This Weekend in Politics, Bulletin 347

… Viktor Orban was soundly defeated by opposition leader Peter Magyar in today’s crucial elections in Hungary. Trump repeatedly stated his support for Orban while JD Vance and Marco Rubio each made separate trips to Hungary to campaign for the corrupt autocrat. Will nearly all the vote in, Magyar’s Tisza party was leading in 137 parliament races to only 55 for Orban’s Fidesz party.

… This election was incredibly consequential not only for the people of Hungary but for Ukraine and Europe as well. Orban has done everything possible to prevent the EU from assisting Ukraine in their struggle against Russian barbarians. The big winners are Magyar, the Hungarian people, Zelensky/Ukraine and all of freedom-loving Europe. I congratulate them.

… AP: “Viktor Orbán conceded defeat after what he called a ‘painful’ election result, ending 16 years in power for a powerful figure in the far-right movement allied with Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. Partial official results show opposition leader Peter Magyar’s party dominating the vote, in a bombshell election result with repercussions around Europe and beyond.”

… ‘’Thank you, Hungary!’’ Magyar posted on X, as thousands of his supporters thronged the banks of the Danube in Budapest. Across town, Orban told his followers that “I congratulated the victorious party.’ With 60% of the vote counted, Magyar’s Tisza party had more than 52% support to 38% for Orbán’s governing Fidesz party.”

… “It’s a major blow for Orbán, the EU’s longest-serving leader and one of its biggest antagonists, who has traveled a long road from his early days as a liberal, anti-Soviet firebrand to the Russia-friendly nationalist admired today by the global far-right.”

… European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: “Europe’s heart is beating stronger in Hungary tonight. Hungary has chosen Europe. Europe has always chosen Hungary. Together, we are stronger. A country reclaims its European path. The Union grows stronger.”

… Reuters: “Magyar’s victory will likely spell an end to Hungary’s adversarial role inside the EU, possibly opening the way for a $105 billion loan to war-battered Ukraine blocked by Orbán.”

… Historian Timothy Snyder: “Hungarians showing how to win big in an unfair election: organize AND protest AND vote AND demand profound change.”

… Donald Trump Jr. posted this as polls opened: “To our friends in Hungary, we hope you will vote for independent thinking and for someone who stands for Hungary First. We hope you will vote for my father’s friend and ally. One leader in Europe has a direct line to the White House, I hope you will support Viktor Orban!”

… Zelensky: Congratulations to Peter Magyar and the TISZA party on their resounding victory. It is important when constructive approach prevails. Ukraine has always sought good-neighbourly relations with everyone in Europe and we are ready to advance our cooperation with Hungary.”

… “Europe and every European nation must get stronger, and millions of Europeans seek cooperation and stability. We are ready for meetings and joint constructive work for the benefit of both nations, as well as peace, security, and stability in Europe.”

… UK historian Ian Richardson: “I suspect the populist right bubble is bursting the world over. Trump is a busted flush, Orban will likely be hammered tomorrow, Bolsonaro is incarcerated and Farage is looking more like a loser with each passing day. These guys only offer anger and hate, not solutions and progress.”

… After Vance’s attempt to negotiate a peace deal with Iran failed in Pakistan, Trump took to Truth Social and Fox on Sunday morning to announce he was escalating the conflict to a complete blockage of all shipping from every country out of the Strait of Hormuz.

… From Vance’s press conference before leaving Pakistan after his latest foreign policy failure:

• “The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement. So, we go back to the US having not come to an agreement. They have chosen not to accept our terms”

• “We just could not get to a situation where the Iranians were willing to accept our terms. We weren’t able to make any headway.”

• “We need to see an affirmative commitment that they will not seek a nuclear weapon and they will not seek the tools that would enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon. We haven’t seen that yet. We hope that we will.”

• “We leave where a very simple proposal. A method of understanding that is our final and best offer. We’ll see if the Iranians accept it. Thank you.”

… NYT: 3 main sticking points remained, according to two Iranian officials familiar with the talks:

• The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; Iran saying it would do so only after a final peace deal.

• The fate of nearly 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium. Iran made a counterproposal, but the sides were unable to reach a compromise.

• Iran’s demand that about $27 billion in frozen revenues held abroad be released.

… MB Ghalibaf, Speaker of Iran’s Parliament: “Before the negotiations, I emphasized that we have the necessary good faith and will, but due to the experiences of the two previous wars, we have no trust in the opposing side. My colleagues on the Iranian delegation raised forward-looking initiatives, but the opposing side ultimately failed to gain the trust of the Iranian delegation in this round of negotiations.”

… “Iran is a body with 90 million souls, from all the heroic people of Iran who, following the advice of the Supreme Leader and by taking to the streets, supported their children and sent us on our way with their blessings—for this, I am grateful, and to my colleagues in these intense 21-hour negotiations, I say: well done, God strengthen you. Long live and enduring be our dear Iran!”

… Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi: “In intensive talks at highest level in 47 years, Iran engaged with US in good faith to end war. But when just inches away from ‘Islamabad MoU’, we encountered maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade.
Zero lessons learned. Good will begets good will. Enmity begets enmity.”

… Sen. Andy Kim (D-NJ): “Did Vance think he was going to solve decades of disputes with Iran in 1 day? He spent 5 days in Feb hanging out at the Winter Olympics. Iran got highest level negotiations with America ever and still controls the Strait of Hormuz, while Vance appears to be giving up.”

… “Diplomacy takes enormous planning, technical expertise, and persistent engagement, especially in war time. Our servicemembers in harm’s way and Americans struggling with gas prices deserve serious negotiations, not the performance we just saw.”

… Global affairs analyst Olga Nesterova: “A good outcome for these negotiations would be Iran agreeing not to enrich above 3.67%, giving up 98% of its enriched uranium stockpile, accepting weekly IAEA inspections, keeping the straits open without charging anyone, and committing to all of it for at least a decade. In other words, the Obama deal.”

… Trita Parisi with Quincy Institute: “If JD Vance is right that the US went in to negotiations demanding zero enrichment, then of course this blew up. That was Israel’s red line, not Trump’s original red line of no nuclear weapons. Push for surrender, and you guarantee escalation.”

… UK TV host Lindsey Hilsum: “The Iran nuclear deal that Trump withdrew from came after 12 years of negotiations. Yet Vance thought Iran would accept US terms after 21 hours. The US thinks Iran lost this war, so they can dictate terms. Iran thinks it won, and - to use Trump’s terms - has many cards to play.”

We make the entire Weekend Bulletin available to everyone, while about the first third of the daily Bulletins during the week are available. Everyone is also able to participate in the comments section on these. If you missed Friday’s Bulletin, you can find it here.

… Meanwhile, as Vance was failing in Pakistan, Trump and his Secretary of State Marco Rubio were partying at a UFC fight in Miami. Rubio looked like he had a few cocktails.

Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AFP via Getty

… Trump then made several deranged posts on Truth Social:

• “Iran promised to open the Strait of Hormuz, and they knowingly failed to do so. There is great dishonor and permanent harm to the reputation of Iran, and what’s left of their “Leaders,” but we are beyond all of that. As they promised, they better begin the process of getting this INTERNATIONAL WATERWAY OPEN AND FAST! Every Law in the book is being violated by them.”

• “The meeting with Iran began early in the morning, and lasted throughout the night - Close to 20 hours. My 3 Reps, as all of this time went by, became, not surprisingly, very friendly and respectful of Iran’s Reps, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Abbas Araghchi, and Ali Bagheri, but that doesn’t matter because they were very unyielding as to the single most important issue and, as I have always said, right from the beginning, and many years ago, IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!”

• “Effective immediately, the US Navy will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz. At some point, we will reach an ‘ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT’ basis, but Iran has not allowed that to happen by merely saying, ‘There may be a mine out there somewhere,’ that nobody knows about but them. THIS IS WORLD EXTORTION, and Leaders of Countries, especially the USA, will never be extorted.”

• “I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas. We will also begin destroying the mines the Iranians laid in the Straits. Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!”

• “The Blockade will begin shortly. Other Countries will be involved with this Blockade. Iran will not be allowed to profit off this Illegal Act of EXTORTION. They want money and, more importantly, they want Nuclear. Additionally and, at an appropriate moment, we are fully ‘LOCKED AND LOADED,’ and our Military will finish up the little that is left of Iran!”

… Trump then went on Maria Bartiromo’s Fox show:

• Q - “Is this going to be enough - the blockade in this strait, the opening up of capacity in the US - to lower the price of oil and gas? Trump: It might not happen initially. Gas hasn't gone up as much as I thought. But regardless, even if it did, we have to stop this group of people.”

• Q - “Do you believe the price of oil and gas will be lower before the midterm elections? Trump: I hope so. I mean, I think so, it could be. It could be the same or maybe a little bit higher.”

• “We're putting on a complete blockade. We're not going to let Iran make money on selling oil to people that they like and not people that they don't like or whatever it is. It's going to be all or none.”

• On the blockade affecting China’s tankers: "As far as China is concerned, China can send their ships to us. China can send their ships to Venezuela. We told them, 'Buy from Venezuela.'"

• “They would be back in the stone ages. Nobody can be so stupid as to say that we want to have nuclear weapons and they have no cards. Bartiromo: If they do not give up that effort, Will you further destruct Iran? Trump: Yeah, I will.”

• “We can take out anything we want. As you know last week I said we're going to strongly consider knocking out their power plants and the rest of their bridges. We took down their big bridge.”

• “The only to thing left really is their water, which would be very devastating to hit. I would hate to do it, but it's their water, their desalinization plants, their electric generating plants. We could have them all down.”

• “I predict they come back and they give us everything we want. I don't want 90%, I don't want 95%. They have no cards.”

• On the Gulf of Mexico: "I was thinking about calling it the Gulf of Trump, and I decided not to do it.”

• "We don't get our oil from there. We have so much oil. We have boats pouring up to the US. They'll be filling 'em up, and they'll be leaving and they'll be packed with the best oil you can get. Light, sweet, crude. We don't need the strait."

… Ronald Reagan’s former Budget Director David Stockman: “Hey, POTUS, did you ever hear of world markets, supply, demand and inventory, and the process of arbitrage when prices misalign from one region to the next or one product line to its near substitute? I thought so.”

… CENTCOM: “CENTCOM forces will begin implementing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on April 13 at 10 a.m. ET, in accordance with the President’s proclamation. The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.”

… MB Ghalibaf: “Enjoy the current pump figures. With the so-called 'blockade', Soon you'll be nostalgic for $4–$5 gas.”

… German economist Janis Kluge: “What kind of 4D chess move is this? ‘We will really let oil prices explode! That'll show Iran who is boss!’ I mean... the idea is clear. He wants to stop Iran from privatizing the Hormuz Strait. And for once that is a legitimate goal, which could get support from other countries as well. But Iran may be able to withstand the outside pressure for longer than Trump hopes.”

… Cato Institute economist Scott Linciocome: “Watching oil and liquid natural gas markets, sure. But also watching markets for petrochemicals, fertilizer, aluminum, helium, sulfur, semiconductors... Buckle up. Roughly 11% of global maritime trade transits the strait each year - a lot of it crude oil and liquid natural gas, yes, but also loads of minerals and energy-intensive commodities."

… Former State and Energy Dept official Richard Nephew: “Iran's target list may also include onshore Gulf assets again if its ships are seized. Iran's approach has been to go much bigger and broader in retaliation, while being in the universe of ‘oil for oil’, ‘power for power’ etc.”

… Sen. Richard Bluementhal (D-CT) was asked on MS NOW about Trump’s comment on rising gas prices: “The president’s indifference is really demented, it’s a sign of lack of caring and compassion. My colleagues on the Republican side recognize they are headed toward a disaster in the midterms.”

… Middle East analyst Danny Citrinowicz: “The escalation now appears increasingly unavoidable, especially as Trump significantly raises the stakes. Iran is unlikely to back down. It will likely test US resolve by targeting American naval assets, while also attempting to disrupt commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz or deter tankers from transiting altogether.”

… “Such developments would almost certainly trigger a sharp spike in global oil prices, with cascading second and third order effects particularly across Asian economies that rely heavily on Gulf energy flows. At the same time, Iran will aim to project resilience and avoid appearing to capitulate under pressure.”

… “Further escalation would increase the likelihood of Houthi action in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, potentially threatening another critical maritime chokepoint. It would also raise the risk of Iranian strikes against infrastructure designed to bypass Hormuz, including pipelines such as the East-West corridor.”

… “While Iran would sustain significant damage, it will attempt to maintain oil exports through alternative routes like the Jask terminal, calculating that Gulf states may ultimately suffer greater economic harm. In any case, this is not a scenario with a clear winner, only varying degrees of loss.”

… NYT: “American intelligence agencies have obtained information that China in recent weeks may have sent a shipment of shoulder-fired missiles to Iran for its conflict with the US and Israel. Intel agencies have assessed that China is secretly taking an active stance in the war, allowing some companies to ship chemicals, fuel and components that can be used in military production to Iran for the war.”

… “Shoulder fired missiles, known as MANPADS, are capable of shooting down low-flying aircraft. China has long been reluctant to send finished military equipment to Iran, but some officials in the government want Beijing to allow its companies to directly supply the Iranian security forces during the conflict with the US.”

… Trump on Fox: "I hear news reports about China giving the shoulder missiles. I doubt they would do that because I have a relationship with Xi and I think they wouldn't do that, but maybe they did a little bit at the beginning, but I don't think they would anymore. But if we catch them doing that they get a 50% tariff."

… Rep. Mike Turner (R-OH) on CBS: Q - “Did they mine the strait? Because Trump also said they might not have. Turner: You’ll have to ask the president. Host: That’s the point - Congress hasn’t been briefed. Turner: It’s his tweet. Host: You’re a member of Oversight and Armed Services. Turner: You’ll have to ask the president.”

… Garry Kasparov: “Congress continues to become the Russian Duma, a willingly powerless peanut gallery deferring to the president in every way.”

… Q - “There hasn’t been a single congressional hearing. Do you think that’s adequate oversight of this war? Turner: Actually, we’ve had classified briefings.”

… Dem congressional candidate Fred Wellman: “Absolutely not good enough. They haven’t bothered to hold a public hearing on a war costing us billions, thousands of lives including at least 13 of our own troops, and spiking our economy. This is historic cowardice and failure. The Johnson Republican Doormat Congress is without question the worst in modern history.”

… Sen. John Fetterman on Mark Levin’s Fox show: “They are making it like there's kind of an energy crisis and that is just not true. I just tested that this morning. I gassed up my Jeep at Costco—I effectively paid $3.80 for a gallon. Two years ago, it was $3.65.

… Former Rep. Conor Lamb, who was defeated by Fetterman in the Democratic primary: “Diesel is $6.24 at Fetterman’s favorite PA store, an all time high or close to it. Truckers and farmers would say it’s a crisis.”

… Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) told ABC that the main problem is Iran’s strict gun control laws: "By the way, this is exactly what nationwide gun control results in. The Iranian people are completely disarmed. It's gonna be very difficult for them to rise up. So it's a very difficult situation."

… Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) on ABC: "You don't sucker punch somebody in a bar and then blame your buddies when they don't join the fight with you. If the president wanted the support of allies, he should've respected them instead of putting tariffs on their economies and trash talking them."

… Axios: “The scandal surrounding Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) is rapidly ballooning and could jolt a surge of expulsion votes for at least 3 of his House colleagues as soon as the chamber returns from recess next week. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) announced plans to force a vote next week to expel Swalwell. Democrats plan to counter with a vote to expel Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX).”

… If those votes succeed, votes to expel Reps. Cory Mills (R-FL) and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-FL) could follow, sources said. One House Dem: “People feel confident that the allegations against all 4 are credible. Members are frustrated by what feels like a bottleneck of scandals without any real accountability yet in any one.”

… A second House Democrat: “We want a full house cleaning. Get the garbage out of here. These jerks are destroying Congress, for the American people and for all of us who came here to do good work.”

… Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC): “I would support it.”

… Another House Republican: “It’s wise way to go.”

… Cory Mills’ chief of staff resigned this weekend amongst his many scandals, including domestic violence. She signed off her resignation post with this: “The horrors persist, but I do not.”

… Rep. Mike Kennedy (R-UT) to the College Republicans at the Univ of UT: “I want you to know life is hard, and when I was in my early teens, that was the first time that I took access to pornography. And I can guarantee you, somewhere in this room, somebody has challenges with that. For years, I knew that that was wrong. And I knew that every time I consumed some version of pornography that that was the wrong path, but it’s really hard to resist. I was addicted, and I know what addiction is like.”

… Tyler Bowyer, Charlie Kirk’s successor at TPUSA, has a brilliant new plan for Republicans in the upcoming elections: “Republicans on the west coast should move to AZ and NV. Republicans in the northeast should move to NH. Stack votes, win for a generation with those three states.”

… Nikki Haley told CNN that she will definitely not be running for president in 2028. In case anyone was wondering.

… New CBS poll has Trump’s overall approval at 39% approve, 61% disapprove. Independents only: Approve-29%, Disapprove-71%.