Hi all, Ben here. It’s Thursday afternoon, and I want to walk you through what’s been going on since my morning message.
Let’s start with the big picture: Donald Trump is cracking under the pressure of a war he started and clearly doesn’t understand how to manage.
You can see it in the policy whiplash. You can see it in the messaging chaos. And you can see it in the consequences that are now hitting global markets, energy supply, and everyday people.
Trump has now signaled that he’s willing to remove sanctions on Iranian oil. This is the same administration that brought us to war, and now, as oil prices surge to $120 a barrel, they’re effectively rewarding the very regime they claim to be confronting. Every single move appears to be rooted not in any sort of coherent strategy, but in panic. Treasury officials are openly talking about releasing Iranian oil into the market to bring prices down, while at the same time the administration is telling you this war is under control. If it were under control, they wouldn’t be scrambling like this. And right now, everything is pointing in one direction: instability.
Meanwhile, the Pentagon is asking for more than $200 billion in additional funding. Two hundred billion dollars. That’s the number being floated to “refill” munitions and continue operations. Think about that for a second. We were told investing a fraction of that in healthcare was too expensive. Americans were told to tighten their belts. But now, suddenly, there’s unlimited money for a war that didn’t need to happen. Pete Hegseth justified it by saying “it takes a lot of money to kill bad guys.” That’s the pitch.
What about keeping Americans alive? What about lowering costs? What about the people who are already struggling as inflation spikes again because of this conflict Those questions don’t even get asked in their world, because they simply do not care about the pain the average American is feeling right now.
Hegseth also said that U.S. allies and the media are “ungrateful” and should be “thankful” that the U.S. started this war: “The world, the Middle East, our ungrateful allies in Europe, even segments of our own press should be saying one thing to President Trump: Thank you.”
And while they’re asking you for $200 billion more, the damage from this escalation is already spreading globally. After the U.S. and Israel struck Iran’s South Pars gas field, Iran retaliated by hitting Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City. That’s one of the most critical liquefied natural gas hubs on the planet. We’re now learning that roughly 17 percent of Qatar’s LNG export capacity has been impacted, and parts of that infrastructure could take years to repair. Within 24 hours, a meaningful chunk of global LNG capacity has been disrupted. That affects energy prices. That affects supply chains. That affects everything from electricity costs to fertilizer to basic goods. And yet, Trump is out there pretending he had nothing to do with the initial strikes, trying to pin it all on Netanyahu as if his own officials didn’t already take credit for the military action.
Side note: I’m often asked where I go to do research for my reporting. One of the main research tools I use is called Ground News. Ground News shows me how stories are being covered from different political perspectives, and it highlights “blindspots” where only left-wing or right-wing media is covering a story.
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Now back to my report.
At the same time, Iran is adapting quickly. They’re not folding. They’re not collapsing. In fact, they’re monetizing the situation. Iran is now controlling access through the Strait of Hormuz by approving select vessels and charging massive fees for passage. Reports indicate tankers are paying millions just to get through. So instead of losing leverage, Iran is consolidating it. That’s the reality on the ground.
Now contrast that with what Trump and his team are saying publicly. You’ve got Treasury officials claiming the Iranian regime is on the verge of collapse. Then you’ve got intelligence testimony from just a day earlier saying the regime is still intact, still unified, and still capable of attacking U.S. interests. Those two things cannot both be true.
You’ve got Trump saying Iran has been “demolished,” while military leadership is acknowledging that Iran still has ballistic missiles and is actively using them. Again, both cannot be true. Trump just told the press: “The [Iranian] Navy is gone, air force is gone, anti-aircraft equipment is gone. We’re flying where we want, we have nobody shooting at us.” He said this moments after news broke that a U.S. F-35 fighter jet was struck by Iranian fire and forced to make an emergency landing. We are hearing as of now that the pilot is in stable condition. What you’re seeing is a government that is not aligned internally, not aligned with reality, and not being honest with the public.
While all of this is happening, while global energy markets are shaking and supply chains are at risk, Trump is posting about sneakers selling for $180,000 in Riyadh and complaining about windmills in California.
I’m not exaggerating. That’s where his focus is. Here’s a real image from his social media feed today:
He’s sitting there during a major international crisis, and instead of demonstrating leadership, he’s rambling about wind turbines and bragging about luxury merchandise tied to his brand.
And it gets worse.
During his Oval Office meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Trump made an appalling comment that led to audible groans in the room. When asked why allies weren’t informed before the Iran strikes, Trump responded by invoking Pearl Harbor.
Reporter: Why didn't you tell allies about the war before attacking Iran?
Trump: We wanted it to be a surprise. Who knows better about surprise than Japan? Why didn't you tell me about Pearl Harbor?
You could immediately see the discomfort on the Japanese Prime Minister’s face. In that same meeting, Trump was demanding that Japan “step up” while simultaneously saying the United States doesn’t need anything from them or other allies. He was attacking NATO for not helping enough, while admitting he didn’t want their help after the fact. And while bragging that he couldn’t tell anyone about the strikes before they happened because they had to be a surprise. It’s incoherent.
And while he’s making these comments, the real-world consequences are piling up. Airlines are now warning about potential cancellations due to jet fuel shortages tied to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Long-haul flights could be especially impacted because planes may not be able to secure fuel for return trips. That’s how this starts to hit everyday life.
It’s not just about oil prices on a chart. It’s about whether flights get canceled. It’s about whether goods arrive. It’s about whether costs go up across the board. And we’re already seeing it.
On top of that, broader supply chains are at risk. Fertilizer production is tied to the region. Other critical materials are tied to the region. When you destabilize this part of the world, you don’t just trigger a military response. You trigger economic ripple effects that spread everywhere. And through all of this, the administration’s message to you is essentially: everything is fine, and if it’s not, other countries have it worse. JD Vance told an audience in Michigan yesterday that Americans should find comfort in the fact that our allies are “suffering more than we are” from high gas prices. They’re literally telling Americans not to worry because people overseas are hurting more.
Meanwhile, the national debt just crossed $39 trillion. It was $38 trillion just months ago. We’re now adding roughly a trillion dollars every couple of months under this administration. But sure, $200 billion more for war is “a small price to pay.” Who needs healthcare or housing? That’s the mindset.
If you want to understand how fast the U.S. has fallen, a new poll from POLITICO with Public First shows that every single of the top allies of the U.S. now thinks it is better to depend on China than the United States under Trump.
Let me be very clear about where this is heading if nothing changes, and many of these things are already unavoidable due to the time it will take to rebuild facilities destroyed in the war. You’re looking at prolonged instability in global energy markets. You’re looking at higher costs for consumers. You’re looking at strained supply chains. You’re looking at increased risk of broader conflict. And you’re looking at a president who is visibly overwhelmed, lashing out, contradicting his own officials, and making reckless statements on the world stage.
This didn’t have to happen. In a guest essay in The Economist, Oman’s foreign minister who mediated the discussions between the U.S. and Iran said the U.S. “has lost control of its foreign policy” to Israel. And now we’re all dealing with the consequences. He said the "greatest miscalculation" of all for the U.S. "was allowing itself to be drawn into this war in the first place." He slammed the U.S. for discrediting diplomacy by starting a war when a deal was in reach.
I’ll keep tracking every development and breaking it down for you as it unfolds. I’ll also be releasing longer reports on Trump’s meeting with the Japanese PM and on today’s hearings with intelligence officials on our YouTube channel.
Stay informed, stay engaged, and I’ll see you soon.
