Ken Harbaugh sits down with Jacob Kaarsbo, former senior analyst and Middle East chief at the Danish Defense Intelligence Service and one of Europe’s foremost experts on NATO’s threat environment, for a sobering assessment of an alliance under siege from within.
Kaarsbo doesn’t mince words about Trump’s contradictory demands on NATO allies — begging for help reopening the Strait of Hormuz one day, threatening to abandon the alliance over Greenland the next. He calls it unhinged, and says European capitals have finally stopped trying to placate Trump by “calling him daddy.” The turning point was what Kaarsbo calls the “Greenland moment,” when Denmark and its European allies quietly prepared to physically defend the island against a potential U.S. incursion — bringing explosives to destroy runways, ammunition, and blood supplies for their troops. The lesson, Kaarsbo tells Harbaugh, is that the Trump regime can be deterred, but only when allies show they are prepared to pay the price.
The conversation turns to the Iran war and what Kaarsbo describes as a catastrophic strategic own-goal. Tehran’s demonstrated ability to close the Strait of Hormuz is a genie that cannot be put back in the bottle. The Gulf states, he argues, are quietly recognizing that America will not defend them — just as Washington failed to respond when Iran struck Saudi Arabia in 2019 — and Iran is calibrating escalating attacks on Kuwaiti oil infrastructure and Saudi industrial zones to remind Trump of exactly how much more pain it can inflict. The U.S. Fifth Fleet’s future in Bahrain, Kaarsbo suggests, is in serious doubt.
Harbaugh and Kaarsbo also discuss Trump’s chilling social media post declaring that “a whole civilization will die tonight,” which Kaarsbo compares to Nixon’s madman theory — except Trump is not playing a role. He says plainly that sane people would conclude such a president should be removed. The two also explore Ukraine’s emerging role as the democratic world’s most capable counter-drone innovator, Zelensky’s diplomatic outreach to Gulf rulers hedging away from Washington, and the trap Europe faces if America retains command of NATO’s C2 structure without the will to defend the alliance.
Kaarsbo closes with a warning Harbaugh has been sounding for months: 2026 is the year everything hinges on. Trump will not quietly accept a midterm loss, and Europe — and American democracy — should prepare accordingly.
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