It’s Tuesday. I hope your week is off to a good start. Thanks to everyone who tuned in to last night’s live episode of the MeidasTouch Podcast. If you missed it, you can listen to the full episode now on your favorite podcast apps, like Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Let me fill you in quickly on where things stand right now.
Trump pushed for further escalation on his social media platform last night. Trump threatened that if Iran disrupts oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, the United States will respond “twenty times harder” and destroy targets that would make it “virtually impossible for Iran to ever be built back as a nation again.” The post included a warning that “death, fire, and fury will reign upon them.”
At the same time, reporting from the Wall Street Journal indicates that Trump’s own advisers are quietly urging him to find an exit ramp from the war. They’re increasingly worried about political backlash as the conflict drags on, particularly as the economic fallout grows more visible here at home.
Trump himself said yesterday he thinks the war could end “very soon.” But according to people familiar with his thinking, he has also been surprised and caught off guard that Iran hasn’t folded under the joint U.S.–Israeli military campaign.
And the reality on the ground right now is that Iran is showing absolutely no sign of surrender.
Iranian officials have said outright they are not seeking a ceasefire. Missiles and Shahed drones continue to launch across the region, and the war is spreading into critical energy infrastructure.
Another major oil facility was struck this morning. The massive refinery complex in Ruwais in the United Arab Emirates, one of the largest in the region, halted operations after a drone strike sparked a fire in the industrial area surrounding the plant. That refinery alone can process nearly 900,000 barrels of oil per day. Events like that are exactly why global markets are on edge.
And the war continues to escalate, the messaging from the White House is revealing the depths of their incompetence. Earlier today, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on social media that the U.S. Navy had escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure the continued flow of global oil shipments. Shortly after posting it, Wright deleted the message. So you now have a situation where the president is threatening massive escalation around the Strait of Hormuz while the administration is deleting posts suggesting the U.S. military is already escorting tankers through it.
If you’re an oil market trader trying to interpret signals from Washington right now, good luck.
Meanwhile, the political reality of the war is becoming clearer as polling data comes in. A new analysis highlighted by the New York Times shows Trump’s war with Iran is the least popular American military conflict at its outset in modern history. Public support in the early days of World War II and the Persian Gulf War was overwhelming. Even the initial stages of the Afghanistan war saw strong backing. Trump’s war began with roughly 41 percent support.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s prime minister publicly congratulated Iran’s new supreme leader today following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The message praised the new leadership and expressed confidence Iran would move toward stability and prosperity. For a U.S. administration that has been trying to build a coalition against Iran, that kind of public statement from a nuclear-armed country is not exactly encouraging.
Inside Iran itself, the dynamic appears to be moving in the opposite direction of what the administration predicted. Front-page images from Tehran show massive crowds gathering in support of the new Iranian leadership. Even Iranians who may have opposed the regime previously appear to be rallying behind the country as it faces foreign attacks. That’s a dynamic political scientists have warned about for decades, and one we have seen play out repeatedly. External military pressure often strengthens internal unity rather than weakening regimes.
Another deeply disturbing development continues to hang over the administration as well. New photos published by the New York Times from the February strike on a school in Minab, Iran show weapon debris consistent with a U.S.-made Tomahawk cruise missile. The debris includes visible Department of Defense codes and markings indicating the weapon was manufactured in the United States. That strike killed more than 150 children at the school and nearly 200 people in total.
Yet during a press conference this week, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth accused Iran of targeting schools and hospitals as part of its military tactics. That statement came as the administration continues to refuse to acknowledge what independent investigations and U.S. officials have already suggested—that the missile involved in that strike was American. Yesterday, Trump said that it’s possible Iran has Tomahawk missiles, too. They don’t. The lies are absolutely appalling and depraved.
While the war intensifies, another story surfaced today that raises serious questions about how the war might have unfolded differently. According to Axios, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented Donald Trump with a detailed briefing last August warning that Iran was rapidly improving its Shahed drone technology. Zelensky even offered to partner with the United States to develop counter-drone systems and mass-produce advanced drone defenses in America. The presentation included a map of the Middle East and a warning that Iran’s drone program was evolving quickly. Zelenskyy did this even as the U.S. continuously derided Ukraine and pulled its aid.
The U.S. government declined the offer.
Fast forward to today and those same Iranian drone systems are now shaping the battlefield across the region. At the same time, the Trump family has been investing in drone technology companies hoping to sell equipment to the Pentagon as military demand for drones explodes. And now the United States is begging Ukraine for assistance.
Meanwhile, Trump’s diplomatic circle continues to lean heavily on one particular foreign leader: Vladimir Putin. Trump has repeatedly said that Putin wants to help end the war. And today Trump envoy Steve Witkoff revealed that he and Jared Kushner had a direct conversation with Putin adviser Yuri Ushakov independent of Trump himself. In other words, members of Trump’s inner circle are conducting direct communications with senior Russian officials about the war. The same Russia who is allied with Iran and is actively helping the Iranian regime target American troops, per reporting.
Earlier, Witkoff was asked a straightforward question: how does the war end?
Witkoff admitted he had no idea.
He followed that by arguing Americans should be grateful Trump is president, suggesting the alternative would be a world filled with dozens of nuclear weapons. It’s all so embarrassing and dangerous.
Back on Capitol Hill, House Speaker Mike Johnson gaslighted the public and told reporters that the military operation in Iran is limited in scope and has already been remarkably successful. Johnson said thousands of targets have been struck and suggested the situation could wrap up quickly, because that’s what Trump said.
But events on the ground tell a much different story.
Iran has launched new missile waves toward Israeli territory and continues to strike energy facilities across the region. Explosions were reported live on Iranian state television from Tehran’s Revolution Square today while crowds gathered in support of the new leadership. The images coming out of Iran show defiance, not surrender.
At the same time, reports indicate that American Patriot and THAAD missile defense systems may have been moved from South Korea to the Middle East. South Korean officials have already expressed concern about the redeployment, saying they opposed the withdrawal but had little ability to influence the decision.
And while all of this unfolds overseas, another story back home highlights how the Pentagon has been spending taxpayer money.
A new watchdog report revealed that the Defense Department spent $93 billion in September alone—the largest monthly outlay since 2008. Some of the purchases included $225 million in furniture, millions spent on luxury food items like lobster and ribeye steak, $124,000 for ice-cream machines, $140,000 on doughnuts, and nearly $100,000 for a grand piano installed at a senior official’s home. There were even $12,000 spent on fruit basket stands. Those expenditures came during the same period the Pentagon was rapidly burning through its annual budget before the fiscal year ended.
Taken together, it paints a picture of a government simultaneously waging a volatile war abroad while facing growing scrutiny at home.
Meanwhile, the American people refuse to let Epstein go from the headlines. A statue depicting Donald Trump and Jeffrey Epstein styled like Jack and Rose from Titanic appeared on the National Mall today, showing the two figures standing on a ship’s bow with their arms outstretched in the film’s famous “King of the World” pose. Here are some photos:
So that’s where things stand this Tuesday. We’ll keep following every development as it unfolds. Thanks to everyone for subscribing and sharing our reporting. You make this all possible.
