Thursday Afternoon News Updates — 3/26/26

Hi all, Ben here. It’s Thursday, and the situation around the world is intensifying quickly and Donald Trump is looking increasingly desperate by the minute. I’m going to try something a bit different today. Today’s midday recap will be entirely written, as opposed to including a video. Please feel free to let me know your thoughts in the comments.

Later today, Ron Filipkowski will publish his full bulletin with the entire day’s news, so stay tuned.

I’d also like to highlight this morning’s report for MeidasTouch’s new Chief Washington Correspondent, Scott MacFarlane. Scott reported on the Justice Department settling with Michael Flynn, continuing its streak of handing Trump allies millions of dollars in taxpayer money. You can watch his morning report here and follow Scott on Substack here.

Now let’s get into it.

Donald Trump woke up and unleashed a barrage of posts claiming that Iran is “begging” him for a deal. That claim is not just exaggerated, it’s completely disconnected from what’s actually happening. Iran’s foreign minister has already made clear that there are no negotiations underway and no intention to engage with the United States. So while Trump is trying to create the impression that he has leverage, Iran is publicly shutting the door on him. At the same time, Trump lashed out at NATO in an all-caps tirade, accusing allies of doing nothing to help the United States, while also insisting that America doesn’t need any help at all. The contradictions don’t seem to matter. The messaging isn’t aimed at clarity, it’s aimed at projecting dominance, even as events on the ground continue to spiral in a far more dangerous direction.

Because while Trump is posting, the reality is that tensions are escalating significantly across the region. Iran is warning that the United States and a regional ally may be preparing to seize Kharg Island, which is one of the most critical oil hubs in the world, handling roughly 90 percent of Iran’s crude exports. Iran has already moved additional troops and air defenses into position there, and officials are warning that any country assisting the United States in such an operation would face what they describe as relentless retaliation. This is the kind of language that signals a readiness to escalate quickly and dramatically if certain lines are crossed.

At the same time, Iranian strikes have already had a major impact on U.S. military operations in the region. Several American bases have reportedly been rendered largely unusable, forcing the relocation and dispersal of roughly 40,000 troops. Some of those forces have been moved to Europe, while others are operating from improvised locations, including hotels, essentially running operations remotely under strained conditions. That is a far cry from the picture of total control that Trump is trying to paint.

The risks extend well beyond direct military confrontation. Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement is now signaling that it is prepared to resume attacks on the Red Sea, and that carries enormous implications for global trade. The Red Sea is one of the most important shipping corridors in the world, and renewed attacks there could disrupt supply chains and energy flows almost immediately. Combined with the already heightened tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran effectively influences, the possibility of simultaneous disruptions at two of the world’s most critical maritime choke points is becoming increasingly real. These are the kinds of developments that can send shockwaves through global markets in a matter of days.

We are already seeing the economic impact begin to take shape. The OECD now projects that U.S. inflation could rise to 4.2 percent, with G20 nations averaging around 4 percent, driven by the escalating war and energy disruptions. Mortgage rates have climbed for the fourth consecutive week, reaching 6.38 percent, putting additional pressure on homebuyers and the broader housing market. The U.S. Postal Service is preparing to implement an 8 percent fuel surcharge on packages as costs tied to the war increase, which means Americans will feel this not just at the pump, but in everyday expenses like shipping and goods. Major corporations are responding as well. TotalEnergies has evacuated approximately 1,300 personnel from across the Middle East, including operations in the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq, leaving only essential local staff behind.

Back in Washington, the strain is showing in other ways. The Pentagon is now considering diverting weapons originally intended for Ukraine to the Middle East, highlighting the pressure this war is placing on U.S. military resources, despite Trump’s claims that our munitions are “unlimited.” At the same time, Republicans continue to block funding for TSA operations, leading to long lines at airports across the country amid the ongoing DHS shutdown. So while Americans are dealing with real disruptions at home, Trump is spending his time attacking Democrats, threatening to eliminate the filibuster, and veering into unrelated culture war topics instead of focusing on stabilizing the situation or ensuring basic government functions are maintained. It appears there are Republicans willing to vote with Democrats on a standalone bill to fund TSA, but as of now Trump is demanding they don’t do any deals with the Democrats. So here we are.

On the military front, there are growing indications that the United States is preparing for a possible ground operation. Thousands of additional troops, including marine expeditionary units and special operations forces, are being deployed to the region, and reports suggest that key elements are being positioned in ways that indicate a potential escalation in the coming weeks. Iranis reportedly preparing up to one million troops in anticipation of a possible invasion, which underscores just how serious both sides are taking the possibility of a broader conflict. Inside Iran, there is also a dangerous shift underway. Hardliners are increasingly vocal about pursuing a nuclear weapon, and with the Revolutionary Guards now holding greater influence, those calls are gaining traction.

Israel is also facing significant pressure as Iranian strikes intensify. People there have expressed shock at the scale and ferocity of the response, and behind closed doors, concerns are mounting about sustainability. A leaked recording from an Israeli cabinet meeting reveals the chief of staff warning that the military is nearing a breaking point, with reserve forces stretched to their limits and questions emerging about the ability to maintain even routine operations if the conflict continues at its current pace.

At the same time, earlier hopes that the conflict might trigger internal unrest within Iran have faded. U.S. and Israeli officials now believe the Iranian regime remains firmly in control, leading to a shift in strategy toward degrading military capabilities rather than expecting internal collapse. That adjustment reflects a recognition that initial assumptions about the trajectory of the conflict have not played out as anticipated.

The humanitarian toll continues to grow rapidly. Millions of people have been displaced, including 3.2 million inside Iran alone, along with one million in Lebanon. More than 158,000 people have fled from Lebanon into Syria, and tens of thousands more have sought refuge in Turkey. These numbers represent a massive and ongoing crisis that is affecting families, communities, and entire regions, and it is only expected to worsen if the conflict expands further.

At the same time, the broader geopolitical landscape is shifting in ways that benefit adversaries. Russia, for example, is seeing a surge in oil revenues as prices rise due to the conflict, providing a significant financial boost that helps sustain its own military efforts elsewhere. European officials are already warning that this dynamic is undermining efforts to constrain Russia and is creating new challenges for global stability. So while the United States is stretched in one region, the ripple effects are strengthening other actors in ways that complicate the global balance of power.

And through all of this, Trump continues to operate in his own reality. He held a cabinet meeting where he talked about cognitive tests, bragged about his intelligence, and whined about NATO, all while the situation on the ground grows more dangerous. He has also overseen the redirection of billions of dollars in foreign aid away from disaster relief and peacekeeping efforts to fund his own policy priorities, even as global instability increases.

Meanwhile, some Republican lawmakers are downplaying the risks, describing potential escalation scenarios in casual terms that fail to capture the gravity of what is unfolding. The decisions being made right now have real consequences for global security, economic stability, and human lives.

So when you step back and look at the full picture, what you see is a rapidly escalating conflict with global implications, economic pressures building at home, military and strategic risks increasing abroad, and leadership that is more focused on perception than reality. That combination is deeply concerning, and it is something we all need to be paying close attention to as events continue to unfold.

Thanks for reading. I hope you enjoyed this written report, and again, please let me know in the comments. Spread the word and stay informed.