Today in Politics, Bulletin 475. 10/6/26

… A new Gallup poll shows that more Americans now identify as Democrats than at any point since 2009. 50% of those polled said they are Democrats or ‘“lean more” toward the Democratic Party, while 39% said the same about the Republican Party - the highest margin for the Democrats since the first quarter of 2009.

… Cook Political: “THREE Senate ratings changes today. We now estimate Democrats will pick up between 2 and 6 seats - squarely within the range of 4 seats they need:

KS Sen: Lean R to Toss Up
NC Sen: Lean D to Likely D
NH Sen: Toss Up to Lean D

… Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball ratings change:

US Senate
Alaska: Toss-up —> Lean D
South Carolina: Safe R —> Likely R
——
US Governor
Alaska: Toss-up —> Lean D
Oregon: Likely D —> Lean D

… Reuters: “Trump’s approval rating held at a record low in recent days, as many Hispanic voters panned his job performance and planned to spurn his ‌Republican Party in next month’s midterm elections, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. Just ‌24% of Hispanic Americans approve of Trump’s ⁠performance in the WH, the lowest share in either of Trump’s two presidential terms.

… Hispanic voters helped propel Trump to victory in the 2024 presidential contest, when he won nearly half the Hispanic vote compared with roughly one-third in the 2020 election. But support for the president has waned in recent months as Americans struggle with high inflation triggered by Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran.”

… NBC: “Getting Latinos to the polls next month is a central push of two of the largest Latino advocacy organizations in the country, the Voto Latino Foundation and the Hispanic Federation. This week, the groups are launching a 6-figure get-out-the-vote operation that specifically targets Texas’ Rio Grande Valley, where they estimate that nearly 316,000 Latinos who could vote did not participate in the 2024 election.

… In 2024, Latino voters in the Valley made history when a majority backed Trump. Since then, many key figures have come out opposing Trump’s policies, including his economic plans and how the admin is carrying out deportations. In addition to those who sat out in 2024, the advocacy groups say nearly 500,000 TX Latinos have turned 18 in the last two years and are now eligible to vote.

… On Sat, the groups will host a community town hall in Edinburg called ‘Juntos en el 956,’ where organizers will assist residents with making plans to vote and answer questions. Claudia Lopez, a social media personality in the Rio Grande Valley, will moderate the town hall. Another televised town hall will follow in cooperation with Telemundo, and an end-of-the-month rally to promote voter turnout is in the works.”

… Houston Chronicle reporter Ben Wermund: “Gov. Greg Abbott says he will not be at the Trump event in San Antonio this week because he has other campaign events already planned.”

… Suddenly they’re all too busy to get on stage with Trump. Wonder why?

… Bloomberg: “With the election 4 weeks away, it’s the explosion in housing costs and record-breaking heating bills that Mainers can’t stop talking about. Democrat Troy Jackson, a 5th-generation logger and former state Senate president, will face off against Republican incumbent Susan Collins on Tues evening in the first debate of a volatile and closely-watched race that’s crucial to either party’s hopes of claiming a Senate majority.

… Top of mind are the state’s rising costs, which stick out even in a midterm season dominated by affordability concerns. Since 2021, home prices in Maine have jumped more than in all but 3 states, pressured by an influx of residents drawn to a laid-back lifestyle and ample coastline.

… And just as nighttime temperatures in much of Maine fall to near freezing, it has never cost more to keep those homes warm since heating oil recently rose to a record. The fuel now averages $5.96 a gallon, up about 80% from last year. That implies a cost of around $1,500 to fill up a standard residential tank that typically will have to be replenished a few times to make it through the winter.”

… Jennifer Perry, a convenience story manager pregnant with her 3rd child: “How is somebody supposed to survive? I don’t understand why it’s the way it is, and why we’re worried about everything else.”

… Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-PA) on CNN: Q - “Is it worth it for your constituents to pay higher prices because of the war in Iran? Mackenzie: Fuel prices were sky high under Biden. Now they’re starting to come down. Host: Diesel is about $3 higher than it was at the beginning of the war. Mackenzie: When refineries are blown up in Russia because of Ukraine that’s what really drives up those prices.”

… Guardian: “US households are paying 62% more for drinking water than they did a decade ago – outpacing inflation, grocery prices and household incomes. Food & Water Watch, a DC-based non-profit, analyzed 2025 billing data from the 500 largest community water systems in the US, which together serve about 155 million people, or 45% of the country’s population.

… Water prices rose 1.6 times faster than overall inflation between 2015 and 2025. Consumer prices increased 39% during that period, compared with a 62% jump in water bills. Water costs also rose more than twice as fast as groceries, which increased 30%, and eggs, which rose 28%. Water bills also rose faster than household incomes, increasing 19% more than the median household income between 2014 and 2024.

… Mary Grant with Food & Water Watch: “Water bills are increasing much faster than many households can keep up with and these escalating water costs impact every corner of the country. Low-income households are being hit the hardest. Corporate water abuses, federal disinvestment and climate change are supercharging water rate hikes across the country.”

… MS NOW’s Stephanie Ruhle interviewed Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) who continues his book tour as he retires from the senate:

• Q - “Why do you think the president is taking this position that affordability is a hoax? Tillis: Uhhh. I think he got bad advice. Q - Why do you talk about advice? He’s the president! You said he’s got great political instincts, and millions of Americans are suffering. Tillis: The biggest problem with the president is that he listens to people who love to tell that that he’s always right. Ruhle: The president has chosen those people.”

• Q - “Why are you blaming Kristi Noem and Pete Hegseth, who you voted to confirm? All of this is happening at the president’s direction. Tillis: I made a decision to support Hegseth after a unanimous vote by Republicans on the Armed Services Committee. But I’m doing his annual review now and it’s not looking good.”

… CNBC: “In a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1932, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall suddenly finds himself in a competitive race with weeks to go until the 2026 midterm elections. Stubborn inflation, blowback from WH trade policies, and a formidable Democratic challenger in megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton have combined to turn ruby-red KS into an unexpected Senate battleground.

… The tightening contest has forced Marshall into a balancing act confronting a growing number of vulnerable Republicans: creating space from Trump on issues that pose risks at home without alienating his base.”

… KS political scientist Bob Beatty: “When a sitting Republican senator in KS starts running away from their leader in the WH, the 5-alarm bell is ringing for the entire party. Loyalty to Washington is becoming a liability when voters are feeling the squeeze at home.”

… Washington Monthly: “As most Americans find a dollar doesn’t go as far as it used to, Republican ad buyers are learning the hard way that millions in dark money funneled to super PACs don’t go as far as money sent directly to candidates.

… We already knew that both Democratic and Republican operatives have found that in most races attack ads against Democrats were not yet ‘moving the needle.’ Part of the reason is that Republicans are selling a bad product, no matter how much money is put into marketing.

…. Voters don’t want to buy more Republican policies that have eaten away at their bank accounts. And when they’re mad about their thinning wallets, they are not easily riled up by appeals to transphobia and Islamophobia.

… But another factor is that, despite their massive war chest, Republicans aren’t dominating the airwaves. AdImpact tallied up not just what the two parties spent on Senate campaigns in nine battlegrounds through the end of Sept, but how much actual advertising that money bought. Republicans outspent Democrats $563 million to $375 million, a 60-40 split.

… But when it came to how often broadcast ads air, the Republican advantage nearly vanished. AdImpact found that ‘Republicans led broadcast spending in 7 of the 9 battlegrounds and by 26% overall but led broadcast airings by just 7%. In TX, a 44% Republican broadcast spending advantage yielded only an 8% airings advantage. Democrats led broadcast airings in OH and NC despite being outspent on broadcast in both states.

… Why aren’t Republican dollars going as far as Democratic dollars? Because the individual Democratic candidates are attracting more campaign cash than their Republican opponents. In turn, Republicans largely rely on PACs, which function independently of the candidates, to carry the campaign load.

… Democrats have long been terrified of being drowned out by super PACs, as these entities lack limits on how much money they can raise and spend. But since, unlike for individual candidates, they don’t get the cheapest rates from broadcast outlets, super PAC dollars don’t go as far.”

Reminder there is no Bulletin tomorrow because I do my weekly podcast Uncovered where we do a deep dive into the top stories of the week. I also really emphasize topics to discuss where I think I have a much different take than mainstream media or conventional wisdom on something.

If you missed yesterday’s Bulletin, you can find it here.

… WaPo: “Most national attention in this year’s midterm elections is focused on congressional and governors’ races. But Democrats are also making a strong push to win power in state legislatures across the country, forcing Republicans to play defense in a terrain they have dominated in recent years.

… Democrats are on offense. They could break up full Republican control in as many as 6 states and win unified control in as many as 7 of their own. Republicans are on their heels, with the chance to disrupt full Democratic control in only two states and pick up full control in as many as 5 states.

… The results in these state races could be more significant to many voters than the outcomes in federal contests, given legislatures’ ability to set policy affecting large aspects of life and business. State legislatures determine policies on such issues as redistricting, abortion, voting, education and taxes.”

… Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee: “2026 is proving to be a once-in-a-generation opportunity for Democrats to shift the balance of power away from Republicans.”

… Trump made a series of posts today complaining again about Fox putting Democratic candidates on the air:

• “Fox spends more time covering the Jihadist and Dumocrat candidates than they do the good old fashioned Republicans. All they talk about is Dumocrat Jihadists like El-Sayed, with his softball interview by Martha MacCallum, and the like. She never interviews me like that. Fox is promoting the Dumocrats, not the Republicans and MAGA. They have totally lost their way!”

• “Fox is long form interviewing the sleazebag, Dan Osborn, right now, who is running against our GREAT Republican Senator, Pete Ricketts, from Nebraska. Why are they doing this??? The ‘other side’ doesn’t give our people any positive exposure or airtime. It is a miracle that I won, the last by a landslide, three Presidential Races!”

… He also said this at his campaign rally:

• “Fox is always putting on Democrats. El-Sayed was just interviewed. They let him talk, talk, talk - they hardly fight him at all. Why are they always putting people on our TV networks. They put on Jessica Tarlov - another loser. They put these voices on and I think it’s really bad. There’s no reason to do it. The other side never has us on TV.”

… Trump called Natalie Harp up on stage at his rally last night and she handed him papers. He watched her as she walked away down the stairs, then turned to the crowd and said: “She reminds me of the Price is Right - thank you, Natalie. This perfect person comes up, hands it, and walks off. We should go on TV with a show.”

… They then flew back to DC where both of them entered the WH late in the evening.

Tasos Katopodis/Getty

… NYT: “CA leaders condemned Trump on Monday night after he appeared to suggest that Iran could ‘take out’ LA and SD if it develops a nuclear weapon. Speaking at a rally in NE, the president sought to justify the Iran war as necessary for ‘keeping the world safe.’ He then suggested there could be strikes on the US, including the Democratic-led CA cities.”

… Trump: “They could take out a city. Let them take - Let them take out Los Angeles. Let them take out San Diego.”

• Gov. Gavin Newsom: “Deranged and dangerous. After sending the National Guard and Marines to occupy CA, Trump is now saying our foreign enemies should ‘take out’ LA and SD.”

• SD Mayor Todd Gloria: “SD is not collateral damage. We are not expendable. And we are never a ‘small price to pay.’ Keep our city out of your reckless war talk.

• LA Mayor Karen Bass: “The president suggested that a foreign govt attack LA. His statements against our city are dangerous and could potentially compromise our safety. The role of a president is to protect the country, not to actively threaten it and encourage attacks on American lives.

• GOP congressional nominee Jim Desmond running in SD: “I vehemently disagree with Trump’s comments. America must stand up to Iran and defend our interests, but the first responsibility of our Commander in Chief is to protect the American people and our homeland. As a Navy veteran, I served to protect Americans, not write off American cities as an acceptable price of war. No American city is expendable, and no American family should ever be treated as collateral damage.

… Republicans were complaining that Trump was taken out of context. Maybe if Trump could speak coherently and stop trying to justify his Iran War that raised prices on thousands of things for Americans with apocalyptic fear mongering and garbled syntax he wouldn’t have to worry about being misinterpreted or taken out of context.

… Former Republican Gov. of SC David Beasley responded to a Trump post referring to SC Democratic senate nominee Annie Andrews as “Annie Tranny” because “she’s in favor of transgender for everyone.” Beasley posted:

• “This is abhorrent. Elections don’t have to be about cruelty and lies. SC deserves better. I urge voters to look at the merits of each candidate and cast their vote accordingly. We must reject politics based on division and hate. While S. Carolinians can strongly disagree with one another, we can do so civilly and with honest intentions for the betterment of our communities and well being of our families.”

… Annie Andrews responded: “As a mom and a pediatrician, I’m in this race to fight for my patients, my 3 kids, and SC. And I’m going to work with anyone to put SC first, because lowering costs and making life better for families across our state is going to take all of us working together. If you care more about your bills than the politics in Washington, this campaign is for you.”

… NBC: “The top Republican super PAC involved in Senate races is planning to spend $5 million in SC. The injection of funds from the Senate Leadership Fund, a group aligned with Sen. John Thune, is the latest sign that the race between GOP Sen. Darline Graham and Democratic pediatrician Annie Andrews is competitive.

… It comes as the Senate map is shifting further in Democrats’ favor, putting Republican-leaning states increasingly in play with less than a month remaining until Election Day. Trump carried SC by 18 points in 2024. The last Democrat elected to represent SC in the Senate was Fritz Hollings, who served from 1966 until 2005.

… CNN: In 7 of the top 10 Senate races, polls show the Democratic nominee taking at least 9% of Republican voters.

… Erie News Now: “Measles cases are continuing to climb across the region, with PA surpassing 1,000 confirmed cases and NY declaring a state disaster emergency amid its own rise in infections. The PA Dept of Health announced that 1,004 measles cases have now been confirmed across 39 counties in 2026. The latest update includes 27 new cases since Oct. 2.

… PA has also recorded 198 hospitalizations and 5 measles-associated deaths this year. State health officials say just 4 of the confirmed cases, less than 1%, have been among vaccinated individuals.”

… Yahoo Finance: “The US trade deficit jumped to more than $100 billion in Aug as importers wrestled with a new round of Trump’s tariffs and continued to bring in billions of dollars’ worth of components for AI data centers. The total gap: $105.6 billion, a 13.8% increase from July’s revised $92.8 billion deficit, the highest level since early 2025.

… Imports rose in August by 4.3%, compared with a 1.4% increase in exports. The US brought in $420.8 billion in total imports in August against $315.2 billion in exports.”

… Capital Economics: “The sharp rise in imports suggests 3rd quarter GDP growth will be well below our current forecast of 4.0%.”

… I was told that the whole purpose of Trump’s tariffs was to bring the trade deficit down to zero by now. Instead it is getting bigger.

… MIT biosecurity professor Kevin Esvelt:

• “If the Irkutsk researcher died of plague, she was presumably unvaccinated and did not receive antibiotics per protocol. Alternatively, the strain was vaccine-evading and antibiotic-resistant. That seldom occurs naturally. Pneumonic plague is only moderately transmissible.

• Russia stated ‘no infectious diseases had been reported among the staff ​of the same plague research institute in Irkutsk over the past 10 days, and extensive testing had found no microorganisms in the deceased woman's body linked to her work.’ Note the phrasing.

• If we take the Russian authorities at their word, it is not plague. But untargeted research-grade sequencing reliably identifies pathogens, and people seldom die of pneumonia without pathogens, let alone 28-year-olds. It would be surprising if they did not know the cause.

• The obvious reason to lock down hospitals and deploy FSB agents and hazmat personnel, which Russia reportedly has done, is to contain a potentially transmissible biological agent before it spreads. The question is why they will not tell the world which one.

• Again, none of this means the Irkutsk pathogen will cause a pandemic. The evidence supports a tragic exposure to a lethal, presumably transmissible pathogen that Russia appears reluctant to publicly identify. The concerning possibility is still only a possibility.”

… I posted on social media yesterday that it was only a matter of time before Republicans concocted a conspiracy to somehow blame Dr. Anthony Fauci for this Russian lab leak. 24 hours later, Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) posted: “I wish we could say with certainty that US govt funding wasn’t involved. I wish we could say with certainty that that the mainstream media wouldn’t cover for Fauci if he provided such funding. Stranger things have happened.”

… At his rally, Trump talked about his latest executive order to allow vehicles to use red dye diesel: “For many years, farm vehicles, construction equipment, and other off road vehicles have used what is know as red dye diesel. Do you know what that is? I don’t know what the hell it is! But whatever it is, it’s supposed to be very good. Does anybody want to explain it?”

… Gas analyst Patrick De Haan:

• “Earlier tonight, Trump signed an executive order that temporarily allows tax-exempt dyed (red) diesel to be used on roads and highways. Trump signed this EO to try and pull diesel prices lower, with GasBuddy showing today's average diesel price of $6.29 per gallon. On paper and in the press, it sounds like it might be significant, especially ahead of the midterms. However, like many things, the paper doesn't always match the intended reality.

• It’s important to note after comments that farmers needed relief. Dyed diesel is already the fuel that farmers had been using for an extensive amount of their operations. It’s also essentially the same fuel as the diesel sold at truck stops. The only addition is red dye, so state police and motor carrier inspectors can see if you’re skirting the taxes. If you’re on public roads as a vehicle, it’s generally a big fine for using off-road dyed diesel and can lead to significant penalties, including tax evasion.

• Farmers, construction crews, off-road vehicles and other users already buy dyed diesel, generally not from a local station, but from a supplier or wholesaler. Dyed diesel is enforced at two levels, and the executive order that Trump issued reaches only one of the two. States have their own motor fuel/diesel taxes, which are often higher than the 24.4c/gal diesel tax, and they have their own laws banning dyed fuel in on-road or highway vehicles. A presidential order can't override state tax law.

• Unless a state acts and relaxes enforcement, running dyed diesel on roads remains illegal under state law, and state inspectors, police and motor carrier officers can still take tank samples and issue fines. Untaxed fuel bought in a dyed-diesel state can still create a tax liability in states that aren't waiving enforcement. Add uncertainty over the tax being deferred, and few compliance departments will risk the 24-cent savings on $6 diesel.”

… WaPo: “After deciding this weekend to block Politico from riding on Air Force One, WH staffers called numerous outlets to ask one to fill the primary print slot for the out-of-town pool rotation. Each of those outlets declined to step in.”

… Lawfare: “Attorneys for Olympian and exonerated Reflecting Pool defendant David Hearn write 25-page letter to Inspector Generals of DOJ and Dept of Interior seeking investigation of the circumstances of Hearn's arrest, detention and indictment.

... Co-written by former DOJ IG Michael Bromwich, the letter notes that Trump has forced out 20 IGs over the past 20 months in favor of ‘politically aligned replacements,’ and says that how this inquiry is handled will be a ‘test of the IG system under this Admin.’”

… Washington Sun: “The Trump meme coin firm has been offering perks such as dinner with President to encourage buying. At the same time, insiders are taking steps to offload their substantial holdings in Trump’s crypto - moving $70 million to be ready to sell.”

… Bloomberg: Russian Says Don Jr. Repaid Him for Wedding Festivities. Umar Kremlev said President Trump’s son had repaid the money the Russian tycoon had spent on post-wedding celebrations he hosted as a gift. Kremlev: “He paid it back, but I didn’t understand why because I don’t consider it some kind of special gift.”