It’s Thursday afternoon, and as we head toward the end of the week, there is a lot happening around the world that you need to know about. The situation surrounding the war with Iran continues to spiral, and the ripple effects are spreading across global markets, international alliances, and the humanitarian landscape. Let me quickly walk you through the latest updates and where things stand right now. Thanks to all our subscribers for making our reporting possible.
First, we’re seeing a series of developments at sea and across the region that underscore just how volatile this situation has become. New footage surfaced showing the moment the Marshall Islands–flagged tanker M/T SAFESEA VISHNU, which is owned by a U.S. company, was struck by what appears to be an Iranian unmanned surface vehicle off the coast of Basra. The explosion caused a massive fire at sea. This follows a pattern we’ve been watching for days now—commercial vessels increasingly becoming targets in waters that are among the most important shipping lanes in the world.
At the same time, smoke was seen rising near the U.S. Consulate in Erbil in northern Iraq following a drone attack attributed to Iran.
There was also an incident aboard the USS Gerald R. Ford, the most expensive aircraft carrier ever built by the United States. According to the Navy, a fire broke out in the ship’s main laundry spaces while the carrier was operating in the Red Sea as part of Operation Epic Fury. The fire was contained, and officials say it was not combat related. Two sailors were injured but are reportedly in stable condition. The ship remains fully operational.
Still, the optics are striking. The Gerald R. Ford cost roughly $13.3 billion to build and carries a crew of about 4,500 sailors. It has been deployed for about nine months, far longer than the typical six-month deployment cycle, and analysts say the relentless operational tempo is putting enormous strain on both equipment and personnel.
Meanwhile, oil prices are surging and markets are reacting to the instability. Instead of expressing concern about rising costs for Americans, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social celebrating the price spikes. In his message, Trump argued that higher oil prices are good because the United States is the largest oil producer in the world and therefore “makes a lot of money” when prices rise. He framed the surge as a positive development while insisting the war is necessary to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. For Americans paying more at the pump, that message is likely to land very differently. But good for Trump’s wealthy oil baron friends, I guess.
Trump also posted a statement about the Iranian national soccer team and the upcoming World Cup. In it, he said the team would be “welcome,” but added that he did not believe it was appropriate for them to participate “for their own life and safety.”
While Trump’s rhetoric continues to escalate, the war itself is proving extremely costly. According to the Pentagon, the first week of the conflict alone cost more than $11 billion. By the two-week mark, estimates suggest the total price tag is approaching $25 billion.
For comparison, the one-year extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies that Republicans recently refused to support would have cost roughly $28 billion. Sometimes it’s important to put things in perspective.
In response to the surge in oil prices, the administration is reportedly preparing to issue a temporary waiver of the Jones Act, which normally requires cargo shipments between U.S. ports to be carried on American-flagged vessels. The waiver would allow foreign ships to transport petroleum from Gulf Coast refineries to ports along the East and West coasts in an attempt to stabilize fuel supplies.
Even as these measures are being discussed, U.S. intelligence officials say the core strategic objective of the war, destabilizing Iran’s leadership, has not materialized. According to reporting from Reuters citing multiple sources familiar with the assessments, Iran’s leadership structure remains largely intact despite nearly two weeks of heavy bombardment by U.S. and Israeli forces.
That finding is significant because early expectations inside Washington and Jerusalem were that the opening strikes, particularly the attack that killed Iran’s longtime Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei along with dozens of senior officials, would trigger rapid internal collapse. Nearly two weeks later, that hasn’t happened.
If anything, military experts warn that attacking civilian infrastructure and populations can produce the opposite effect. During testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee today, U.S. Supreme Allied Commander in Europe General Alexus Grynkewich noted that historically, attacks on civilians tend to strengthen a population’s resolve rather than break it.
The humanitarian toll is also mounting. The United Nations now estimates that as many as 3.2 million people inside Iran have been internally displaced since the fighting began. Many are fleeing major cities like Tehran for rural areas in the north. Officials warn that number could continue to rise if the conflict intensifies.
The destruction in neighboring Lebanon is also severe. Israeli strikes overnight leveled large sections of Beirut’s southern suburbs, reducing entire blocks to rubble. Israel has expanded its evacuation zone in southern Lebanon, affecting more than 1.2 million people.
On the diplomatic front, global frustration with Washington’s strategy is increasingly visible. During a video call with leaders of the G7 nations, French President Emmanuel Macron reportedly voiced what many allies have been saying privately: no one seems to know what Trump’s endgame in this war actually is.
Even Trump’s own administration doesn’t seem to know what’s going on. Energy Secretary Chris Wright acknowledged on Fox News that a recent post from the Department of Energy claiming the U.S. Navy had successfully escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz was a lie, blaming a staffer for the inaccurate post. The message caused significant market disruption before it was deleted. Wright said he now intends to personally review such posts before they are published.
On CNBC, Wright described the economic fallout from the conflict as “short-term pain for long-term gain.”
Meanwhile, geopolitical maneuvering continues behind the scenes. The head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, Kirill Dmitriev, departed Miami this week after meeting with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. According to the Kremlin, the discussions focused on expanding economic cooperation. Reports suggest the Trump administration may be considering easing sanctions on Russian oil exports amid the turmoil in global energy markets.
Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei, delivered his first message to the Iranian people since taking power. He signaled that Iran will continue to use its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for global oil supplies, and hinted that the country could open additional fronts where its adversaries “have little experience and will be vulnerable.”
And while the fighting continues, the information war online is intensifying too. The Iranian embassy in The Hague posted a Pixar-style animation mocking Trump’s denial of responsibility for the bombing of an Iranian school in Minab. The video ends with a title card referencing Trump as “Epstein’s Client.” Around the same time, the Chinese Embassy in Washington released its own animated clip mocking Trump’s newly announced “Shield of the Americas” initiative, asking whether it represents protection—or “shackles.”
That’s where things stand as of Thursday afternoon. The war continues to expand, the costs are rising rapidly, and allies around the world are increasingly uncertain about where this is heading.
As always, we’ll keep tracking these developments closely. And if you’re following our coverage here on the MeidasTouch Network, make sure you’re subscribed to support the network and so you don’t miss the latest updates.
I’ll keep you posted as more information comes in.
