This Weekend in Politics, Bulletin 318.

… US Central Command: “3 US service members have been killed in action and 5 are seriously wounded as part of Operation Epic Fury. Several others sustained minor shrapnel injuries and concussions. Major combat operations continue and our response effort is ongoing.”

… Trump released a video announcing the strikes on Truth Social: “The lives of American heroes may be lost, and we may have casualties - that often happens in war.”

… Late Sunday afternoon, Trump released another video with an update: “Combat operations continue at this time in full force, and they will continue until all of our objectives are achieved. We have very strong objectives.”

… Trump: “Earlier today, CENTCOM shared the news that 3 US military service members have been killed in action. And sadly, there will likely be more before it ends. That’s the way it is. Likely be more.”

… Republican pollster Rich Baris: “Polling reviewed by the admin asked how many American casualties voters were willing to accept in a war with Iran. The answer was ZERO. Americans demanded ZERO casualties because Americans did NOT support a war.”

… Former Rep. Marge Greene: “The Trump admin actually asked in a poll how many casualties voters were willing to accept in a war with Iran??? How about ZERO you bunch of sick fucking liars. We voted for America First and ZERO wars.”

… Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) on Fox: “If we lose anybody in this operation, they will die a noble death because they will have sacrificed their lives to make us safer here at home.”

… US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz responding to news about US casualties: “Freedom is never free.”

… This was trending all day on X (formerly Twitter):

… NYT: “Shortly before the US and Israel were poised to launch an attack on Iran, the CIA zeroed in on the location of perhaps the most important target: Ayatollah Khamenei, the country’s supreme leader. The CIA had been tracking Khamenei for months, gaining more confidence about his locations and his patterns. Then the agency learned that a meeting of top Iranian officials would take place on Sat morning at a leadership compound in the heart of Tehran.”

… “The US and Israel decided to adjust the timing of their attack, in part to take advantage of the new intelligence. The CIA passed its intelligence, which offered ‘high fidelity’ on Khamenei’s position, to Israel. Israel, using US intelligence and its own, would execute an operation it had been planning for months: the targeted killing of Iran’s senior leaders.”

… “Israel had determined that the gathering would include top Iranian defense officials, including Mohammad Pakpour, the commander in chief of the IRGC; Aziz Nasirzadeh, the minister of defense; Admiral Ali Shamkhani, the head of the Military Council; Seyyed Majid Mousavi, the commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force; Mohammad Shirazi, the deputy intel minister; and others.”

… “The operation began around 6 AM in Israel, as fighter jets took off from their bases. The strike required relatively few aircraft, but they were armed with long-range and highly accurate munitions. At around 9:40 AM in Tehran, the long-range missiles struck the compound. At the time of the strike, senior Iranian national security officials were in one building at the compound. Khamenei was in another nearby building.”

… Telegraph: “Saudi Arabia joined Israel in lobbying the US to launch strikes against Iran. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman argued in favor of an attack during multiple phone calls with Trump in the past month. Benjamin Netanyahu also continued his long-standing campaign urging the US to join strikes on Iran. Iran retaliated by targeting residential buildings across the region, setting a 5-star hotel in Dubai ablaze, hitting a tower block in Bahrain and striking a Kuwaiti airport.”

… Trump posted: “Hopefully, the IRGC and Police will peacefully merge with the Iranian Patriots, and work together as a unit to bring back the Country to the Greatness it deserves. That process should soon be starting in that, not only the death of Khamenei but the Country has been, in only one day, very much destroyed and, even, obliterated. The heavy and pinpoint bombing, however, will continue, uninterrupted throughout the week.”

… Trump to Axios : “I can go long and take over the whole thing, or end it in 2-3 days and tell the Iranians: ‘See you again in a few years if you start rebuilding’.”

… So Trump’s plan after several days of bombings is then sit back and hope everything works out with a pro-US govt forming that loves us. In other words, he has no plan.

… Lindsey Graham was on NBC: “The future of Iran is going to be determined by the Iranian people. Host - But does the the president have a plan to guarantee that happens? Graham: No. It’s not his job to do this. It’s in America’s interest to make sure the Ayatollah is dead. He’s dead.”

… Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA): “Trump said that the Iraq War was a disaster. He said Libya was a disaster. He ran because a big part of the MAGA base did not want another war in the Middle East. They rejected Lindsey Graham, and yet here we have Graham being the face of Republican foreign policy. I believe this is a betrayal of a decent chunk of the MAGA base.”

… Trump’s former NSA John Bolton to Politico: “I think there could be a lot of turmoil, a lot of bloodshed - because the factions within the Islamic Revolution, if they don’t have a supreme leader, and if the next level down is decimated, and maybe even the third level is severely diminished, it’s going to be a struggle within the regime.”

… Reuters poll: “27% of respondents said they approved of the strikes, while 43% disapproved and 29% were not sure. 56% think Trump, who has also ordered strikes in Venezuela, Syria and Nigeria in recent months, is too willing to use military force to advance US interests. The vast majority of Democrats - 87% - held this view, as did 23% of Republicans and 60% of people who don't identify with either political party.”

… Former Dep. NSA Ben Rhodes: “A war that has no domestic or international legal basis. A war that Americans do not support. A war in response to no imminent threat. A pointless war.”

… John Fetterman did multiple Fox appearances this weekend. Sean Hannity revealed that he and Fetterman stayed up all night texting each other about how excited they were about the Iran strikes. The PA senator said this on Hannity’s show: “Why can’t we all just celebrate what happened today?”

… Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY): “Bombing a country on the other side of the globe won’t make the Epstein files go away, any more than the Dow going above 50,000 will.”

… Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ): “Trump ran on exposing the pedophiles and stopping wars. Trump is now protecting the pedophiles and starting wars.”

… Tucker Carlson: “Everyone knows we’re having this war because Israel wants it.”

… CNN contributor Scott Jennings was peddling a fake story on Sat: “Senior Trump Admin officials telling me that credible intelligence indicated Iran planned preemptive missile strikes against US military targets in the region, and against civilian targets as well. Failure to act would’ve resulted in mass US casualties.”

… There was not one other person reporting this. Trump did not even claim this. But CNN paid Jennings to come on the air and push the lie to their shrinking audience.

… Sen. Tim Kaine to CNN on Jennings: “Trump has advocated all kinds of reasons for this unnecessary war with Iran. It’s because of their nuclear program. 6x months ago, he said he’d obliterated the program. Years ago, he tore up a diplomatic deal that was controlling Iran’s nuclear program. I’m on two committees that give me access to a lot of classified info. There was no imminent threat from Iran to the US that warrants sending our sons and daughters into yet another war in the Middle East.”

… CNN’s Alayna Treene: “No senior Trump officials appeared on the Sunday shows today - not only rare but especially notable given many admin officials recognize the steep task they have in explaining the reasoning behind, and the overall objective, of the Iranian attacks to the American public.”

… Blackwater founder Erik Prince on Steve Bannon’s show: “I'm not happy about the whole thing. I don't think this was in America's interest. It's going to uncork a significant can of worms and chaos and destruction in Iran. Who takes over? You still have tens, hundreds of thousands of IRGC people that will be positioning to be the next rulers of that country. I don't see how this is in keeping with the President's MAGA commitment. I'm disappointed.”

… Trump did not notify members of Congress about the strikes, which was demonstrated when Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) was asked about it while campaigning: “I don’t know what the-- what’s, uh -- I’m learning like you are as the news unfolds exactly what’s happening.”

… WSJ: “Congressional Democrats are moving to force votes to curb Trump’s military action against Iran, denouncing the admin’s strikes as illegal and saying the WH acted without obtaining Congress’s authorization. Lawmakers in both chambers said they would seek war-powers resolutions to block Trump from using military force against Iran in the future.”

… Co-sponsor Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA): “Every single Senator needs to go on the record about this dangerous, unnecessary, and idiotic action.”

… “Even if it passed, such a measure would be largely symbolic as any resolution would have to be signed by Trump. Some Republicans have signaled they will support Democratic efforts. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) said he would work with Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA), who is sponsoring the House measure to force the vote when the House reconvenes.”

… Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY): “My oath of office is to the Constitution, so with studied care, I must oppose another Presidential war.”

… But at least one Democrat is not on board. Sen. John Fetterman: “I’m a hard no. My vote is Operation Epic Fury.”

We make the entire Weekend Bulletin available to free subscribers while about the first third of the daily Bulletins during the week are available. Everyone can also participate in the comments section to this one as well. Thank you to everyone who reads, shares and subscribes. If you missed the last Bulletin, you can find it here.

I certainly expect this to be a very busy week with Congress (finally) returning to work while we continue our war with Iran. We also have election day on the big senate primaries in Texas along with the Rep. Tony Gonzales situation not going away. I’m ready to do my best to capture that and everything else that happens.

… AP: “America and Israel’s attack on Iran disrupted flights across the Middle East and beyond as countries around the region closed their airspace and key airports that connect Europe, Africa and the West to Asia were directly hit by strikes. Hundreds of thousands of travelers were either stranded or diverted to other airports after Israel, Qatar, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Bahrain closed their airspace.”

… “There also was no flight activity over UAE after the govt there announced a ‘temporary and partial closure’ of its airspace. That led to the closure of key hub airports in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha, and the cancellation of more than 1,800 flights by major Middle Eastern airlines. The 3 major airlines that operate at those airports - Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad - typically have about 90,000 passengers per day crossing through those hubs.”

… WSJ: “For most of the day Sat, tourists and residents relaxed on Dubai’s glitzy Palm Jumeirah, tanning on the man-made beaches and throwing birthday parties for their children—even as the US and Israel struck targets in Iran and inbound Iranian missiles were being intercepted over the Persian Gulf. But just after dusk, the mood began to change.”

… “A loud explosion shook apartment buildings, and a thick column of smoke churned from an impact site near fancy hotels along the Palm’s trunk. People ran screaming down the beach as interceptors engaged missiles along Dubai’s cosmopolitan coast and the smell of gun smoke hung in the air.”

… “For decades, the Arab states of the Persian Gulf sold themselves as an oasis of peace in a region prone to conflict, attracting wealthy expats, multinational corporations and investment. Iranian explosives pierced that lucrative bubble. Missiles and drones rained down on Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and UAE, targeting bases and other strategic sites and scattering debris from intercepts. The attacks marred the business-friendly reputation Gulf countries took years to build.”

… Michael Ratney, former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia: “A conflict like this has the clear potential to unnerve international businesses operating in the Gulf. That’s both because it can freak out their expatriate staffs, at least some of whom will want to leave, and because it calls into question the basic sense of security and stability on which they based their decision to operate and invest there.”

… Journalist Shaiel Ben-Ephraim: “Iran is focusing on Dubai with its missiles with a total of 137 ballistic missiles and 209 drones at the UAE. This is a strategic gambit:
Iran aims to destroy Dubai’s reputation as a safe haven for global investment and tourism. UAE has a lot of personal business leverage on Trump, and Iran hopes they will pressure him into stopping.”

… Middle East security analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera: “UAE is the most leveraged country on earth and almost nobody understands why. 88% of its population are foreign nationals. 10.4 million people who hold passports that say India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Philippines, Egypt, Britain, somewhere else. They are not citizens. They are residents. They chose to be there because the risk-adjusted return on their lives was positive. Better jobs. No income tax. Safety. The entire economic model of the UAE is a value proposition, and that value proposition has a denominator called security that just went to zero.”

… “Emirates, the world’s largest international airline, has suspended all flights indefinitely. Etihad suspended until Monday. Singapore Airlines cancelled its Dubai service through March 7. United Airlines through March 4. More than 1,800 flights were cancelled on Sat alone, another 1,400 on Sunday. Dubai Intl Airport, which handled over a 127 million passengers last year, is dark. Sharjah Airport is shut. Abu Dhabi Airport took a direct hit that killed a Pakistani national and wounded 7.”

… “UAE confirmed its air defenses intercepted 137 ballistic missiles and 209 drones. 14 drones were not intercepted. Their debris fell on residential neighborhoods, hotel facades, port facilities, and according to multiple reports, a shopping center in Sharjah. When France gets bombed, the French stay because it is France. When Ukraine gets bombed, Ukrainians stay because it is Ukraine. When the UAE gets bombed, the 10 million people who make up 88% of its population have a decision to make.”

… “A country where nearly 9 in 10 residents can leave is not a nation in the traditional sense. It is a special economic zone with a flag. The moment the value proposition inverts, the population does not resist. It withdraws. This is not a war of attrition. It is a bank run on a country. The deposits are human. There is no deposit insurance. And the withdrawal window just opened.”

… “Schools are closed. Airports are closed. Flights are cancelled through next week. The residents of the world’s most ambitious urban experiment are sitting in underground parking garages because Dubai has no bomb shelters.”

… Reuters: “Brent crude jumped 10% to about $80 a barrel over the counter on Sunday, oil traders said, while analysts predicted that prices could climb as high as $100 after US and Israeli strikes on Iran plunged the Middle East into a new war.”

… Kobeissi Letter: Current situation at the Strait of Hormuz - Insurance costs in the Strait of Hormuz are skyrocketing:

• A vessel off the coast of Oman has been attacked.

• At least 250 ships have dropped anchors across the Middle East Gulf and coasts of Oman/UAE.

• War risk insurers have submitted cancellation notices for policies on ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

• Maersk is now suspending all shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

• Brent oil prices are trading up +10% over the counter.

• Regional leaders warn US that $100/barrel oil is a “clear and present danger.”

… 4 Israelis were reportedly killed in Jerusalem after a retaliatory strike by Iran.

… Micah Erfan: “The Iranian regime imprisoned my grandfather. I will dance on Khamenei’s grave when he dies. But I will not forget the lessons of the Iraq war.
Everything that made the regime-change war in Iraq disastrous applies here as well.
Iran is 4x the size and has 2x the population. There is no regime change without boots on the ground invasion and occupation. The govt will fall quickly, just as Saddam Hussein’s govt did. Many will die in the process. Following will be chaos.”

… “Reza Pahlavi will face domestic resistance if installed. Terrorist islet cells will strike American troops and new govt troops. Prolonged occupation will be required to restore order. Infrastructure and the economy will suffer damage in the process. The regime recently murdered 47,000 peaceful protesters. The mullahs deserve an eternal stay in the most fiery pit of hell. But don’t be fooled by any promises of a short and easy regime change war. There is no such thing.”

… Daily Beast: “JD Vance has been left out in the cold by Trump as the US wages war on Iran. Vance has made no secret of his skepticism over America’s involvement in foreign wars, and sources say the split has affected his relationship with the president. As everyone else in Trump’s inner circle took on key assignments for the unauthorized strike on Iran, Vance was notably absent.”

… “Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth and the national security team joined Trump at Mar-a-Lago on Sat as the strikes were launched on Iran. Marco Rubio was tasked with informing lawmakers about the impending attack, and Karoline Leavitt was heading up the communications team.”

… “Meanwhile, Vance was reportedly relegated to sit with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, DNI Tulsi Gabbard (who was also on record repeatedly against strikes on Iran), and Energy Secretary Chris Wright in the Situation Room, where they were kept in touch via a secure line.”

… AP: “Violent clashes between protesters and security forces in the Pakistani port city of Karachi left at least 9 people killed and more than 50 others wounded on Sunday, after hundreds of demonstrators attempted to storm the US Consulate. Police and officials at a hospital in Karachi said that at least 25 people were also wounded in the clashes and some of them were in critical condition.”

… Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) on CBS: “We’re gonna have Americans dying, and the end result is going to be hard line leadership continues in Iran and we don’t get rid of their nuclear program. That’s a moral and strategic disaster for the country.”

… Murphy: “It won’t be the billionaire children of Trump and his buddies that die. It’s going to be the children of middle class and poor families all across this country that are gonna die for a war of choice, a war of vanity, an illegal war.”

… Rep. Jason Crow (D-CO) on MS NOW: “You know who wins? The defense companies win, the oil companies win, the elites and the billionaires win. Last time I checked, it wasn’t him or his kids or his donors kids or the other elites in the WH that are having to jump into planes or pick up rifles.”

… Rep. Mike Levin (D-CA): “It appears that a Polymarket account ‘Magamyman’ made $515,000 in a single day betting on last night’s US strike on Iran, with the first trade placed 71 minutes before the news broke publicly. When this person bought in, the market had this at a 17% probability. They turned roughly $87,000 into over half a million dollars overnight.”

… “Reminder that Donald Trump Jr. sits on Polymarket’s advisory board and his firm invested double-digit millions into the platform last year. The DOJ and CFTC both had active investigations into Polymarket that were dropped after Trump took office.
Prediction markets cannot be a vehicle for profiting off advance knowledge of military action. We need answers, transparency, and oversight.”

… WaPo: “The Trump admin’s declaration that AI company Anthropic would be cut off from all govt contracts shook the tech industry, hardening political and cultural battle lines across Silicon Valley over military use of AI. Trump ordered govt agencies to ‘immediately cease’ using Anthropic’s technology, and Pete Hegseth labeled the company a ‘supply chain risk to national security’ after the company refused to allow its technology to be used for domestic surveillance and autonomous weapons.”

… “The Trump admin’s assault on Anthropic appeared to put the company on course to lose billions of dollars of potential revenue, although the start-up said that it would challenge Hegseth’s designation in court. The firm’s conversational assistant, Claude, is being deployed or tested in at least 5 govt agencies, including the Pentagon, the HHS, DHS and the Dept of Energy.”

… “Friday’s aggressive moves by the Trump admin put all of Silicon Valley on notice that tech companies seeking Pentagon contracts risk massive political and business fallout if they don’t back admin policies and cede control of how their tech is used. Rivals of Anthropic including Elon Musk and other tech allies of Trump seized on the conflict to pledge that their own companies would not question Pentagon policies, positioning themselves as loyal patriots.”

… Steven Feldstein, who specializes in research of AI in warfare: “It isn’t legally sufficient to simply proclaim or label a supply chain risk and have this be the final word. It’s a major overreach.”

… “Hegseth asserted that all companies that do business with the US military are now prohibited from doing any commercial activity with Anthropic. Although the legal basis for that sweeping ban was unclear, it could have disastrous consequences for Anthropic, which has received billions of dollars in investment from partners like Amazon, Microsoft and Nvidia that also supply the military.”

… Sam Altman’s OpenAI was then quickly announced as the company that will replace Anthropic. Altman: “We reached an agreement with the Dept of War to deploy our models in their classified network. In all of our interactions, the DoW displayed a deep respect for safety and a desire to partner to achieve the best possible outcome.”

… Historian Rutger Bregman mocked Altman’s statement: “We bribed Trump for $25M, publicly supported Anthropic while we were conspiring with Hegseth, signed a deal full of legalese about our fake red lines while giving the regime what it wants, and then we threw Anthropic under the bus again. Such a despicable company.”

… Bregman: “Sam Altman is such an incredible backstabber, liar and traitor. While your competitor is taking a heroic and principled stand, you swoop in to make your deal. Imagine working for this guy - is there a greater shame? This should lead to a mass exodus from OpenAI.”

… AI analyst Mark Valorian: “OpenAI did not just magically get the DoD to agree to the terms Anthropic was asking for. Sam is blowing smoke up your ass to distract from the fact OpenAI just took the terms Anthropic considered so egregious, it warranted jeopardizing an enormous part of their business. DoD does not just break off a massive contract to accept the same demands 5 minutes later from someone else.”

… “Until explicitly indicated otherwise, the only logical conclusion here is that OpenAI swooped in and unscrupulously stooped lower than Anthropic was willing to go for the money. Assume all OpenAI data will now be used for what Anthropic deemed ‘mass domestic surveillance of Americans’. Plan and prompt accordingly.”

… AI expert Josh Kale: “Everyone’s saying OpenAI got the ‘same deal’ Anthropic was banned for. Read the fine print. They’re not the same: On weapons: Anthropic asked for ‘no fully autonomous weapons without human oversight’ - a human involved in the decision. OpenAI’s deal says ‘human responsibility for the use of force’ - someone accountable, which can happen after the fact.”

… “Oversight ≠ Responsibility. One requires a human before the trigger. The other requires a name on the paperwork after. On surveillance: Anthropic said explicitly: current law hasn’t caught up with AI. The govt can already buy your movement data, browsing history, etc without a warrant. AI can assemble that into a complete picture of your life, at scale. That’s mass surveillance without breaking a single law.”

… “Anthropic wanted protections beyond current law. OpenAI’s deal says the Pentagon ‘reflects them in law and policy.’ That’s existing law as the safeguard, the exact law Anthropic said is insufficient. Same words. Different agreements. Read them carefully.”

… NYT: “You may never have heard of Alexis Wilkins, but she is one of the best-protected country music singers in the US. FBI tactical agents have ferried her to a resort in Britain before a dinner at Windsor Castle and to an appointment at a hair salon in Nashville. Last April, agents in two SUVs stood guard outside a senior center in Ronald Reagan’s boyhood home of Dixon, IL, while she sang for a few dozen young conservatives.”

… Wilkins is the girlfriend of Kash Patel, whose personal use of govt jets and FBI agents for himself and Wilkins has led to growing questions even inside the Trump admin. Wilkins is escorted in her travels by SWAT team members drawn from FBI field offices around the country. Patel’s demand that rotating SWAT teams provide his girlfriend with security for singing appearances, personal engagements and errands is unprecedented in the FBI.”

… Soon after becoming FBI director, Patel beefed up staffing in Nashville, where Wilkins lives, then assigned a SWAT team composed of 4 agents and two vehicles to protect her full-time. Christopher O’Leary, a former senior executive in the FBI’s counterterrorism division: “If you want to be a celebrity or a social media star, get your own security. The inappropriateness of this cannot be overstated.”