam Bondi has fired at least 3 career DOJ prosecutors who worked on cases related to the J6 insurrection. The attorneys were informed in letters signed by Bondi that they were ‘removed from federal service effective immediately’ with no further explanation. A fed law enforcement official: “This is a slap in the face not only to them, but to all career DOJ prosecutors. No one is safe from this admin’s whims and impulses, and the public certainly is not served by the continued brain drain of DOJ—we are losing the best among us every day.”

… After an Israeli court denied Trump’s demand to postpone PM Netanyahu’s corruption trial, he threatened to withhold aid to Israel if they didn’t reverse their decision: “It is terrible what they are doing in Israel to Bibi Netanyahu. He is a War Hero, and a PM who did a fabulous job working with the US to bring Great Success in getting rid of the dangerous Nuclear threat in Iran. The USA spends Billions of Dollar a year, far more than on any other Nation, protecting and supporting Israel. We are not going to stand for this.”

… Twelve hours later, an Israeli court complied with Trump’s demands and postponed the trial today: "Following the explanations given, we partially accept the request and cancel at this stage Netanyahu's scheduled hearings.”

… Trump continued to insist on Fox that Iran’s nuke program was completely obliterated: “The bomb what through it like it was absolute butter.” Host - But I saw reports that they moved 800 pounds of enriched uranium? Trump: “They didn't move anything.”

… At the same time on ABC, Sen. Lindsey Graham was saying the opposite: “The 900 pounds of uranium? It's still out there.”

… Trump was asked about his post that Democrats should be prosecuted for allegedly leaking the intel report showing that Trump was lying. He was asked who specifically leaked it and what proof he had it was Democrats: “We can find out. You go up and tell the reporter, 'national security, who gave it to you?' You have to do that. And I suspect we'll be doing things like that.”

… So he doesn’t have any proof. And they are going to threaten to jail reporters citing “national security” if they don’t give up their sources, which will lead to another constitutional crisis over the first amendment which will likely end up in the Supreme Court.

… After backlash, Bill Ackman said when he posted that he and his billionaire friends would try and buy the NYC mayor election to defeat Mamdani, he didn’t really mean what he said: “A point of clarification on the mayoral election. I don’t believe that money can buy elections. When I wrote that there were hundreds of millions of dollars available to support a candidate for the mayoral election, I simply meant to suggest that fundraising was not going to be a barrier to entering the race. I didn’t intend to suggest that I was going to write $100 million checks as some in the media have suggested. That approach is guaranteed to cause the new candidate to fail as the ‘he is trying to buy the election’ refrain will resonate.”

… Trump was asked about Mamdani on Fox: "He's a pure communist. I think he admits it. If he does get in, I'm gonna be president and he's gonna have to do the right thing or they're not getting any money. He's gotta do the right thing."

… Mamdami was asked on Meet the Press if Trump is right that he is a communist: “I am not and I already have to get used to the fact that the president is going to talk about how I look, how I sound, where I am from and who I am—I'm fighting for the very working people that he ran a campaign to empower that he has since then betrayed.”

… AP: “Russia launched its biggest aerial attack against Ukraine overnight, part of an escalating bombing campaign that has further dashed hopes for a breakthrough in efforts to end the 3-year-old war. Russia fired a total of 537 aerial weapons at Ukraine, including 477 drones and decoys and 60 missiles. Of these, 249 were shot down and 226 were lost.”

… Kyiv Insider: “Russian troops have captured one of Ukraine’s most valuable lithium deposits, threatening a major US-Ukraine minerals deal. The Shevchenko deposit—located just west of the village of the same name in Donetsk region—was taken by advancing Russian forces this week. The site contains high-grade spodumene ore, a critical source of lithium used in electric batteries, defense technologies, and renewable energy storage. Industry analysts had regarded it as one of Ukraine’s most commercially promising fields.”

… “The deal gave the US preferential access to Ukraine’s critical minerals, including lithium, as part of an effort to reduce American dependence on Chinese supply chains and boost Ukraine’s economic resilience. The Trump admin has promoted the minerals partnership as a long-term strategic win. But in Ukraine, there is a growing sense of urgency—and quiet frustration—that while Russia is moving quickly to seize mineral-rich territory, the US has shown little appetite for accelerating military support to help protect those assets.”

… Trump-pardoned fraudsters Todd and Julie Chrisley were on Lara Trump’s new show on Fox. Todd: “We owe thanks to God and God touched President Trump’s heart. God led people to advocate for us. Every night I would pray that God would return me home, and he did that.”