This Weekend in Politics, Bulletin 156

… After the US bombed nuclear sites in Iran, Joint Chiefs Chair Dan Caine gave a summary of the attack at a press conference this morning where he announced that over 125 US aircraft were involved, the lead B2 dropped two GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bunker buster bombs on Fordo, other B2s dropped 14 MOPs against two other sites, and a US sub launched 24 Tomahawk missiles at the Isfahan.

… SecDef Pete Hegseth was also at the press conference, and he spent most of his time praising Trump’s genius: “The operation that President Trump planned was bold and brilliant. Many presidents have dreamed of delivering the final blow to Iran’s nuclear program, and none could until President Trump. I want to give congratulations to our Commander-in-Chief. It was an honor to watch him lead last night.”

… Hegseth was asked if there is now a possibility that Iran, North Korea, and other countries like China could join forces and retaliate. Hegseth: “Unfortunately, because of the policies of the previous administration, we drove those countries together.”

… N. Korea has been a client state of China for 80 years. It only exists because of China. China and Iran have steadily built economic and military ties with each other since the 1990s, including during the 1st Trump admin when they did joint naval exercises for the first time. But, of course, once again, this is all Biden’s fault.

… Trump made an all-caps post on Truth Social declaring total victory: “This is an HISTORIC MOMENT FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, ISRAEL, AND THE WORLD. IRAN MUST NOW AGREE TO END THIS WAR. THANK YOU!”

… Sec of State Marco Rubio on Fox: “This is not a war against Iran. By playing games with Donald Trump they made a big mistake. Countries putting out public statements condemning us privately agree with us - they all know this needed to be done.”

I decided to do something different today and make this entire Bulletin about one subject since it is so important and dominated the news this weekend. I wanted to put together the most comprehensive and detailed summary of all the angles of this and there simply was not time and space to do anything else.

… Russian state media outlet RT seemed upset when photos posted by the WH from the Situation Room did not show “their girl” Tulsi Gabbard present: “WH posts situation room while bombing Iran. No sign of Tulsi.”

… Russia expert Michael Weiss: “In fact, Tulsi Gabbard was in the Situation Room, but Russian state propaganda seemed very concerned with a photograph suggesting she was not.”

… Trump and Netanyahu took turns praising each other in their public statements. Trump: “I want to thank and congratulate PM Bibi Netanyahu. We worked as a team like perhaps no team has ever worked before.”

… Netanyahu: “Congratulations, President Trump. Your bold decision to target Iran's nuclear facilities with the awesome and righteous might of the US will change history.”

… Then Trump gave a shout-out to God for the bombings: “I just want to thank everyone—in particular, God. We love you God.”

… Rep. Randy Fine (R-Tel Aviv): “I believe God saved Donald Trump’s life so that he could save the world.”

… George Conway commented on Trump’s statement, where he struggled to read the teleprompter at times: “He looks scared. I would be too if I were president and had no idea what I was doing.”

… Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi: “Last week, we were in negotiations with the US when Israel decided to blow up that diplomacy. This week, we held talks with the E3/EU when the US decided to blow up that diplomacy. What conclusion would you draw? To Britain and the EU High Rep, it is Iran which must ‘return’ to the table. But how can Iran return to something it never left, let alone blew up?”

… There are multiple media reports that Araghchi is flying to Moscow today for consultations and will meet with Putin tomorrow.

… But despite Trump and Hegseth’s bravado that the Iranian nuke program was completely destroyed, Caine and other US officials candidly admitted that they have no idea right now if that is the case. Caine was asked if he can confirm that Iran’s nuke program was destroyed by the bombings: “I think the Bomb Damage Assessment is still pending and it would be way too early for me to comment on what may or may not still be there.”

… Times of Israel: “Iranian state media confirms that the Islamic Republic’s Isfahan, Natanz and Fordo nuclear sites were attacked by ‘enemy strikes.’ The IRIB state broadcaster claims the sites along with their enriched uranium stockpiles were evacuated beforehand.”

… The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran: “This assures the great Iranian nation that despite the evil conspiracies of its enemies, with the efforts of thousands of its revolutionary and motivated scientists and experts, it will not allow the development of this national industry to be stopped.”

… Amwaj Media (covers Gulf countries) confirmed other reports that the US notified Iran ahead of time: “A high-ranking Iranian political source confirmed that the Trump admin on June 21 conveyed that it did not seek an all-out confrontation, and only intended to strike the Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz nuclear sites. Importantly, the senior source also confirmed that the targeted sites were evacuated, with ‘most’ of Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium kept in secure locations.”

… “Given that Iran is said to have received prior notice along with a private communication from the US that it does not seek a broader conflict, it could be that Trump seeks a repeat of the events of Jan. 2020. The latter entailed a largely symbolic Iranian ballistic missile attack on American bases in Iraq over Trump’s authorization of the assassination of then-Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani.”

… “Non-symbolical options at the disposal of Iran include measures such as exiting the NPT, expelling foreign inspectors, striking Israel’s Dimona nuclear facility and interrupting maritime transit in the Strait of Hormuz—possibility in coordination with Yemen’s Ansarullah movement resuming operations in the Red Sea. The likelihood that no US military bases in the region were used makes it more difficult for Iran to attack such facilities in at least Gulf Arab states. This leaves American bases in Iraq, which are already largely evacuated, the most probable targets for immediate retaliation.”

As always, we make the entire Weekend Bulletins available to free subscribers while about 30% of the rest of the daily ones during the week are available. Thank you to all the free subscribers who read and share my work, and the paid subscribers who make it possible.

If you missed Friday’s Bulletin, you can find it here.

… Rubio was asked on Fox if he expected Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz to disrupt oil transportation: "If they do that, it will be another terrible mistake. It's economic suicide for them if they do it, and we retain options to deal with that."

… Satellite imagery analyst Ben Macales: “When analyzing the penetration points on the site schematic of Fordow, it is evident that they were carefully selected to target the facility’s main corridors. These corridors are located beneath the thickest rock layer and are where uranium enrichment activities take place. As of now, it is not possible to determine whether the bombs penetrated the dozens of meters of rock and reached their intended targets.”

… JD Vance was on Meet the Press today: “Q - Do you have 100% confidence that Iran's nuclear sites were totally destroyed? Vance: I feel confident that we've substantially delayed their development of a nuclear weapon. Welker: Substantially delayed by years? Vance: I'm not going to get into sensitive intelligence here, but I think that we have really pushed their program back by a very long time.”

… At least two weeks.

… Tom Clarke, Science & Tech Editor for Sky News: “Precisely shaping uranium metal and making shaped explosive charges to crush it in the right way to achieve ‘criticality’, the spark for the sub-atomic chain reaction that releases the terrifying energy in a nuclear explosion, is the element Iran has been working on for two decades.”

… “But unlike the industrial processes needed to enrich uranium, these later steps can be carried out in laboratory-sized facilities. Easier to pack up and move, and easier to hide from prying eyes. Given that it's understood Iran already moved enriched uranium out of Fordow ahead of the US strike, it's far from certain that Iran has, in fact, lost its ability to make a bomb. And while the strikes may have delayed the logistics, it's possible they've emboldened a threatened Iran to intensify its warhead-making capability if it does still have one.”

… Fox Chief Nat Sec Correspondent Jennifer Griffin: “I am told by experts that the underground tunnel at Isfahan is a MUCH harder target than Fordow and it is not clear whether the Tomahawks were able to destroy it. ‘There is no way they got in that tunnel It’s deeper than Qom - and harder rock,’ well placed source tells Fox. IAEA inspectors reported multiple times it was used for storage of UF6. (UF6 was one of the large precursor materials to make enriched uranium, but there was no enrichment going on inside of that mountain.) But it’s important that the UF6 (uranium hexafluoride) be accounted for and eventually removed. Isfahan is where Iran also manufactured centrifuges.”

… Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA) on CNN: “We simply don't know what is going to occur— whether Iran will retaliate, whether Iran was able to evacuate some of the enriched material. There were commercial satellite images of trucks lined up at Fordo and leaving in the days preceding the strike.”

… Counter-terrorism expert Alex Plitsas: “It took Iran 5 days to respond with ballistic missiles after the US killed Qassem Solemani in a strike. Iran may take its time again.”

… Intelligence and foreign policy analyst Malcolm Nance: “If Trump thinks this is one and done, he’s fooling himself. This war has only just begun.”

… Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev: “What have the Americans accomplished with their nighttime strikes on 3 nuclear sites in Iran? Critical infrastructure of the nuclear fuel cycle appears to have been unaffected or sustained only minor damage. The enrichment of nuclear material and, now we can say it outright, the future production of nuclear weapons, will continue. A number of countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads. At this rate, Trump can forget about the Nobel Peace Prize. What a way to kick things off, Mr. President. Congratulations!”

… Historian Timothy Snyder: “5 things to remember about war: 1. Many things reported with confidence in the first hours and days will turn out not to be true 2. Whatever they say, the people who start wars are often thinking chiefly about domestic politics 3. The rationale given for a war will change over time, such that actual success or failure in achieving a named objective is less relevant than one might think 4. Wars are unpredictable 5. Wars are easy to start and hard to stop.”

… The International Atomic Energy Agency: “Following attacks on three nuclear sites in Iran - including Fordow - the IAEA can confirm that no increase in off-site radiation levels has been reported as of this time. IAEA will provide further assessments on situation in Iran as more information becomes available.”

… Tom Nichols, retired professor from the US Naval War College: “Trump is saying that all the sites have been completely obliterated and that there could be more strikes, without knowing whether those sites have truly been obliterated, and after his White House promised no more strikes to Iran through backchannels.”

… Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) on Fox: "America was lied into a war in 2002 against Iraq with a Republican admin giving us false information about Iraq's weapons program. I have grave concern that we're going down the same path. There was no imminent threat to the United States. It was an offensive war of choice."

… Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) on CBS: “First of all, the tragedy in this country is that we keep entering these overseas wars, we triumphantly declare the mission is accomplished the day after and then we're left with the consequences for decades.”

… Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) isn’t satisfied with bombing nuke sites, he wants regime change. Q: Netanyahu has signaled that Israelis want to carry out regime change. Would you support that? Graham: "If I were Israel, I would have done it a long time ago."

… Director General of the IAEA Rafael Grossi said on CNN that they disagreed with Trump and Netanyahu’s claim that Iran was building a nuclear bomb: “I indicated very clearly that we did not have elements to prove that Iran had a plan or a systematic effort towards a nuclear weapon.”

… JD Vance was asked why he didn’t believe the US intelligence community, who said that Iran was not actively working on a bomb and was at least 3 years away from being able to produce one if they did: “Of course we trust our intelligence community, but we also trust our instincts.”

… Rep. Jim Himes (D-CT) on CNN: “I had not seen any intelligence, as a member of the Gang of Eight, to suggest that Iran had taken the decision to build a weapon. I don't think there's any intelligence out there that suggests that that's true.”

… Fox: “The Iranian Parliament approves closure of Strait of Hormuz, pending final decision by Supreme National Security Council, according to reports from Iran.” That is one of the major shipping lanes for oil in the world.

… Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard posted on social media: “Now the war has begun for us."

… Jerusalem Post: “A commentator on Iranian state television stated that every American civilian or military personnel in the region just became a legitimate target.”

… The Times of India: “Iranian State TV aired a bold warning to US President Donald Trump - ‘Mr. Trump, you started it, we will end it.’”

… Intelligence Committee Ranking Member Jim Himes: “There is another worse option, which is that the Iranians go silent for the next 3-6 months during which time they assemble a weapon. We don’t know if they managed to move the uranium.“

… Right-wing podcaster Charlie Kirk and others are already preemptively blaming Biden if Iran retaliates with terrorism: “Stay armed. Stay vigilant. We have no idea how many sleeper cells are inside the US. It’s an unforgivable weakness Biden left this country with. Stay alert. Pray.”

… Shortly before the attack, Reuters reported a statement from Houthi’s spokesman Yahya Saree in Yemen: "We will target US ships and battleships in the Red Sea if Washington participates in the attack on Iran."

… Lt. Gen (Ret) Mark Hertling: “What concerns me tonight? The safety of 30k US troops in the Middle East, cybersecurity (CISA was recently gutted) and homeland security (HLS is focused on immigration), economic strength (oil prices and tariffs), allied assistance and intelligence flow (we’ll need that now more than ever), domestic intelligence (leadership at FBI/DNI).”

… Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT): “Donald Trump, a weak and dangerously reckless president, has put the US on a path to a war in the Middle East that the country does not want, the law does not allow, and our security does not demand. Our president knows nothing about history. And history tells us that the US's hubris about the efficacy of military action in the Middle East is almost universally wrong. Trump has been goaded into these strikes by the perpetual cheerleaders of war in the Middle East - the people who know how to start conflicts there but never know how to end them, and the people who profit - politically and financially - from endless war.”

… Murphy: “I was briefed on the intelligence last week. Iran posed no imminent threat of attack to the US. Iran was not close to building a deliverable nuclear weapon. The negotiations Israel scuttled with their strikes held the potential for success. The context matters. We know - for certain - there is a diplomatic path to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. The Obama agreement was working. And as late as a week ago, Iran was back at the table again. Which makes this attack - with all its enormous risks - so reckless.”

… Rand Paul’s senior advisor Doug Stafford: “According to sources, the VP, SecDef and DNI advised against getting involved. Why have them if you’re not going to listen to them?”

… Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY): “Donald Trump shoulders complete and total responsibility for any adverse consequences that flow from his unilateral military action.”

… CNN: “Top Democrats on the intelligence committees were kept in the dark. Their Republican counterparts were briefed, even though they all are members of the Gang of Eight, who are usually almost always notified before major US military engagements.”

… With his MAGA base deeply divided over the bombings, Trump posted this obvious lie today: “Great unity in the Republican Party, perhaps unity like we have never seen before.”

… MAGA social media influencer ‘Texas Patriot’: “False. MAGA is divided more than ever now.”

… Actor and MAGA activist Kevin Sorbo, who was opposed to the attack, posted this to his 2.5 million followers: “Is this what you voted for?”

… Rep. Marge Greene (R-GA): “Every time America is on the verge of greatness, we get involved in another foreign war. There would not be bombs falling on the people of Israel if Netanyahu had not dropped bombs on the people of Iran first. Israel is a nuclear armed nation. This is not our fight. Peace is the answer. Let us pray that we are not attacked by terrorists on our homeland.”

… Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) on NBC: “I'll concede it was a good week for the neocons who want war all the time. I wouldn't call my side of the MAGA base isolationists, we're exhausted, we're tired from all of these wars. This was one of the promises of his campaign. He promised we would put America first.”

… Massie posted on X: “When two countries are bombing each other daily in a hot war, and a third country joins the bombing, that’s an act of war. I’m amazed at the mental gymnastics being undertaken by neocons in DC (and their social media bots) to say we aren’t at war … so they can make war.”

… Trump attacked Massie on Truth Social after the appearance: “Thomas Massie is not MAGA, even though he likes to say he is. Actually, MAGA doesn’t want him, doesn’t know him, and doesn’t respect him. He is a negative force who almost always Votes ‘NO,’ no matter how good something may be. He’s a simple minded ‘grandstander’. Massie is weak, ineffective, and votes ‘NO’ on virtually everything put before him (Rand Paul, Jr.), no matter how good something may be.”

… Trump then said he’s going to do everything he can to defeat Massie next year: “MAGA should drop this pathetic LOSER, Tom Massie, like the plague! The good news is that we will have a wonderful American Patriot running against him in the Republican Primary, and I’ll be out in KY campaigning really hard. MAGA is not about lazy, grandstanding, nonproductive politicians, of which Thomas Massie is definitely one.”

… Colin Clarke from Soufan Group, which is global security consultant for professionals in high-risk countries: “Just got this message from a friend and rabid Trump supporter: ‘That speech came across as 'Israel First.' not America First.’”

… Former FL State Rep Anthony Sabatini: “I voted for mass deportations and domestic reform, not to be the world police. Currently deportations are rock bottom LOW - around 350 a day. Meanwhile, the GOP is spending all of its efforts meddling in Middle Eastern affairs. This does not serve the American interest whatsoever.”

… Right-wing podcaster Kim Iversen: “For the first time ever I’ll be voting straight Democrat in the midterms just to signal my absolute disgust with this administration’s betrayal. Our only power is to keep handing loses to each side when they fail us. At some point they’ll get the message.”

… But JD Vance told NBC that MAGA should learn to love new wars because now a genius like Trump is in charge: “I empathize with Americans who are exhausted after 25 years of foreign entanglements in the Middle East. I understand the concern, but the difference is that back then we had dumb presidents.”

… Right-wing podcaster Shannon Joy: “My theory was that MAGA is a psyop and Trump is a Trojan Horse. I was right. Called it 10 years ago.”

… Right-wing podcaster Mike Adams: “MAGA is now officially dead. Everything MAGA people voted for has been betrayed by Trump. It's over.”

… Alex Jones: “The US is now at war with Iran. Trump’s actions last night have escalated the conflict into an area of unprecedented danger.”

… Vance continued to make arguments to appeal to his divided MAGA base when he was asked if we are at war with Iran. Vance: “No, we are at war with Iran’s nuclear program.”

… Right-wing podcaster Myron Gaines: “Anyone that is cheering this attack on Iran is grossly unaware of proper foreign policy, the deep and nefarious influence the Israel lobby has, and is a MAGA shill. I voted for Trump, and he betrayed me, and millions of others. We voted for NO NEW WARS, strong borders, immigration control, and to make America great again. Instead, we got a war in the middle east, deportations of legal college students critical of Israel, and a high likelihood of economic downturn. We just made Israel great at the cost of America becoming great again. I wonder how many big rightwing political commentators will have the balls to call out the Trump's admin’s reckless foreign policy for Israel?”

… Chris Rossini with Ron Paul Leadership Institute: “Didn’t shrink the government or drain the swamp, increasing government spending, deficits and debt, taxed us with tariffs, started war with Iran. What a disaster of a president.”

… Like Trump said, they’ve never been more unified.

… But he had his army of paid MAGA shills on social media cranking out post after post for 36 hours that this was only about nuke deterrence and not regime change to try and talk them of the ledge. Then Trump brilliantly wrecked everything they were trying to do by undercutting them with this post: “It’s not politically correct to use the term, ‘Regime Change,’ but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!”

… I don’t think ‘Make Iran Great Again’ is what they voted for.

… Former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul: “HW Bush had the support of both the Congress (majority votes in both houses) and the UNSC before he launched his attack against Iraq in 1991. Clinton won the support of NATO allies, who voted unanimously to endorse US air strikes against Serbia in 1999. W. Bush had the support of both the Senate (77-23) and the House (296-133) to invade Iraq in 2003. Obama secured the passage of 2 UN Security resolutions to authorize the use of force against Libya in 2011. Yesterday, Trump did not secure the support of any body - not the UN Security Council, not NATO, not the US Congress - to authorize his decision to attack Iran.”

… Rep. AOC (D-NY): “The President’s disastrous decision to bomb Iran without authorization is a grave violation of the Constitution and Congressional War Powers. He has impulsively risked launching a war that may ensnare us for generations. It is absolutely and clearly grounds for impeachment.”

… Garry Kasparov: “Asking anti-Trumpers like me to praise him for taking precarious action they favor is like asking for applause for a blind surgeon for successfully removing a heart when he still has to put in the new one. Yes, this gets at why even a necessary action comes with so much concern beyond the hostilities themselves. Trump is impulsive, never considers the long term, and has surrounded himself with sycophants and incompetents. He’s used to just creating a shiny new crisis tomorrow.”

… As Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) informed his rally crowd in Tulsa about the bombing as the news broke, it erupted in chants of “No More War!”

… Pope Leo XIV: "Alarming news continues to emerge from the Middle East, especially from Iran. Against this tragic backdrop, which includes Israel and Palestine, people’s daily suffering, especially in Gaza and the other territories, where the need for adequate humanitarian aid is becoming increasingly urgent, risks being forgotten."

… A conservative estimate of the cost of the US strike based on the weapons and fuel used: $203 million.