Today in Politics, Bulletin 354. 4/21/26

… Iran refused to participate in the second round of peace talks scheduled for today in Pakistan by the US. Iran never agreed to accept the invitation, and stated repeatedly that they would not participate until the US naval blockage of the Strait of Hormuz was lifted. The Trump admin issued a statement saying that the talks were “paused indefinitely.”

… JD Vance, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff planned to fly to Pakistan from Miami this morning while Trump continued to issue threats to bomb Iran’s power plants and bridges. But when Trump’s threatens couldn’t coax Iran to the bargaining table, Vance’s plane was redirected to Washington, DC. The ceasefire that Trump extended for 14 days expired tonight.

… Journalist Adam Cochran: “Vance, Witkoff and Kushner were all set to depart for Islamabad. At around 11AM we had a market sell off. We later find out Trump is hosting an ‘emergency meeting’ at the WH, where Vance’s motorcade was seen.
And the plane carrying Witkoff and Kushner departing Miami, is now en route to Washington instead of Islamabad. Something fell apart.”

… Then Trump issued a statement that he was backing down yet again from his most recent extension of his latest deadline: “Based on the fact that the Govt of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so and, upon the request of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and PM Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan, we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal.”

… “I have therefore directed our Military to continue the Blockade and, in all other respects, remain ready and able, and will therefore extend the Ceasefire until such time as their proposal is submitted, and discussions are concluded, one way or the other.”

… Reuters: Advisor to Iran’s parliament speaker and top negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said Trump's ceasefire extension is a "ploy to buy time" for a surprise strike.

… I’m sure Trump has put the US in a very strong bargaining position by issuing two ultimatums with hard deadlines only to back down both times after Iran called his bluff. Iran even said that they didn’t ask Trump to extend his ceasefire. 4-D chess from the MAGA cult leader. But it is TACO Tuesday!

… Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi: “Blockading Iranian ports is an act of war and thus a violation of the ceasefire. Striking a commercial vessel and taking its crew hostage is an even greater violation. Iran knows how to neutralize restrictions, how to defend its interests, and how to resist bullying.”

… Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaei on why they refused to show up for the talks: “The reason stems from contradictory messages, conflicting behaviors, and unacceptable actions from the American side.”

… Ray Zimmt, director of the Intl Center for Strategic Studies specializing in Iran: “As I understand it, there is no issue here of an Iranian attempt to stall for time. This is not a negotiation where time can be dragged out. The expiration date of the ceasefire is well known to everyone. There is a substantive and clear position here from the leadership in Tehran, led by the Revolutionary Guards: there will be no negotiations if the Americans do not compromise on the issue of the naval blockade.”

… “This does not necessarily mean that they want to return to fighting, but it seems they are also not afraid of it. They are also well aware of the accumulating economic damage resulting from the continuation of the naval blockade, yet they still assess that Iran has the ability to bear the economic price for at least several months, while the other side (the US, the global economy, Gulf states) has the ability to hold out for only a few more weeks.”

… “The implication is that at this stage, it seems the chance of resuming talks depends to a large extent on the Americans' willingness to at least ease the naval blockade (even if not officially) in exchange for resuming the talks, which will probably require, nevertheless, an extension of the ceasefire by at least a few more days.”

… Middle East expert Danny Citrinowitz: The events of the past 24 hours highlight the strategic impass the US has placed itself in. While Washington retains the ability to escalate militarily in the near term, the key question is what such escalation would actually achieve, beside significant disruption to the global economy.”

… “At the same time, the admin’s approach has tightened the naval blockade to a degree that leaves Iran with limited room to maneuver domestically, making it politically difficult for Tehran to engage in negotiations. As a result, the US is left with two unfavorable options: ease pressure to enable diplomacy on terms it prefers, or escalate into a broader confrontation that is unlikely to force Iranian capitulation but will almost certainly exacerbate global energy instability.”

… CNN: “Some Trump officials privately acknowledge that the president’s public commentary has been detrimental to talks, noting the sensitivity of the negotiations and the Iranians’ deep mistrust of the US. That was especially true on Friday, when the Pakistanis were in Tehran for talks with the Iranians.”

… “As the meeting played out, Trump took to Truth Social and spoke with several reporters, claiming Iran had agreed to a host of provisions that sources familiar with the talks said had not yet been finalized. He also asserted that Tehran had agreed to many of the most contentious US demands and declared an imminent end to the war.”

… Source familiar with the talks: “The Iranians didn’t appreciate POTUS negotiating through social media and making it appear as if they had signed off on issues they hadn’t yet agreed to, and ones that aren’t popular with their people back home.”

… Kobeissi Letter: BREAKING: Brent crude oil prices surge above $100/barrel as US-Iran peace talks are paused.

… Tucker Carlson did a podcast with his brother Buckley yesterday where they apologized for supporting Trump: “You wrote speeches for him, I campaigned for him. I mean, we’re implicated in this, for sure. It’s not enough to say, ‘Well I changed my mind,’ or like, ‘Oh this is bad, I’m out.’ It’s like in very small ways, but in real ways, you and me and millions of people like us are the reason this is happening right now.”

… Buckley agreed with his brother on that point. Then Tucker continued: “So I do think it’s like a moment to wrestle with our own consciences. You know, we’ll be tormented by it for a long time. I will be. And I want to say I’m sorry for misleading people, and it was not intentional. That’s all I’ll say.”

… A new Reuters/Ipsos poll has Trump’s approval at 36% with 62% disapproval, his lowest ever approval in that poll for either term.

… Time: “Republicans are now panicking about Ohio. The clearest sign came earlier this month when the Senate Leadership Fund, the outside political operation with close ties to John Thune, released its spending plan. Of a massive $342 million the group plans to spend to keep Thune in that role in 2027, the biggest amount - $79 million - is going to Ohio.”

… Senate Democrats’ super PAC spokesperson Lauren French: “This announcement is a sign Republicans are nervous, plain and simple. Their battleground map has increased substantially, and we’re seeing the tell-tale signs of weakness with bad candidates, uninspiring messaging, and an approval rating in the pits.”

… “Despite the Brink’s truck of cash backed up to the Husted campaign’s loading dock, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted the race away from the ‘Lean Republican’ status and into a true ‘Toss Up’ category last week. (At the same time, Cook moved NC and GA to ‘Lean Democrat’ from ‘Toss Up,’ and Nebraska slid from ‘Solid Republican’ to ‘Likely Republican.’ All signal trouble for GOP candidates.)”

… Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) on Dems retaking the senate: “With subpoena power, Hegseth will have to come and testify under oath about reports that his stockbroker was calling around trying to buy him defense stocks just days before the Iran war broke out. Kushner will have to testify under oath about the billions of dollars of business he was trying to do in the Middle East while he engaged in diplomacy in the region.”

… A new poll in the IA governor’s race shows Democrat Rob Sand widening his lead over Republican Randy Feenstra 51-39%. The poll also shows either Democratic candidate for senate in Iowa in a dead heat with Republican Ashley Hinson.

… Conservative Iowa talk-show host Steve Deace: “This tells you nominating Randy Feenstra could basically cost us the entire state. I’m sure Randy would be fine as governor at maintaining our successes here. But he is the absolute worst statewide establishment candidate I’ve ever seen in Iowa from either party.

… RFK Jr. had contentious hearings in the House and Senate budget committees today - this time on the new HHS budget proposal. His hands were shaking throughout much of his testimony as he was grilled by Democrats on the committees:

• Rep. Ruiz: “Bloomberg reports that Trump and the WH have benched you because you're making the president look bad. RFK Jr: That's not true. Ruiz: I think the reporting is correct. You're making the president look bad. You talked publicly about snorting cocaine off a toilet bowl seat. Your words, not mine.”

• Rep. Carter: “I really wish you’d spend more time thinking about the American people, less time talking about whale heads, bear heads, and raccoon parts. RFK Jr: I don’t talk about any of those things!”

• RFK Jr: “There's no cut in Medicaid. Rep. Landsman: Just do the math with me, then that means that they added $3.5 trillion to the deficit. You've got to find $1 trillion. You either added $1 trillion to the deficit or you cut Medicaid by $1 trillion.”

• Sen. Baldwin: “Do you think NIH should fund less cancer research? RFK Jr: No, they should fund more, and one of the few agencies that got a raise in the budget proposal was NCI. Baldwin: And that increase is less than $1 million for an institute with a $7 billion budget. That's a .01% increase. It wouldn't even cover the cost of one additional grant.”

• Rep. Auchincloss: “Now, let’s just understand why the president might have bent over to do the bidding of Joe Rogan. He has a disastrous war in Iran that has led even his most committed supporters in his base, like Rogan, to question his competence. And in order to appease Rogan’s ire, he grants FDA approval. RFK Jr.: Do you want to grandstand, or do you want an answer? Auchincloss: I want safety and efficacy to be the standards by which psychedelics are approved, not the president’s attempt to shore up support from his base for a disastrous war in Iran. This should not be Rogan’s decision.”

• Sen. Murray: “What happened to childcare in this budget? RFK Jr: Ok, let’s talk about childcare then instead of the war. Murray: Just so it’s clear, the president is requesting $1.5 trillion in defense which cuts our non-defense incredibly. RFK Jr: It’s not my department.”

• AOC: “We know they’re lying through even their mechanisms. They are upcoding—they are telling us, the public, the govt, Medicare, our systems—that people are sicker than they are so that they can get more money. They’re lowering their reimbursement rates. They’re increasing denials. So we know that these folks are lying. We know that they’re bad actors. And if I’m hearing you correctly, we are giving them more money because they’re saying that they need it?

… Rep. Jim McGovern (D-MA) to Meidas: Q - “Is Kash Patel’s drinking a national security concern? McGovern: Even before I heard he drank, he was a national security concern.”

Another very busy day with multiple congressional hearings going on while we waited to see if Iran was going to Pakistan, watched what Vance was doing, then waited for Trump’s reaction to Iran’s refusal to show up.

Reminder that there is no Bulletin tomorrow because I do my weekly podcast Uncovered where I take a deep dive into the top stores happening right now. If you missed yesterday’s Bulletin, you can find it here. Thank you to all who read, share and subscribe.

… Trump went on CNBC’s Squawk Box for 40 minutes this morning. Trump-supporting host Joe Kernan let him lie with zero pushback as usual:

• Kernan: “By the time Biden left office, inflation was down to about 3%-- TRUMP: No it wasn't. It was down to 5%. And the reason it was down was because I had won the election and it started falling after I won the election and I started getting prices down from right after Nov 5.”

… Inflation was 2.6% in October 2024 - the month before the election. It was 3.0% when Trump took office in January 2025.

• Q: "So to be clear, you're saying you need at least the prospects for a signed deal or else you would resume bombing Iran? Trump: Well, I expect to be bombing because I