OK, this part of your reply is new information to me if I understand it correctly: << The media and the parties pick the "swing states" based on the number of registered voters in each state and the closeness in those numbers - but they have been surprised many times that registered voters by party does NOT necessarily determine the outc…
OK, this part of your reply is new information to me if I understand it correctly: << The media and the parties pick the "swing states" based on the number of registered voters in each state and the closeness in those numbers - but they have been surprised many times that registered voters by party does NOT necessarily determine the outcome of an election.>> So does this mean that ANY state can become a swing state such that (to take as an example, a so-called red state), if more people vote for the Democrat, than for the Republican candidate and therefore the Electoral College voters for that state must vote for the Democrat, that it has become a swing state at least for that election? My apologies if that is a stupid question, and thank you for your time.
No question is a stupid question.... In my life time, the swing states have moved around in the US. During the 2000 election, Florida was a swing state, believe it or not. Why? Because they had just as many Democrats registered to vote as they did Republicans registered to vote + the left leaning independents and the right leaning independents. A Swing State becomes a swing state because the party affiliations of registered voters in that state is too close to "guess" how they are mostly going to vote.
A purple state is one where the numbers of registered voters make the "political pundits/analysts" unsure if the state will vote in the majority for the Democrat or the Republican.
Previous elections can make a state a swing state, but the analysts look at registered voters. In 2028, we could have different swing states than the 7 that we have had in the past few elections, but people would have to 1) move to other states, or 2) change their party affiliation on their voter registration, or 3) more people move to a state and register with both parties - it's all about registered voters.
Example: California has a large number of Democrats and a larger number of Republicans - but the Democrats so far outnumber the Republicans that the likelihood of it becoming a swing state in my lifetime is slim to none.
Maine, on the other hand, has been a "red state" for awhile, and I think it is a "mix" or purple state leaning Democrat - but could become a Swing state if enough of a change takes place. Georgia could become a swing state, and even Florida. It's all in the numbers of registered voters in each party, including independents, and other parties.
OK, this part of your reply is new information to me if I understand it correctly: << The media and the parties pick the "swing states" based on the number of registered voters in each state and the closeness in those numbers - but they have been surprised many times that registered voters by party does NOT necessarily determine the outcome of an election.>> So does this mean that ANY state can become a swing state such that (to take as an example, a so-called red state), if more people vote for the Democrat, than for the Republican candidate and therefore the Electoral College voters for that state must vote for the Democrat, that it has become a swing state at least for that election? My apologies if that is a stupid question, and thank you for your time.
No question is a stupid question.... In my life time, the swing states have moved around in the US. During the 2000 election, Florida was a swing state, believe it or not. Why? Because they had just as many Democrats registered to vote as they did Republicans registered to vote + the left leaning independents and the right leaning independents. A Swing State becomes a swing state because the party affiliations of registered voters in that state is too close to "guess" how they are mostly going to vote.
A purple state is one where the numbers of registered voters make the "political pundits/analysts" unsure if the state will vote in the majority for the Democrat or the Republican.
Previous elections can make a state a swing state, but the analysts look at registered voters. In 2028, we could have different swing states than the 7 that we have had in the past few elections, but people would have to 1) move to other states, or 2) change their party affiliation on their voter registration, or 3) more people move to a state and register with both parties - it's all about registered voters.
Example: California has a large number of Democrats and a larger number of Republicans - but the Democrats so far outnumber the Republicans that the likelihood of it becoming a swing state in my lifetime is slim to none.
Maine, on the other hand, has been a "red state" for awhile, and I think it is a "mix" or purple state leaning Democrat - but could become a Swing state if enough of a change takes place. Georgia could become a swing state, and even Florida. It's all in the numbers of registered voters in each party, including independents, and other parties.
I hope this helps answer your question.