It’s Wednesday afternoon. I hope your week is going well so far. Before I head into my law class to teach, let me fill you in quickly on where things stand right now, because there’s a lot happening and the situation is moving fast.
The biggest story today continues to be the escalating war with Iran. Despite what Donald Trump and his allies keep claiming publicly, the reality on the ground tells a very different story.
Over the past several hours, three commercial vessels were struck by suspected projectiles near the Strait of Hormuz. According to alerts issued by the UK Maritime Trade Operations security monitor, the incidents occurred within roughly three hours of each other early Wednesday. One cargo vessel, the Express Rome, was hit about 11 nautical miles north of Oman and caught fire, forcing the crew to request assistance and evacuate before the blaze was extinguished. Another ship, the bulk carrier Mayuree Naree, reported being struck roughly 50 nautical miles northwest of Dubai. A third container vessel was also hit and sustained damage, though authorities are still investigating the full extent.
These attacks come as Iranian officials dramatically escalate their warnings about shipping through the strait. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps leadership is now openly threatening vessels linked to the United States, Israel, or their partners, declaring that they will not allow oil shipments to pass through the strait for the benefit of those countries. One Iranian military spokesperson bluntly stated that any vessel carrying such cargo could be considered a legitimate target.
As a reminder, the Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important energy chokepoints on the planet. Roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day, about a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade, normally pass through those waters. Since the conflict began on February 28, that flow has reportedly dropped to less than 10% of normal levels.
And the economic impact is already being felt.
The national average price of diesel in the United States has surged to $4.81 per gallon, the highest level since December 2022. Oil prices themselves are pushing back toward $90 per barrel, with analysts warning that the situation could deteriorate rapidly if shipping disruptions continue.
Iranian officials are also signaling a shift in strategy. Instead of what they previously called “reciprocal strikes,” they now say they are moving toward continuous attacks designed to raise economic pressure on the United States and its allies. Iranian leaders have even floated the possibility of oil reaching $200 per barrel if the conflict intensifies.
At the same time, there are reports of attacks expanding beyond the shipping lanes themselves. Iranian drones reportedly struck Oman’s largest oil storage facility at the Port of Salalah, igniting massive fires in fuel tanks at the MINA Petroleum complex. Video circulating from the scene shows towering flames rising from the facility as emergency crews attempt to contain the damage.
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Now back to my report.
While all of this is happening, we’re also learning more about the devastating Iranian drone strike that hit a U.S. command center in Kuwait at the beginning of the conflict. That attack killed six American service members and injured many others. New reporting from CBS News now indicates the scale of the injuries was far worse than initially disclosed. Dozens of troops suffered burns, brain trauma, and shrapnel wounds.
More than 30 wounded service members remain hospitalized, including patients at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, Brooke Army Medical Center in San Antonio, and Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany. Around 20 of the injured had to be transported to Germany aboard a C-17 military aircraft because their injuries were deemed urgent. Yet, we are learning about all this from media reports. Not from the Trump administration.
Veterans and military experts are also emphasizing a troubling reality: drones are quickly becoming one of the most dangerous threats facing U.S. forces worldwide. Soldiers who survived the Kuwait attack have begun speaking publicly about the moment the drone struck the command center, describing how the explosion tore through the building instantly.
We’re also getting additional confirmation about the bombing of an Iranian school that took place in the initial strikes of the war. According to reporting by The New York Times, a preliminary U.S. military investigation has determined that an American Tomahawk missile strike likely hit the Iranian elementary school due to a targeting error involving outdated intelligence data. Iranian officials say at least 175 people were killed, most of them children, making it one of the most devastating military mistakes of the war. When a reporter asked Trump about the report this morning, Trump responded, “I don’t know about that.”
Meanwhile, the global oil market is reacting with alarm.
In response to the massive supply disruption, the International Energy Agency convened an emergency meeting and announced the largest coordinated oil stock release in its history. Thirty-two member nations—including the United States, Japan, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, South Korea, and Canada—have agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from their strategic reserves in an attempt to stabilize global markets.
This marks only the sixth coordinated emergency release ever undertaken by the agency.
Even with that massive intervention, analysts say the market remains extremely fragile. The pace at which those barrels actually reach the market will depend on how quickly each country implements the drawdown. Japan, for example, has already indicated it plans to release roughly 80 million barrels starting next week.
But there’s a larger concern hanging over this move: emergency reserves are not infinite. If the war continues and shipping disruptions persist, the world could quickly find itself facing even higher prices once those reserves begin to run down.
At the same time, some of Trump’s allies are acknowledging the reality of the situation in unusually blunt terms.
During a CNN appearance, Senator Rick Scott was asked why the United States Navy is not escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz, despite earlier assurances from administration officials that such protections would be provided. Scott admitted he could not explain the decision and warned that elevated prices could persist for quite some time.
Even voices within Trump’s broader media circle are raising alarms. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich recently warned that if the United States cannot maintain open shipping lanes in the strait, the war could ultimately be viewed as an American defeat.
The economic ripple effects are already spreading far beyond the energy sector.
American farmers are now facing another surge in costs as fertilizer prices skyrocket. A significant portion of global fertilizer production relies on inputs from the Middle East, and the disruption caused by the war is hitting at a particularly sensitive moment. Many U.S. farmers are currently purchasing fertilizer and preparing their fields ahead of the spring planting season. Rising prices are adding yet another financial strain to an industry that has already been dealing with falling crop prices and trade disruptions.
And while the global economy is dealing with these shocks, the political environment in Washington remains chaotic as it’s been since Trump stepped into the Oval.
Donald Trump has spent much of the day posting on social media about unrelated grievances, including attacks on Republican Congressman Thomas Massie, simply because Massie pushed for the release of the Epstein files. Trump also amplified messages attacking the Supreme Court and continued promoting conspiracy theories about the 2020 election.
At the same time, Trump is heading to Kentucky today to campaign against Massie in the upcoming Republican primary. Yes, in the midst of the war, this is Trump’s priority.
There are also signs of strain in Trump’s diplomatic relationships abroad. According to Bloomberg reporting, officials in Beijing are increasingly frustrated with the lack of preparation surrounding an upcoming summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. With only weeks remaining before the meeting, Chinese officials reportedly believe the United States has failed to adequately prepare the diplomatic groundwork normally required for such a high-profile visit. As a result, the summit could end up focusing narrowly on trade issues while leaving major geopolitical and security concerns unresolved.
In short, we’re seeing a combination of military escalation, economic disruption, and political disarray all unfolding at the same time.
It’s time for me to teach my class! I hope this caught you up on today’s top stories. I’ll keep tracking all of these developments and bring you more updates as they come in. Remember to tune into the MeidasTouch YouTube channel and podcast for more updates throughout the day. Thanks for being a subscriber to the Meidas+ Substack!
